PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2023 Stage 5 - Jay Vine faces Yates and Bilbao on explosive queen stage

The final of racing at the Tour Down Under will be from Unley to Mount Lofty, with an uphill start, very short distances and explosive circuit climbs. Jay Vine will be trying to defend his lead, Pello Bilbao and Simon Yates find themselves only 15 seconds behind ahead of a dfficult day.

It will be a day where chaos can rule and aggressive racing can benefit, to possibly turn the GC on it's head. Besides the uphill start, the riders will ride a four-lap circuit that concludes at the top of Mount Lofty, a 8.1-kilometer long ascent that averages 3%.

There are only 112.5 kilometers on the menu, it's a very short day on the bike and the GC gaps won't be too big, dozens of riders will be within striking distance and this is a very dangerous day, and a hard one to control if that is necessary. It is essentially a five-lap stage that each times reaches the summit of Mount Lofty.

The roads inbetween climbs always have a slight up or downhill tilt making it hard to organize and ride a consistent pace. The climb itself is 8.4 kilometers at 3% but is very inconsistent. Gradients above 10% will be present in the final 2.5 kilometers which average around 6%. Saving the legs can be worth it here as there is ground to launch an offensive, and the race will end atop the mountain in a beautiful way.

The Weather

Some wind from the southeast, with strong gusts. The wind being this strong will make it an even more tricky and strategical day. On one hand, the uphill initial drag faces mostly some headwind, however most of the final climb, which is irregular in itself, will see tail and crosswinds.

The Favourites

This is a very dangerous day, the very short distances and uphill start will mean that a very strong group is likely to go up the road soon and it will be complicated to control. The day will be windy with a very rolling circuit which makes it very hard aswell to put on an effective chase. In a Grand Tour, this would certainly be a breakaway day, but here the circumstances are different.

Nevertheless, many have lost time and have the legs to chase a win on this terrain. Some more riders can be dangerous in the eventuality of a strong group going up the road early on. In such a day and circumstances, I would not be surprised at all to see GC riders going up the road, including some in the Top10. Within those that will have freedom though, and are real breakaway threats, I'd include Luke Plapp, Max Schachmann, Victor Lafay, Chris Hamilton, Alberto Bettiol, Rohan Dennis, Michael Storer, Robert Stannard and Mikkel Honoré.

A wide variety of riders are likely to have a go though. The race lead is in UAE's hands which have a very strong team here, so that will help keep things together. In the eventuality of all riders being brought back and it being a day for the GC riders, both Simon Yates and Pello Bilbao have the obligation to attack, but it will be very hard for someone to dislodge Jay Vine from the ochre jersey - at the moment he is the man to beat.

A small group sprint isn't a wild theory in here aswell, Lofty isn't that hard, and if the breakaway is controlled it could see some of the fast men fight for the victory. By fast men, you would rather call them puncheurs, but the likes of Michael Matthews, Ethan Hayter and Corbin Strong are real contenders for the win here.

Inside the GC fight, it'd be hard to see them get the freedom to join an early attack, however in such an open finale some more outsiders will have a chance to surprise. Ben O'Connor, Jai Hindley, Mauro Schmid, Magnus Sheffield and Rudy Molard are riders to take into account here.

Prediction Time

*** Plapp, Stannard, Honoré
** Vine, Bilbao, S.Yates, Lafay
* C.Hamilton, Bettiol, Dennis, Storer, Hindley, Schmid, Matthews, Strong, Molard

Pick: Luke Plapp