PREVIEW | 2024 European Championships Men's Elite Road Race - Can Mathieu van der Poel break the race or will the sprinters take the title?
Cycling
On the 15th of September some of the world's best classics riders and sprinters will be in Belgium to fight for the European Championships. This is one of the most prestigious races of the year and is a race that hands out a special jersey. We preview the race ahead.
1200 meters of climbing only in a 223-kilometer long route; these numbers certainly link up with the idea that a sprint could very well decide the race, despite the few difficulties. It is a race that takes place in Limburg; starting in Heusden-Zolder and ending in the city of Hasselt with a completely flat start and finale.
In the bulk of the route, organizers have inserted a few difficulties, that could make the race exciting. We will have three laps of a circuit that includes a few hills and cobbled sectors. Most notable are the two cobbled sectors Manshoven and Op de Kriezel. The first of which is 1.3 kilometers long and goes up to 6% in it's finale. It ends with 124, 91.5 and 59 kilometers to go.
The second climb comes right after, only a few kilometers after. That one is a completely straight line sector which features a constant 3/4% gradient. It's not brutal, but it's hard enough to make an attack and create some gaps. Whether these can then be taken to the line is a different question however... This climb ends with 119.5, 87 and 54.5 kilometers to go. Over 1 hour of racing still left to go after finishing it for the final time.
In the circuit there are three other small hilltops after the sectors, they are 600 meters at 4.8%; 700 meters at 4.3% (and the third one we do not know, but it is a bit longer and less steep). Realistically however these are climbs that will be ridden very fast and it's hard to make a difference in them. There will be a small cobbled sector not far from the finish (Printhagendreef) but it is only 500 meters long and shouldn't be too important, coming with 25.5 kilometers to the finish.
Likely the race will be decided in a sprint in the city of Hasselt. The final kilometers are completely straightforward but in a not too wide road. There is nothing technical or meaningful to analyse; it will all be a matter of timing for the leadouts and it will be hard for small groups to hang on to the lead if we have a full-speed peloton on the move.
The Weather
Around 18 degrees maximum, cloudy weather and nothing but a tiny northwestern breeze. The weather won't really impact the race in any way honestly.
The Sprinters
Belgium - The strongest team of the race perhaps, but this may come as somewhat of a disadvantage. Belgium will always have responsibilities to chase here because they bring three top sprinters. Even in the absence of Wout van Aert we've got Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier - both strong victory contenders - and also a Jordi Meeus that won't settle for leadout duties. It's going to be a very interesting team dynamic, a big risk for the national team that decided to give all it's main sprinters a chance. But they will not work for each other and I reckon they won't want to answer to attacks in the cobbles either. They will have to find alliances with other teams that will be interested in a sprint.
Jonathan Milan - Italy will certainly be the main one. Jonathan Milan is in incredible form this year he has proved to be perhaps the strongest sprinter in the peloton and won twice at the recent Renewi Tour. Italy has strong riders to go on the attack or counter such as Matteo Trentin on time-trial winner Edoardo Affini; but honestly I think the eight-rider team should fully commit to a sprint as the team is very strong and has one certain and very solid leader. With Simone Consonni and Davide Ballerini also as premium leadouts this can certainly work to perfection.
We've got BEMER Cyclassics winner Olav Kooij coming in as a very dangerous man as well, with Danny van Poppel and possible Mathieu van der Poel as leadouts and a race that suits him well with some difficulties involved. The likes of Arnaud Démare, Alexander Kristoff and Tobias Lund Andresen should also enjoy the cobbled sectors and the fatigue that will come from them; whilst we've got other outsider sprinters present such as Pavel Bittner, Jon Aberasturi, Max Walscheid, Emils Liepins and Stanislaw Aniolkowski.
The Classics Riders
Mads Pedersen - Tobias Lund Andresen is a good option for a sprint and so is Mads Pedersen but the latter will not be afraid to go on the attack either. Furthermore, he is the ideal kind of rider to attack with van der Poel taking into consideration that he has the bravery, he has the climbing legs, the engine and an equally strong teammate for a sprint... The Danes should want to attack this race with their eight-man team.
Mathieu van der Poel - The man most will keep an eye out when it comes to attacks. Sadly for the Dutchman, this is not a race that is very selective, and so if he can't make 1 decisive attack with 1/2 riders that will go all-out with him, then he will be followed and not allowed to attack. Even if not in his best form he is certain to try on the hills and is always a dangerous man, but we will quite possible see him in leadout duties in the end for Olav Kooij.
A few teams will not really have sprinters on board, or will have some that don't give much promise in such a luxurious field, and so will have to focus on attacking the race or even putting several riders in the breakaway. Spain and Switzerland for example don't have realistic chances of a podium, and some others can aim for a podium at best.
The French have Christophe Laporte who can be a very valuable rider for Mathieu van der Poel or in fact other attackers - this is a race where the decisive attack may come at any point, specially if they feature a rider from the main teams which can cause the peloton to not collaborate properly, there's always a lot of personal ambitions in a race like this... The likes of Jonas Abrahamsen, Nils Politt and Stefan Bissegger in my opinion are extremely dangerous if they go off the front, and with the climbs not being very selective plenty riders can do this sort of move.
Prediction 2024 Men's Elite Road Race European Championships:
*** Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen, Olav Kooij
** Tim Merlier, Mads Pedersen
* Mathieu van der Poel, Christophe Laporte, Jordi Meeus, Tobias Lund Andresen, Alexander Kristoff, Pavel Bittner, Arnaud Démare
Pick: Jonathan Milan
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