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PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 - Primoz Roglic vs Sepp Kuss vs João Almeida and Adam Yates
CyclingFriday, 16 August 2024 at 10:46
The Vuelta a Espana starts on the 17th of August and finishes on the 8th of September. It is the final Grand Tour of the season and, like every year, it will feature a luxurious startlist packed with climbers, sprinters and classics riders looking for their final opportunity to win big in a Grand Tour. We preview the race ahead.
The three weeks will be having over 3200 kilometers in distance and over 61.000 meters of altitude climbed. This will surpass those of the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France, effectively making it the most difficult Grand Tour of the season which should also include very hot and difficult weather conditions.
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Stage 1 (ITT): Lisbon - Lisbon, 11.8 kilometers
The race starts off with an 11-kilometer long time-trial in the capital of Portugal: Lisbon. It is a completely flat and straightforward time-trial by the coast where the specialists can take advantage of their specialty to take the first red jersey, whilst the GC fight begins right on day 1.
Stage 2: Cascais - Ourém, 195 kilometers
Stage 2 will start in the outskirts of Lisbon in the city of Cascais and finish in Ourém. A first opportunity for the sprinters but as is traditional in Portugal, there will be plenty of small climbs and likely a lot of heat making it harder for the fast men.
Stage 3: Lousã - Castelo Branco, 189.3 kilometers
The third day of racing won't be too different. On paper a day designed for the sprinters but with a hilly start and a few climbs during the day that, together with the heat, will throw in quite a lot of obstacles for those who struggle outside of the flat roads.
Stage 4: Plasencia - Pico Villuercas, 170.6 kilometers
The riders make their way into Spain and stage 4 will immediately be a day that is very important for the overall classification. The first mountainous day, the first summit finish and in reality an outright very hard day. Two long climbs early in the day and the summit finish at Pico Villuercas. The final ascent is 14 kilometers long but features a 3-kilometer section at an insane 13% average gradient. Huge gaps are expected.
Stage 5: Fuente del Maestre - Sevilla, 177.8 kilometers
A day to resettle and reorganize. From Fuente del Maestre to Sevilla the profile won't be completely flat but the sprinters should have their way.
Stage 6: Carrefour Sur. Jerez de la Frontera - Yunquera, 186.2 kilometers
A traditional type of Vuelta stage. The sixth day of racing finishes in Yunquera on what is a day packed with different types of climbs. Lots of scenarios can play out whilst the slight 9-kilometer climb provides opportunities for puncheurs and climbers alike to do what they know best.
Stage 7: Archidona - Córdoba, 181.2 kilometers
Stage 7 is another tricky hilly day. Almost completely flat with the exception of the appropriately named Alto del 14%. Not a brutal climb but it provides an opportunity for attacks whilst the descent has seen spectacular attacks in the past as well before the flat finale in Córdoba.
Stage 8: Úbeda - Cazorla, 159.3 kilometers
Stage 8 sees the riders go inland deep into Andaluzia for another day in the isolated and vast hills. This day features a hilltop finish in Cazorla which is 4.8 kilometers long at 7.2%.
Stage 9: Motril - Granada, 179.3 kilometers
Stage 9 is the second day in the mountains and the toughest so far. It is a day with three categorized and all of them are brutal. Alto del Purche opens things up with 8.9 kilometers at 8% and then quickly the double ascent of the Alto de Hazallanas which is 7 kilometers at almost 10% - with gradients that are quite higher at points. Including the many small climbs throughout the day, the last day of the first week is designed to create huge differences.
Stage 10: Ponteareas - Baiona, 160.1 kilometers
The first day of the second week sees the riders in Galicia for a day in the mountains. They won't be too difficult, but there will be a sequence of climbs that make it very likely for a breakaway to succeed. GC action is also possible on the rugged finale into Baiona.
Stage 11: Padrón - Padrón, 167 kilometers
Stage 11 is another hilly day in the region, starting and finishing in the city of Padrón. A day that features a very steep climb close to the finish where the GC contenders will be tested on more explosive terrain.
Stage 12: Ourense - Esación de Montaña de Manzaneda, 137.1 kilometers
Stage 12 is an interesting day, with 'rompe-piernas' roads all day long - plenty small ascents but none are actually categorized - and then a long but shallow summit finish. The short stage has a summit finish in Manzaneda atop a climb that is 16 kilometers long at 5%.
Stage 13: Lugo - Puerto de Ancares, 176.2 kilometers
A brutal day of racing, but only the first of 4 in the Asturias. Stage 13 starts in the city of Lugo but heads deep into the mountains and features a summit finish on the very steep Puerto de Ancares which features 7.5 kilometers at 9%.
Stage 14: Villafranca del Bierzo - Villablino, 200.7 kilometers
Stage 14 is an interesting day in the mountains Certainly one for the breakaway, but it does feature a climb where a lot can happen. Before the finale in Villablino, the peloton tackles the ascent of Leitariegos which is 22.8 kilometers long at 4.5%.
Stage 15: Infiesto - Cuitu Negru, 143.3 kilometers
Two ascents of the difficult Alto de la Colladella which is 7.5 kilometers long at 8% and a summit finish at Cuitu Negru. This is what the final day of the second week holds, the summit finish was used only once back in 2012 and it is one of the hardest in pro cycling. 19 kilometers at 7% but the final kilometers feature inconsistent gradients, and the ramps go above 20% on several occasions including up to the finish line.
Stage 16: Luanco - Lagos de Covadonga, 182 kilometers
The third week starts with the final day of high mountains in the Asturias and it doesn't get any easier. Three difficult steep climbs and the last of which is the famous Lagos de Covadonga. The final climb is 12 kilometers long at 7% but it is important to note that there are several flat and downhill sections in the final kilometers that lower the average,
Stage 17: Arnuero - Santander, 140.1 kilometers
On paper this is the final opportunity for the sprinters but in traditional Vuelta style, they will have to climb a lot to be able to contest for victory. A very short stage with an uphill start, it favours the breakaway's chances. In the first half of the day there are two difficult categorized climbs to tackle before the final flat run-up to Santander.
Stage 18: Vitoria-Gasteiz - Maetzu - Parque Natural de Izki, 179.5 kilometers
A day in the hills but it's quite difficult to predict a winner. The breakaway have terrain to thrive here, the whole day is hilly and the final half features several climbs of different lengths where we can expect explosive racing.
Stage 19: Logroño - Alto de Moncalvillo, 173.9 kilometers
The riders head east and stage 19 is an unusually flat day on the bike. That is, until the summit finish to the Alto de Moncalvillo. The final ascent is 8.6 kilometers long at 9% and is difficult enough to create big differences.
Stage 20. Villarcayo - Picón Blanco, 172.1 kilometers
The queen stage is the final one in the mountains. Vuelta organizers went crazy with this one, packing in 5000 meters of climbing in only 172 kilometers. It will be in Burgos that the race will be decided. Seven categorized climbs after an uphill start and the summit finish at the very hard Picón Blanco which is 8 kilometers long at 9%.
Stage 21 (ITT): Madrid - Madrid, 25.4 kilometers
The race ends in Madrid again this year but not with a stage suited to the sprinters. Instead, there will ne a 25-kilometer time-trial where the GC contenders will have their final battle for the overall classification.
The Favourites
BORA - One of the strong teams at the start here, and one of the few fully focused in the overall classification. This may give great benefit to the German team. Obviously, Primoz Roglic is the rider most will have their eyes on as the Slovenian continues to have the big reputation he earned. Winner of the Dauphiné this year, he looked to have arrived at the Tour de France with his best form but as was the case in previous years, abandoned after a crash. He suffered a fracture in the lower back which has hampered his preparation for the Vuelta. He is known to reach good form without racing and as a three-time winner of this race he knows exactly how to win and the climbs frequently suit him. It will be interesting to follow his evolution in the race.
The lineup features Aleksandr Vlasov who also raced and abandoned the Tour alongside Roglic after a separate crash, the Russian rider has ridden a very strong season and will be one of the three contenders for the podium or more for the team. The third is Daniel Martínez, second to Tadej Pogacar at the Giro this season and BORA's new GT card, who can ride the time-trials very well and packs a strong sprint as well. The team has quality climbers in Florian Lipowitz and Giovanni Aleotti to support this big set of leaders.
UAE - UAE always pack in a big amount of leaders in stage-races and this is no exception. One rouleur as a domestique and seven strong climbers. The plan is to attack the mountains, even without Tadej Pogacar and Juan Ayuso who was denied the participation in the race. In the lead will be João Almeida and Adam Yates who dominated the Tour de Suisse together and finished fourth and sixth respectively at the Tour de France despite riding in support of Pogacar. Both are experienced and very consistent Grand Tour riders; strong climbers and Almeida specifically a specialist against the clock.
The team brings in Isaac Del Toro on his Grand Tour debut, an absolute wildcard, winner of the Tour de l'Avenir last year and already showing great signs this season. He could match Pogacar and Ayuso's performance at their debut Vuelta where they also finished on the podium. In Marc Soler, Pavel Sivakov, Brandon McNulty and Jay Vine UAE have a group of four climbers who will likely balance around domestique and stage hunting ambitions - but all four can in their best day climb with the very best in the peloton realistically. What can be said... This is an immensely strong climbing team and they will certainly use these cards to put pressure on rival teams.
Sepp Kuss - The defending champion last year benefited from team tactics, but his victory was fully worthy as he looked superior to all non-Visma climbers in the peloton. It is a difficult task to bring in the GC title again but the American will be protected by his team as the sole leader and, after missing out on the Tour de France, comes in with specific preparation for the Vuelta. A race and country he loves, a race for the pure climbers, and being backed by riders such as Cian Uijtdebroeks, Wout van Aert and Attila Valter, Visma can certainly do great things.
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INEOS - No Egan Bernal at the start after the team changed his schedule, but we do have Carlos Rodríguez coming in for his second Grand Tour of the season. How will he handle preparation and fatigue is certainly a valid question, so it won't be an easy task for the young Spanish rider. But INEOS are very experienced and have a very strong team. Thymen Arensman and Laurens de Plus can realistically also fight for the overall classification but also help the team match the depth of BORA and UAE. With special riders such as Jhonatan Narváez and Joshua Tarling coming in as well, the team has the cards to play some unusual tactics in unexpected ways that can be beneficial to them.
Richard Carapaz - The Ecuadorian is coming in to fight for the overall classification, he has said so himself. Since joining EF he has never again managed to fight for a result in a Grand Tour, but at this Tour de France he showed his very best level by taking on the yellow jersey in the first week, winning a stage in the final one and winning the KOM classification. He has come close to winning the Vuelta in the past and that is his goal, he won't settle for stage hunting here. EF have the disadvantage of having a team that is no match for those above, but much of the race will be decided in the very hard and numerous summit finishes where by himself he can do damage.
Lidl - Trek - Lidl have an interesting team. It is very strong, with quality climbers, puncheurs and rouleurs supporting three riders that may have GC ambitions. Giulio Ciccone may focus on stage wins after already fighting for the Top10 throughout the whole Giro. We have Tao Geoghegan Hart who will look to show off his best legs after an injury took him out of the Tour, but mainly we must eye Mattias Skjelmose. The Dane is not a proven Grand Tour contender but has prepared the second half of the season around the Vuelta and is looking to prove himself. Trek can certainly support this, he has finished on the podium of the Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Suisse and finished fourth at Paris-Nice (with a stage win) this year which is more than enough prove that he is a quality stage-racer.
Mikel Landa - The Basque climber finished fifth at the Tour de France and honestly, I felt like it was his best Grand Tour ride ever. Despite the injuries suffered in April, Landa - in a secondary position in the team - didn't lose any time in unnecessary situations, held his own very well in the gravel stage and time-trials and climbed at his best ever level in the mountains. He was also very consistent throughout the whole race. The question is if he brings the same form here, sometimes he does not manage to do so. But... If he does, he will certainly be a contender for the overall win.
Enric Mas - The Spaniard is a wildcard. Three times second at the Vuelta and leading the home team, there will not be many riders with as much pressure as him. In 2022 he came close to breaking Remco Evenepoel, and last year he was sixth in a Visma-dominated field. Say what you want but in the Vuelta this man always turns into a very consistent and very strong climber. Often the issue is the lack of team, but this year with Einer Rubio, Nairo Quintana and Oier Lazkano backing him up Movistar legitimately can aim to be there with numbers on the key moments. Mas had a bad start to the Tour de France but looked very good in the final week. If he can put out his best numbers he can fight for the victory in this field.
Antonio Tiberi - The Bahrain rider was someone who promised to become a Grand Tour contender and he already done so. At the Giro d'Italia he finished fifth with a very consistent ride. He will be a contender for a similar result here, specially with his strong time-trial. But don't expect Bahrain to be at the front working or for him to be putting on attacks; it is a very modest collective and the Italian likes to race under the radar of the big men.
Decathlon - Decathlon have in my opinion a surprisingly strong team here, and are playing their cards right. Ben O'Connor finished fourth at the Giro, proving he's still got it when it comes to fighting for Grand Tours and with the same level he will be able to fight for the podium here. Felix Gall had a more difficult Tour but overall he was always there in the mountains and could greatly benefit from this brutal Vuelta that features plenty long and steep climbs just as he likes them. The team has Valentin Paret-Peintre, Victor Lafay and Geoffrey Bouchard also present; they will likely focus on stage wins but definitely have the collective to also play their cards in the GC fight.
A few more riders will target the overall classification. Usually the Vuelta is more open to surprises however I must say that with the amount of climbing it will be hard for someone to be able to do that this year. We have solid Top10 contenders though in the likes of Eddie Dunbar, Lorenzo Fortunato, Guillaume Martin, Louis Meintjes and Cristián Rodríguez, all pure climbers who benefit from a race as hard as this. It will also be interesting to see the youngsters Lennert van Eetvelt, Max Poole and Matthew Riccitello who could aim for the GC and prove their worth as Grand Tour riders.
Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2024 overall classification:
*** João Almeida, Primoz Roglic
** Adam Yates, Daniel Martínez, Sepp Kuss, Carlos Rodríguez
* Aleksandr Vlasov, Thymen Arensman, Laurens de Plus, Mattias Skjelmose, Richard Carapaz, Mikel Landa, Antonio Tiberi, Ben O'Connor, Felix Gall, Enric Mas, Isaac Del Toro
Pick: João Almeida
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