ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar vs Mathieu van der Poel: Who is the favourite ahead of the Tour of Flanders showdown?
CyclingThursday, 03 April 2025 at 10:00
The 2025 Tour of Flanders is shaping up to be one of the
most highly anticipated editions in recent history. At the heart of the hype is
the showdown between two of the sport’s most captivating and dominant figures:
defending champion Mathieu van der Poel and 2023 winner Tadej Pogacar.
Each rider enters the race arguably in the form of their
life, an unmatched competitive edge, and a history of epic head to head
contests. This is by no means a two horse race, and we’re not discounting any
of the other competitors, but there’s no denying Pogacar and Van der Poel are a
step (or several) ahead.
With the cycling world watching, what can we learn from
their past encounters, and especially from the last few editions of De Ronde, before
Sunday’s showdown?
1-0 to Van der Poel in 2025
In March, Van der Poel took first blood in 2025 by
triumphing at Milano-Sanremo, outgunning the World Champion in one of the
greatest monuments you will ever see. Try as he might, Pogacar could not get
rid of the Dutchman on the Poggio, as Van der Poel won the first monument of
the year for the second time. It marked a strong start to Van der Poel’s spring
and gave him a narrow edge over Pogacar in the early-season classics.
More importantly, it may have given Van der Poel a
psychological edge, as not only could Pogacar not break him, but Van der Poel
has now twice won the race that Pogacar seems to find impossible to win.
Van der Poel got the better of Pogacar at Milano-Sanremo
But if we look at the full scope of their rivalry, things
are a bit more nuanced. Since turning professional in 2019, Pogacar and Van der
Poel have lined up together 93 times, according to Pro Cycling Stats. Of those
93 encounters, Pogacar has finished ahead 65 times, while Van der Poel has done
so 28 times.
It’s a striking margin, though it’s important to account for
the skew: many of these races have been Grand Tours or stage races, which
favour Pogacar’s general classification strengths. In those formats, Pogacar’s
primary rival is Jonas Vingegaard, but in the Spring, it’s the Dutchman who
poses the greatest threat.
Why is the 2019 Amstel Gold Race
The rivalry began on 21 April 2019 at the Amstel Gold Race
as the two lined up together for the first time, a day still regarded by many
as the most dramatic moment of Van der Poel’s career.
While Pogacar did not finish that race, Van der Poel
delivered a once-in-a-generation performance. After appearing out of contention
with 10km to go, he dragged back a gap of over 40 seconds with a solo chase,
reeling in the leaders and winning the sprint in extraordinary fashion. The
Dutchman’s victory that day catapulted him to a new level of cycling
superstardom.
Pogacar was not part of the race that day. He’s been part of
just about every race ever since.
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Van der Poel and Pogacar have now raced in nine Monuments
together. The head-to-head in those races is finely balanced: Pogacar has
finished ahead five times; Van der Poel four. Remarkably, both riders have also
won seven Monuments each, an astonishing tally considering their young ages and
the sheer amount of other great riders they have both had to beat.
Key One-Day Battles:
- 2020: Pogacar finished ahead of Van der Poel at Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
- 2021: Van der Poel claimed a sensational win at Strade Bianche, with Pogacar finishing seventh.
- 2022 Milano-Sanremo: Van der Poel edged Pogacar again, finishing third to Pogacar’s fifth.
- 2022 Dwars door Vlaanderen: Another win for Van der Poel as Pogacar came tenth.
- 2022 Tour of Flanders: Van der Poel beat Pogacar in a nail-biting finale where the Slovenian missed out on the podium in cruel fashion.
- 2023 Milano-Sanremo: Van der Poel reigned again as Pogacar finished fourth.
- 2023 Tour of Flanders: Pogacar responded with a decisive solo victory.
- 2023 World Championships (Glasgow): Van der Poel took the rainbow jersey with Pogacar in third.
- 2024 Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Pogacar won, Van der Poel came third.
- 2024 World Championships (Zurich): Pogacar dropped the entire field with a 100km solo attack to seize the rainbow jersey from Van der Poel.
- 2025 Milano-Sanremo: Van der Poel struck again to win an all time great battle.
The incredible quality and back-and-forth nature of these
battles is what has elevated this rivalry to mythical status. No other pair in
the peloton can boast this kind of consistent excellence and mutual domination
in cycling’s most prestigious one-day events.
Long may it continue.
What the Tour of Flanders can teach us
Let’s turn the focus back to Flanders, arguably the ultimate
proving ground for classics riders. The last three editions of the race give us
a wealth of insights into what might unfold this weekend.
2022
The 2022 Tour of Flanders ended in heartbreak for Pogacar
and glory for Van der Poel. The two had broken clear on the final ascent of the
Kwaremont and worked together until the final kilometre. On the last climb (the
brutal Paterberg) it looked as though Pogacar had finally cracked Van der Poel.
But the Dutchman clawed back to his wheel, and neither rider wanted to risk
launching a long sprint.
This hesitation allowed the chasing group to claw their way
back. When Van der Poel finally kicked with 250m to go, Pogacar was boxed in
behind Madouas and van Baarle and could not respond. Van der Poel surged to
victory, while Pogacar, frustrated, had to settle for fourth.
2023
Pogacar returned with a vengeance in 2023. After dropping
Mads Pedersen on the Oude Kwaremont, he launched a solo bid for glory and built
a 15-second gap by the top of the Paterberg. Over the remaining 13km, he
extended the lead to 30 seconds before easing across the line 17 seconds ahead
of Van der Poel. It was a demonstration of power, timing, and determination, one
of the most dominant rides in modern Flanders history.
2024 (Without Pogacar)
Pogacar skipped the 2024 edition in favour of preparing for
the Giro, and Van der Poel made the most of it. Without his Slovenian rival to
contend with, the Dutchman obliterated the field in a dominant performance that
cemented his status as a generational cobbled classics rider.
This sets the stage for 2025: both riders are healthy, in
form, and armed with historical motivation.
The 2025 edition promises to be shaped by the contrasts in
their styles. Van der Poel thrives on short, explosive efforts and has the edge
in a flat sprint. Pogacar, on the other hand, is capable of dropping anyone
with a devastating attack on the climbs, as he did in 2023.
From the lessons of 2022 and 2023, positioning and timing
will be crucial. Van der Poel’s strength lies in his strength and savvy in
tight finishes. Pogacar, if he wants to avoid being boxed in again, will likely
look to drop Van der Poel before the sprint, either on the Kwaremont or the
Paterberg. But as 2022 showed, even when distanced momentarily, Van der Poel
can dig deep and recover.
Beyond just Flanders, this rivalry is defining an era in
men’s cycling. Whilst Van der Poel vs Van Aert, and Pogacar vs Vingegaard are
often more talked about, it is probably Van der Poel versus Pogacar during the
spring that is the most evenly matched rivalry.
Both riders have proven themselves time and again, not just
with brute strength but with tactical nuance and racing IQ too. That both have
exactly seven Monument wins is almost poetic, a testament to how inseparable
they are in terms of prestige.
Will one of the two win their eight monument title this
weekend? Will Pogacar repeat his 2023 solo triumph, or will Van der Poel ride
to back-to-back wins and stamp his authority as the king of the cobbles?
Have your say down below.
Poll
Who will win the Tour of Flanders 2025?
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- The ranking points between Jakob Fuglsang and Jonas Vingegaard is huge, BTW.. about 6700 ranking points. Mads trails Jonas by 14 points.FredMan14-05-2025
- Greatest ever? Based on CyclingRanking.com, Rolf Sorensen is #1, Jakob Fuglsang is #2, Jonas Vingegaard is #3, and Mads Pedersen is a very close #4. If you'd rather rely on personal opinion, or favorites, or what not, it's anybody's guess.FredMan14-05-2025
- I love it when the "little guy" wins!acem8214-05-2025
- Yeah, TdF is completely overrated, only amateurs and has-beens participate. And little ole skimpy Jonas has only won it as often as Switzerland or The Netherlands or Germany and Australia combined. Prestigewise there is NO comparison until he wins either the WC again or something big coz sorry G-W is basically a 2nd rate race at their level and he’s not won much else except a decent collection of stages, which Jonas and plenty of sprinters win too. Until now, MP is about pulling level with Asgreen who also won stages and classics, was a WC and HE got himself a monument and almost as many almosts as Mads but in a career only half as long.Mistermaumau13-05-2025
- Jonas is a great rider but only rides stage races so i would have to say he & Mads are about equal now. Stage racing in general is overvalued i think... (vs the power required to win one day races)Xrider5113-05-2025
- Jonas only does stage raXrider5113-05-2025
- First goats and now great danes, all we need now is a showdown at the tour of turkey, that could maybe slide into grease. Sorry, always happens when I get tired.Mistermaumau13-05-2025
- I think this kind of thing will become quite common in future in light of the way pros have had to up their game and risk-taking. Means more precarity but also a bigger pool.Mistermaumau13-05-2025
- Its difficult to compare the two, since both are fundamentally different as cyclists. Jonas is essentially a stage racer, whereas Mads excels in classics as well as in sprint stages at GTs. At this point of time, Jonas with his two Tour wins, beating Pogacar no less, has the better credentials. If Mads wins a few monuments and some Points Jerseys, the comparison may be closer.Cooldude13-05-2025
- I thought he did quite well in that team if not for the illnesses and strings of bad luck.
KerisVroom13-05-2025