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PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 2 - Can Wout van Aert win first bunch sprint and take over race lead?
CyclingSunday, 18 August 2024 at 15:36
Stage 1 of the Vuelta a España provided a dramatic spectacle in the form of a time-trial. Now, stage 2 will give the sprinters a chance, but it won't come without a bit of climbing, heat and strong wind. We preview stage 2 of the Spanish Grand Tour where Wout van Aert will certainly be a headliner.
Stage 2 will start in the outskirts of Lisbon in the city of Cascais and finish in Ourém. A first opportunity for the sprinters but as is traditional in Portugal, there will be plenty of small climbs and likely a lot of heat making it harder for the fast men.
Stage 2: Cascais - Ourém, 195 kilometers
2600 meters of climbing make it well, a regular sprint stage around Portugal to be quite honest. The day has right in it's first kilometers a fourth category climb which is around 5 kilometers at 5%. This will see attacks for the KOM jersey but possibly a few riders dreaming of an opportunity at the red jersey. The whole day is packed with tiny ascents and false-flat roads. In the final kilometers there will be some more climbing.
There's a 2-kilometer ascent at 7% summiting with 24 kilometers to go. Shortly after the riders crest the second fourth category ascent. There will then be some descending into Ourém but the roads are not technical, it will make it hard for a late escapee group. A bunch sprint will in any chance be the most likely scenario. Not a technical one, the final 1.5 kilometers are somewhat uphill - the hardest being at the entrance of the final kilometer. The final meters will have a 3% gradient, definitely not a regular one.
The Weather
Map Vuelta a España 2024 stage 2
There will be heat, but not as much as in the coming days. This stage will be marked by the very strong northwestern wind that was also visible in the time-trial. Luckily for the riders, this will come as a headwind throughout most of the day, making a bunch sprint more likely. However, the final 25 hilly kilometers will mostly have crosswinds. At this point in time echelons are very unlikely in such roads, but it could definitely spark late attacks that can be very dangerous. A sprint would also have crosswind.
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The Favourites
Wout van Aert - It can't be said that van Aert will have much of a leadout, but powerhouse Edoardo Affini should be able to get him in a good position into the sprint no matter what. From the wheel of his rivals he can go for the win; and certainly the Belgian has the speed to do this. He has the red jersey in sight if he gets bonifications and he has told CyclingUpToDate that stages 2, 3 and 5 (the flattest days of the first week) are clear goals.
Kaden Groves - The Alpecin rider won the points classification last season and was the strongest sprinter. On paper, this could well happen again. The Belgian team are fully focused on his ambitions and will control the stage. The Australian can climb well and packs a very sharp sprint that doesn't have much competition in a field like this.
Mathias Vacek - Do not discard the Czech. He has been involved tremendously over this year, and has shown that exactly today. A powerhouse, sprint is not his specialty but he can definitely do it and after a hilly finale with crosswinds, he will give it a go for the bonus seconds in search of the race lead that narrowly escaped him today.
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We've got two strong sprinters and the rest of the field, in my opinion, far below. Pavel BIttner - double stage winner in Burgos - and Bryan Coquard may be able to contest a sprint, the others will hope for flatter (in the case of Arne Marit) or harder days to have better chances at a victory. In the latter I include riders such as Corbyn Strong, Carlos Canal, Vito Braet, Ide Schelling, Roger Adrià and Ide Schelling who should nevertheless give it a shot this Sunday.
Attacks. Will they happen? Can they succeed? If they do a red jersey could be an extra reward, and so I do think attacks will come. Visma will deploy resources to work for a sprint, and Alpecin will too, so it will be hard to escape successfully in the final kilometers but with a few strong attacks that could happen. Riders such as Jhonatan Narváez, Mauro Schmid and Dylan Teuns can certainly attack the steep climb to form a small group that could make it to the finish.
However not only the puncheurs, but the rouleurs have a very good opportunity. The fast finale makes it hard to chase a group with good cohesion and riders. Victor Campenaerts, Stefan Küng, Oier Lazkano, Kasper Asreen and Bruno Armirail are all riders who cannot be given freedom by the sprinter teams. Racing in Portugal, do not discard the experienced Rui Costa as well.
Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 2:
*** Wout van Aert, Kaden Groves
** Pavel Bittner
* Bryan Coquard, Mathias Vacek, Corbyn Strong, Ide Schelling, Jhonatan Narváez
Pick: Wout van Aert
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