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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 7 - Time-trial battle between Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic
CyclingFriday, 05 July 2024 at 15:21
The overall classification contenders at the Tour de France face a new and very important test. We preview stage 7 of the Tour, the first time-trial of the race and in all honesty the one where the biggest differences may be made. It's one of the most important stages of the first week.
The first time-trial of the race. The Tour has steered away from flat time-trials but this is the one, if you could call it that. There is a small ascent and descent halfway through the 25-kilometer course ending in Gevrey-Chambertin, but most of the route will allow the specialists to make some differences.
Stage 7 (ITT): Nuits-Saint-Georges - Gevrey-Chambertin, 25 kilometers
The course is not technical in any way - except for the final meters which have two corners. There is a small hilltop of 1.6 kilometers at 6.5% between intermediate points 1 and 2 followed by a plateau. Big efforts will be set here, as the descent after allows for some rest. Tactics will matter on the day.
The descent will require some caution because of the high speeds whilst the final kilometers will be completely flat.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 7
A nice warm day with nothing but a tiny southern breeze. It will not affect the riders on the day.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The man to beat? Form wise Pogacar is on the spot and we don't really need any more evidence that he will do good against the clock. What he will want is to gain more time on Jonas Vingegaard and I think he can do it. The time-trial isn't perfect to his characteristics but he can do well in any kind of TT. He may go for the stage win if he is strong enough on the day.
Jonas Vingegaard - A shoulder injury ahead of the Tour was less than ideal way to prepare for the race, but in the training camp he already returned to training on the bike. I think he will do good, losing meaningless time or perhaps even gain seconds on a few rivals; but it's not too likely. I think he will want to keep the GC as it is, as was the case in other stages.
Remco Evenepoel - The time-trial World Champion is flying against the clock and even though he wasn't in perfect form, he decimated the GC field on the Dauphiné. Thus far, we have seen the best Evenepoel in the first days of the Tour and I think he will be able to put time onto his rivals here.
Primoz Roglic - He was third in the time-trial on the Dauphiné which I'd recon is the best indicator ahead of the Tour. In an explosive hilly time-trial I think Roglic has the legs to make a serious bid for the win but I think here he will fight for minor places and reducing time losses. Small ones however, I think he will gain when it comes to a fight for the podium for sure to a few rivals.
We've got a few non-GC riders who can do quite well on this day, although it will be hard to match the form and quality of the main favourites (for GC too). Wout van Aert is definitely one of them, although I'd argue that it'll be difficult without optimal form - with perfect form it would already be rather difficult. Stefan Küng is also a certain shot to fight for the win specially as he's been saving himself throughout the week... Other riders who could do well are Derek Gee, Bruno Armirail, Mads Pedersen, Nelson Oliveira, Kévin Vauquelin, Oier Lazkano, Soren Waerenskjold, Geraint Thomas and Stefan Bissegger. There's room for others but at the same time, none of these can realistically win and it would be smarter to save legs for a different day.
From the other GC riders, of the Top15 specifically, I would expect gaps such as follows (with my bet on the winner being Remco Evenepoel):
0:20 - Juan Ayuso
0:45 - João Almeida
0:45 - Matteo Jorgenson
1:15 - Carlos Rodríguez
1:30 - Adam Yates
1:40 - Aleksandr Vlasov
2:00 - Egan Bernal
2:20 - Giulio Ciccone
2:45 - Santiago Buitrago
3:00 - Mikel Landa
3:30 - Felix Gall
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 7:
*** Remco Evenepoel, Tadej Pogacar
** Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic, Juan Ayuso, Stefan Küng
* Wout van Aert, João Almeida, Matteo Jorgenson, Bruno Armirail, Geraint Thomas, Stefan Bissegger, Soren Waerenskjold
Pick: Remco Evenepoel
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