ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar vs Mathieu van der Poel: Who is the favourite ahead of the Tour of Flanders showdown?
Cycling
The 2025 Tour of Flanders is shaping up to be one of the most highly anticipated editions in recent history. At the heart of the hype is the showdown between two of the sport’s most captivating and dominant figures: defending champion Mathieu van der Poel and 2023 winner Tadej Pogacar.
Each rider enters the race arguably in the form of their life, an unmatched competitive edge, and a history of epic head to head contests. This is by no means a two horse race, and we’re not discounting any of the other competitors, but there’s no denying Pogacar and Van der Poel are a step (or several) ahead.
With the cycling world watching, what can we learn from their past encounters, and especially from the last few editions of De Ronde, before Sunday’s showdown?
1-0 to Van der Poel in 2025
In March, Van der Poel took first blood in 2025 by triumphing at Milano-Sanremo, outgunning the World Champion in one of the greatest monuments you will ever see. Try as he might, Pogacar could not get rid of the Dutchman on the Poggio, as Van der Poel won the first monument of the year for the second time. It marked a strong start to Van der Poel’s spring and gave him a narrow edge over Pogacar in the early-season classics.
More importantly, it may have given Van der Poel a psychological edge, as not only could Pogacar not break him, but Van der Poel has now twice won the race that Pogacar seems to find impossible to win.
But if we look at the full scope of their rivalry, things are a bit more nuanced. Since turning professional in 2019, Pogacar and Van der Poel have lined up together 93 times, according to Pro Cycling Stats. Of those 93 encounters, Pogacar has finished ahead 65 times, while Van der Poel has done so 28 times.
It’s a striking margin, though it’s important to account for the skew: many of these races have been Grand Tours or stage races, which favour Pogacar’s general classification strengths. In those formats, Pogacar’s primary rival is Jonas Vingegaard, but in the Spring, it’s the Dutchman who poses the greatest threat.
Why is the 2019 Amstel Gold Race
The rivalry began on 21 April 2019 at the Amstel Gold Race as the two lined up together for the first time, a day still regarded by many as the most dramatic moment of Van der Poel’s career.
While Pogacar did not finish that race, Van der Poel delivered a once-in-a-generation performance. After appearing out of contention with 10km to go, he dragged back a gap of over 40 seconds with a solo chase, reeling in the leaders and winning the sprint in extraordinary fashion. The Dutchman’s victory that day catapulted him to a new level of cycling superstardom.
Pogacar was not part of the race that day. He’s been part of just about every race ever since.
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Van der Poel and Pogacar have now raced in nine Monuments together. The head-to-head in those races is finely balanced: Pogacar has finished ahead five times; Van der Poel four. Remarkably, both riders have also won seven Monuments each, an astonishing tally considering their young ages and the sheer amount of other great riders they have both had to beat.
Key One-Day Battles:
- 2020: Pogacar finished ahead of Van der Poel at Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
- 2021: Van der Poel claimed a sensational win at Strade Bianche, with Pogacar finishing seventh.
- 2022 Milano-Sanremo: Van der Poel edged Pogacar again, finishing third to Pogacar’s fifth.
- 2022 Dwars door Vlaanderen: Another win for Van der Poel as Pogacar came tenth.
- 2022 Tour of Flanders: Van der Poel beat Pogacar in a nail-biting finale where the Slovenian missed out on the podium in cruel fashion.
- 2023 Milano-Sanremo: Van der Poel reigned again as Pogacar finished fourth.
- 2023 Tour of Flanders: Pogacar responded with a decisive solo victory.
- 2023 World Championships (Glasgow): Van der Poel took the rainbow jersey with Pogacar in third.
- 2024 Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Pogacar won, Van der Poel came third.
- 2024 World Championships (Zurich): Pogacar dropped the entire field with a 100km solo attack to seize the rainbow jersey from Van der Poel.
- 2025 Milano-Sanremo: Van der Poel struck again to win an all time great battle.
The incredible quality and back-and-forth nature of these battles is what has elevated this rivalry to mythical status. No other pair in the peloton can boast this kind of consistent excellence and mutual domination in cycling’s most prestigious one-day events.
Long may it continue.
What the Tour of Flanders can teach us
Let’s turn the focus back to Flanders, arguably the ultimate proving ground for classics riders. The last three editions of the race give us a wealth of insights into what might unfold this weekend.
2022
The 2022 Tour of Flanders ended in heartbreak for Pogacar and glory for Van der Poel. The two had broken clear on the final ascent of the Kwaremont and worked together until the final kilometre. On the last climb (the brutal Paterberg) it looked as though Pogacar had finally cracked Van der Poel. But the Dutchman clawed back to his wheel, and neither rider wanted to risk launching a long sprint.
This hesitation allowed the chasing group to claw their way back. When Van der Poel finally kicked with 250m to go, Pogacar was boxed in behind Madouas and van Baarle and could not respond. Van der Poel surged to victory, while Pogacar, frustrated, had to settle for fourth.
2023
Pogacar returned with a vengeance in 2023. After dropping Mads Pedersen on the Oude Kwaremont, he launched a solo bid for glory and built a 15-second gap by the top of the Paterberg. Over the remaining 13km, he extended the lead to 30 seconds before easing across the line 17 seconds ahead of Van der Poel. It was a demonstration of power, timing, and determination, one of the most dominant rides in modern Flanders history.
2024 (Without Pogacar)
Pogacar skipped the 2024 edition in favour of preparing for the Giro, and Van der Poel made the most of it. Without his Slovenian rival to contend with, the Dutchman obliterated the field in a dominant performance that cemented his status as a generational cobbled classics rider.
This sets the stage for 2025: both riders are healthy, in form, and armed with historical motivation.
The 2025 edition promises to be shaped by the contrasts in their styles. Van der Poel thrives on short, explosive efforts and has the edge in a flat sprint. Pogacar, on the other hand, is capable of dropping anyone with a devastating attack on the climbs, as he did in 2023.
From the lessons of 2022 and 2023, positioning and timing will be crucial. Van der Poel’s strength lies in his strength and savvy in tight finishes. Pogacar, if he wants to avoid being boxed in again, will likely look to drop Van der Poel before the sprint, either on the Kwaremont or the Paterberg. But as 2022 showed, even when distanced momentarily, Van der Poel can dig deep and recover.
Beyond just Flanders, this rivalry is defining an era in men’s cycling. Whilst Van der Poel vs Van Aert, and Pogacar vs Vingegaard are often more talked about, it is probably Van der Poel versus Pogacar during the spring that is the most evenly matched rivalry.
Both riders have proven themselves time and again, not just with brute strength but with tactical nuance and racing IQ too. That both have exactly seven Monument wins is almost poetic, a testament to how inseparable they are in terms of prestige.
Will one of the two win their eight monument title this weekend? Will Pogacar repeat his 2023 solo triumph, or will Van der Poel ride to back-to-back wins and stamp his authority as the king of the cobbles?
Have your say down below.
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- Easy to say, but when you know you were not in the best of form and you don’t know how it’ll be on the day, the only way you can find out what’s possible is by testing what you can do what you can. The fact that he was “only” as good as MP and WVA makes the discussion pretty pointless, all unbiased people are interested in is who is the better when both are in top shape. I for one wouldn’t want to go back to the days of unhealthy gang rivalries such as the DV brothers against Merckx which could devolve into dirty tricks, quite happy everyone now tries to win in his own way.Mistermaumau07-04-2025
- Chris Froome believes he will someday get his fifth TDF title. Keep on dreaming buddy.BM07-04-2025
- Hold on lets rewind a bit… March 8 2025 Strada Bianche Tadej’s crash hmmm check that out… Torn Jersey, bloodied, changed bike… what happened there?drkesterdmd07-04-2025
- Still delusionalslappers6607-04-2025
- I disagree, the only issue yesterday was Tadej was stronger, he softened them on every berg after the first loop then burned them hard up the Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg. As Adam Blyth suggested in commentary there is NOBODY better at these 4 or 5 minute efforts on these hills. Protract that to next weekend those 4 or 5 minute efforts could be the difference. Yesterday however, MVDP, WVA and Mads left everything on those roads, Tadej was stronger that simple.slappers6607-04-2025
- He’s living in his own little world, with Bruneel and Hincapie supporting this nonsense. LA is beyond redemption, will die alone, resentful, a lying, cheating, toxic human being. Feel sorry for his childrenCrashjames07-04-2025
- Not just the crash, it was also bad positioning when the first attack of Pogi came.abstractengineer07-04-2025
- ahhh, I don't know it, yes, I'm used to 7 days of antibiotic therapy. Thank you for the information!
maria2024202407-04-2025 - So in the end he did pretty well tactically too :-)Mistermaumau07-04-2025
- Why Maria, what is your reasoning? He was already ill during E3, thought he’d get over it but it got worse which is probably when he took them. His doc will be amongst the best-informed and his infection perfectly analysed. Read this and stop relying on generalised outdated assumptions about antibiotical treatment, part of the reason they may soon no longer be effective at all. “ In 2008, one of us (L.B.R.) posited that of the different ways the medical community could reduce the amount of antibiotic treatment prescribed, the one that seemed safest and most achievable was to treat infections only for as long as necessary to achieve optimal cure rates (1). It is difficult and potentially dangerous for providers not to prescribe antibiotics at all, but it should be easier to convince them not to prescribe antibiotics for so long. The evidentiary basis of traditional durations of antibiotic therapy is that a week is 7 days (2), which is why tried-and-true antibiotic regimens are 7 to 14 days long. The definition of a week was decreed by Roman Emperor Constantine the Great nearly 2000 years ago (2). This seems an unsatisfactory evidentiary basis for modern medical practice. Fortunately, in recent years, more than 45 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have compared the efficacy of short-course versus traditional, longer courses of antibiotic therapy for the treatment of community-acquired and nosocomial pneumonia, acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis and sinusitis, complicated urinary and intra-abdominal infections, Gram-negative bacteremia, acute bacterial skin infections, osteomyelitis and septic arthritis, and even neutropenic fever (3, 4). All RCTs for these diseases and 2 meta-analyses of these RCTs (5, 6) found no difference in efficacy between shorter and traditional courses of antibiotic therapy. Of note, the short-course regimens that were studied were typically not based on Constantine’s 7-day week. For pneumonia specifically, 8 RCTs have shown that 3- to 5-day courses of antibiotic therapy are at least as effective as 7- to 14-day courses for community-acquired pneumonia”Mistermaumau07-04-2025