PREVIEW | Tour of Flanders 2025 - Mathieu van der Poel can make history but will he be the king of De Ronde?
Cycling
The Tour of Flanders, renowned as the second monument of the season and the pinnacle of all Flandrien classics, stands as one of the most important and thrilling days in the cycling calendar. This prestigious race, taking place on the 6th April, sees the biggest classics specialists battling it out on the steep cobbled climbs in pursuit of a prestigious victory. We preview the race ahead featuring Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen and more.
268 kilometers on the menu this year. The distance will make for a brutal race, the Tour of Flanders has always been a race for the riders who are capable of performing on a bike at top level for a large number of hours and this year that capacity will be put to the limit. The start in Brugge will then see just a bit over 120 kilometers that are mostly set to be calm, approximately half of the race. However in the second half everything changes, as the Oude Kwaremont will open things up - literally, as it will be sector number 1 this time around.
From 140 to 123 kilometers to go there will be a long succession of bergs and cobbled sectors that will thin down the peloton. Big attacks will no happen here, as the main favourites need to save their bullets wisely, however set-up attacks, split attempts and a lot of fatigue buildup may happen here.
The crucial section of the race starts with the second passage over the Oude Kwaremont. Kwaremont, Koppenberg and Paterberg come in quick succession and this trio of ascents will not only destroy the peloton, it will also provide opportunities to launch potentially decisive attacks. They come with 54.5, 50.5 and 44.5 kilometers to go. Not many riders will survive the peloton afterwards, and with a thinned down group decisive attacks can also come after as the chasing power will not be so meaningful.
Steenbeekdries (39Km to go), Taaienberg (37Km to go) and Oude Kruisberg (28Km to go) follow afterwards and provide further launching pads for dangerous attacks. After a small descent the race will enter it’s final sectors.
For the third and last time, the Oude Kwaremont. A grueling berg with inconsistent gradients, it summits with 16.5Km to go.
And after a short section, the final berg of the race is always one that may see the differences, the Paterberg. Short but sharp, essentially a one-minute all-out effort after around 6:30h of hard racing where slipstreaming is not a thing. A climb most will know like the back of their hand, it will summit with 13 kilometers to go.
As every year, the run-up to Oudenaarde then is quite excruciating. Pan-flat after the small descent from the Paterberg, it is a place where attacks can still happen, but whatever happens depends on what will happen over the ascents.
The Weather
Medium/strong wind from the northeast. This means that we've got serious risks of echelons early in the day! Almost the entire way before the riders reach the cobblestones will have cross or tailwinds, which may see some teams commit to destroying the peloton before action would traditionally kick off - which can well happen taking into consideration the two big favourites' status. However not only that, but the truth is that the final 10 kilometers take place into a block headwind, making solo attacks towards the finale harder to succeed, and larger groups to have a bigger chance of chasing back.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - UAE have such a massive team here, they could realistically try and race this Flanders tactically, but the truth is we know perfectly that it will be work for Pogacar. We've got Florian Vermeersch and Tim Wellens in great form; a Jhonatan Narváez who on his best day can be amongst the best climbers for such terrain; and the remaining three domestiques are literally all riders who finished on the Top5 last year (António Morgado, Nils Politt and Mikkel Bjerg). That's one team that no-one is able to match by a long shot, but within these Bjerg and Politt will likely sacrifice themselves without being in key attacks.
The team can try and take advantage of Alpecin's relative weakness if the race begins to break apart far from the finale, not an easy task but possible. Still, Pogacar will certainly attack the Koppenberg, and moves on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg (not necessarily on the final lap) can also be expected. The Slovenian just attacks, and attacks, and attacks... So how they will use all these riders is a big questions and likely one that will only be decided during the race itself. The Slovenian couldn't drop van der Poel at Milano-Sanremo, but these climbs are much harder, and the race overall is harder. He can repeat a 2023 scenario where he attacked to victory on the Kwaremont against a peak van der Poel. But if he can't go solo on the climbs, the final headwind stretch will make it hard for him to win.
Mathieu van der Poel - The Dutchman last year had a clear and simple tactic: Team controls until Koppenberg, then he attacks and wins solo. He was simply the strongest and there were barely any tactics. This time around he faces Pogacar, whom he must follow at all times if he wants to win. He is in great form, and potentially he can succeed in this mission. He will hope for a non-tactical race however and for the key attacks to come early because if UAE or Visma attack in waves, only having Gianni Vermeersch as a big co-leader may not be enough.
Mads Pedersen - The Dane is carrying such incredible form that he is, under these weather conditions, a very possible race winner. Endurance, form, sprint, ability to ride solo for a long time... Pedersen will have Jasper Stuyven with him, but it will be a sole leadership here. He is an aggressive rider but this year he won't be given freedom to go solo at any point by the big favourites I am certain. The problem for him is he will need to match the big two on the steep climbs, but honestly from what he's shown, he may have the legs to do so.
Visma - The Dutch team dominated Dwars door Vlaanderen until they made a big mistake. Don't be mistaken yourself though, they won't do it again, not only because it's naturally not a good plan but also it's impossible to replicate it in this race. Matteo Jorgenson and Wout van Aert will share leadership, but I recon van Aert will take more risks early on and if it comes down to it, he will put in effort for the American who should be able to climb better I believe.
The team's best bet though is to try and surprise. Hard when the competition is made of riders like van der Poel and Pogacar... But Visma have proven once again that they still can do it. Here the echelons might be key, I believe they will certainly try to break the race before the climbs, because they've got a few riders that once the racing kicks off, won't be too useful. They need to choose their moment right though, as they did in DDV, because even if they're 5-to-1 (and I don't mean this ironically), Pogacar will only need one attack to drop them all for example.
Filippo Ganna - Magnus Sheffield and Ben Turner come in as a great support crew for the Italian and allow INEOS to realistically race tactically but also have a great set of engines to position the Italian if necessary. Ganna himself is not a man well suited to Flanders but his form is so impressive, and his performance at the E3 Saxo Classic so telling, that a podium is realistic here. He lacks the explosivity of the right charachteristics for these ultra-steep and sharp efforts, but he can do better than most, and he's definitely got both the endurance and sprint to make him a threat under any circumstance in the finale.
The list of contenders for a Top10 spreads far and wide, and after a 2024 edition that featured a surprise podium and many unexpected figures in the chasing group - and the threat of echelons affecting the race - will motivate a few riders. Headlining this list would be someone like Neilson Powless who has just come off a brilliant victory at Dwars door Vlaanderen against Visma and without a doubt has the form necessary to fight for another top result; Michael Matthews who sprinted to a podium last year but was relegated; and Lotto who have got Lennert van Eetvelt present here, a rider without much experience in the cobbled classics but with an immense climbing talent, specially on such steep ascents. The Belgian team also have an in-form Alec Segaert and Arjen Livyns as outsiders.
We've got a few riders who pack a strong sprint and can hence be a threat if they survive the climbs in one of the front groups, such as for example Luca Mozzato who shocked to a second place last year, Biniam Girmay, Corbin Strong, Davide Ballerini, Paul Magnier and Iván Cortina García as men to keep an eye on.
Furthermore, we've got plenty quality classics specialists who will want to be present when the action kicks off, that on a great day can all finish inside the Top10: Laurence Pithie, Matej Mohoric, Fred Wright, Rasmus Tiller, Joe Blackmore, Casper Pedersen, Stefan Küng, Valentin Madouas, Dylan Teuns and Matteo Trentin.
Prediction Tour of Flanders 2025:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel
** Mads Pedersen, Matteo Jorgenson, Filippo Ganna
* Tim Wellens, Florian Vermeersch, Jhonatan Narváez, Gianni Vermeersch, Jasper Stuyven, Wout van Aert, Tiesj Benoot, Magnus Sheffield, Michael Matthews, Neilson powless, Lennert van Eetvelt, Valentin Madouas, Stefan Küng, Matteo Trentin
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
How: I think Pogacar's climbing will at the end of the day be the key to the race. Whilst van der Poel looks on top form, longer efforts like the Koppenberg and Oude Kwaremont do allow Pogacar an opportunity to drop everyone and his endurance/solo riding is spotless.
Original: Rúben Silva
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— Flanders Classics (@FlandersClassic) March 27, 2025
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