PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 12 - Can Ben O'Connor stabilize red jersey emergency?

Stage 12 of the Vuelta a España is a rather hilly day but with a summit finish in Manzaneda. It will be a day where the GC riders will certainly go to the limit once again, but it is not a hard mountain stage in comparison with the ones that are to come later on. We preview an explosive and short stage.

Stage 12 is an interesting day, with 'rompe-piernas' roads all day long - plenty small ascents but none are actually categorized - and then a long but shallow summit finish. The short 137-kilometer long stage doesn't really allow for a relaxed day for anyone, but the stage will only be decided on the final climb to the Estación de Montaña de Manzaneda.

Lots of small climbs but the final one is quite more important. But how will it play out? 15.9 kilometers at 4.7%, featuring a few flat sections... The gradients only go above 10% right in the final kilometer which is it's hardest. For the GC riders there should be a group ride to the finish but the final sprint may see a few seconds created.

If the victory goes to the breakaway it is a good question where the winning attack may come. The final kilometer or possibly the longer section in it's middle with 6/7% gradients. The amount of flat sections and slight gradients makes it very tactical because of the importance of slipstreaming.

The Weather

A norther breeze, which could potentially come as a tailwind on the final climb. Most likely though it won't be meaningful, but the cooler temperatures will be warmly welcomed - whilst rain is possible for the first time in the race.

The Favourites

GC - The main question on the day. Manzaneda is not a difficult climb and ordinarily, in any other stage-race, likely there would be no gaps. With several mountain stages ahead, it may still be the reality that a few GC riders choose not to attack and try to save some powder for the most important days.

However we've got a Ben O'Connor that has once again lost time today... But in Sierra Nevada he looked very strong. The point seems to be clear, he is inconsistent but in good form. Likely the longer climbs and cooler weather favour him, but the point remains the same: Rivals must test him, because you never know if he can survive the rest of the difficult stages and take the win - or a podium. The gradients won't be high, a very different challenge to Granada, so don't expect early attacks. Some differences, small, are possible in the final kilometers. Enric Mas is in great form, whilst BORA and Primoz Roglic have the team and responsibility to attack the race. O'Connor may, on a climb like this, benefit greatly from Felix Gall's presence.

Then you've got Richard Carapaz whom you never know, he can attack if he is on a good day and explode the GC group. Mikel Landa and Carlos Rodríguez likely won't have the legs to make the difference here (may in other more difficult finales) but will certainly be there; whilst Mattias Skjelmose and David Gaudu both looked very good today and may want to attack in order to assault the Top10. Pavel Sivakov, Adam Yates, Florian Lipowitz and Sepp Kuss are also all riders to consider.

Breakaway - It is a short stage, with lots of small climbs. It's not hard to control, but don't expect any team to fully commit to controlling the day. A breakaway win is likely, but although it's a summit finish, it's not as closed it may seem on profile. The rolling profile and non-steep ascent certainly opens it up for some puncheurs, rouleur or classics riders - and not only climbs.

On the climber side we will certainly have riders like Aleksandr Vlasov, Guillaume Martin, Lorenzo Fortunato, Harold Tejada, Lennert van Eetvelt (who fell out of GC contention today), Michael Woods, Rémy Rochas, Jay Vine, Max Poole, William Lecerf Junior, Carlos Verona and Marc Soler are all contenders.

But we may have other riders trying to surprise, specially with attacks before the final climb. Wout van Aert did it perfectly on stage 10 and honestly he may want to do it again here with a plausible chances. Quentin Pacher, Oier Lazkano and Mathias Vacek are also riders to pay close attention to.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 12:

*** Jay Vine, Marc Soler
** Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas, Carlos Verona, Harold Tejada
* Mikel Landa, Carlos Rodríguez, Mattias Skjelmose, Richard Carapaz, Ben O'Connor, Aleksandr Vlasov, Lennert van Eetvelt, Max Poole, Wout van Aert, Quentin Pacher, Oier Lazkano

Pick: Jay Vine