PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 18 - Breakaway bonanza the day before the queen stage

The 18th stage of the Tour de France is the final opportunity for everyone who is not a pure climber to win in this race. We preview a day of racing that takes place fully within the Alps but in reality misses any big climbs and provides a perfect launchpad for breakaways to succeed.

An interesting hilly day in the Alps, starting in Gap and finishing in Barcelonnette. The race organizers avoided adding any major climb to the day, but instead some small ascents. This is a day where a breakaway victory is almost certain, but some of the sprinters can climb and certainly a few teams may want to try and control the race for a final shot at a sprint victory.

All in all a very unusual day for a final week of the Tour, but that is a complement. It's a relatively novelty, a day fully in the Alps but showcasing some smaller climbs and purposefully avoiding high mountains so that it's a stage open for dozens of riders to be able to fight for a victory. And how the stage will be decided is a complete unknown.

The riders face a small hilltop right from the start of the stage which may see the breakaway formed right there. If not, the 14-kilometer climb that follows (only 4 kilometers are officially categorized, for some reason) should do the trick. Strong climbers, but also classics riders and rouleurs can move off the front here, as the gradients are never very steep.

Throughout the day then are a few non-steep, moderately hard ascents where attacks can come:

122.5Km to go - 2.2Km; 6.5%

106Km to go - 2.6Km; 6.1%

83Km to go - 5.2Km; 3.7%

59Km to go - 7.1Km; 5.6%

41Km to go - 3.5Km; 5.3%

24.5Km to go - 2.7Km; 4.5%

Note that this is the Tour de France, with brilliant climbers everywhere - both in and out of the GC battle. Destroying a group on climbs like this will not happen, but small groups can move off the front and then collaborate. But just as likely to succeed are attacks inbetween the ascents, with riders who can then survive the climbs. Anything can happen really, and different kinds of riders will play to their own strengths.

It is unlikely, but possible that in the peloton a couple teams try to control things and bring it back to a sprint, as the terrain is not brutal and if the breakaway is not too strong, it can be controlled. The final 28 kilometers are on a slight ride but the final kilometers are flat into Barecelonnette. The sprint, if it happens, is also flat.

The Weather

A headwind in the first flat kilometers of the stage, but from there on a rather meaningless western breeze throughout the day, which will mostly come as a crosswind.

The Favourites

All about the breakaway. This is not a stage where a bunch sprint will decide the day as at this point in the race the teams have lost many riders, sprinter teams are fatigued, for most this is the last real opportunity to win so the start of the stage will be rather wild, and lastly the climb at the start of the day is hard enough to really explode things. It doesn't mean we won't see sprinters in action, Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay will try to be in the breakaway to fight for the points classification, both to snatch points in the intermediate sprint mainly but even a stage result isn't impossible as the stage isn't too difficult.

GC riders know this is a breakaway day and so some may try to get in there which can create some danger for a few teams. 180 kilometers in the hills with no team wanting to control the race means a gap can very quickly expand. Matteo Jorgenson may try to be in the break for Visma and I expect Adam Yates specifically to try and follow him. The likes of Simon Yates, Steff Cras, Laures de Plus and Guillaume Martin could threaten the Top10 if the gap grows enough, but this is not too likely.

The reality is that it is all about the stage win. Fatigue management and form are also key this late in the race, but this is a stage where having multiple riders in front can be key as with an attack will also come teammates blocking the pace behind. We can divide the favourites into three groups.

Climbers - Not impossible but it will be hard for them. They will have to make the difference in the 7-kilometer climb but overall hope for a hard day from start to finish with no real rest. Additionally, they will have to hope the breakaway goes up the road in the climb specifically. A few riders like today's winner Richard Carapaz, David Gaudu and Tobias Johannessen also pack a strong sprint and are ahead of the competition when it comes to this. Others like Carlos Verona, Wout Poels, Ilan van Wilder, Oscar Onley, Enric Mas and Javier Romo can fight for a good result nonetheless.

Puncheurs - Riders who will also hope to make the difference uphill but who have experience on the hilly days and can thrive in them. The likes of Mathieu van der Poel and Romain Grégoire would certainly benefit from a sprint finale out of a short group; the likes of Stephen Williams and Ben Healy are very strong figures to make the difference in short efforts like this.... Michal Kwiatkowski, Toms Skujins, Valentin Madouas, Kévin Vauquelin, Rui Costa and Frank van den Broek are also names to keep under eye.

Rouleurs/Sprinters - Perhaps the biggest candidates for the day? In-form rouleurs or classics specialists like Jasper Stuyven and Magnus Cort Nielsen are absolutely perfect for such a day and have enough underdog status to not be forced to do extra work even in small groups. They both pack a good sprint, are strong climbers in non-steep ascents but have tremendous endurance and power on the flat roads.

A few riders can sprint very well like the previously mentioned green jersey contenders but also Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Michael Matthews, Marijn van den Berg, Arnaud De Lie, Bryan Coquard and Pascal Ackermann but they certainly can't rely on their sprint to be in discussion. They have to race hard over the hills and not be afraid to attack, if they want to win the stage.

A few will also want to attack early and take full advantage of the flat roads such as Jonas Abrahamsen, Ryan Gibbons, Bruno Armirail, Stefan Küng and Victor Campenaerts.

A few others can roll very well, on occasion sprint very well, but will want an early attack and are then able to sustain it throughout the climbs. I note Matej Mohoric, Bob Jungels, Matteo Sobrero, Brent van Moer, Oier Lazkano and Alex Aranburu as mentionworthy.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 18:

*** Ben Healy, Jasper Stuyven
** Tobias Johannessen, Mathieu van der Poel, Stephen Williams, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Bob Jungels
* Tadej Pogacar, Jasper Philipsen, Simon Yates, Laurens de Plus, Richard Carapaz, Oscar Onley, Valentin Madouas, Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Michael Matthews, Ryan Gibbons, Matej Mohoric, Stefan Küng, Victor Campenaerts, Oier Lazkano, Alex Aranburu, Jonas Abrahamsen, Rui Costa

Pick: Ben Healy