PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2023 Stage 5 - Jay Vine faces Yates and Bilbao on explosive queen stage
Cycling
The final of racing at the Tour Down Under will be from Unley to Mount Lofty, with an uphill start, very short distances and explosive circuit climbs. Jay Vine will be trying to defend his lead, Pello Bilbao and Simon Yates find themselves only 15 seconds behind ahead of a dfficult day.
It will be a day where chaos can rule and aggressive racing can benefit, to possibly turn the GC on it's head. Besides the uphill start, the riders will ride a four-lap circuit that concludes at the top of Mount Lofty, a 8.1-kilometer long ascent that averages 3%.
Stage 5: Unley - Mount Lofty, 112.5 kilometers
Mount Lofty: 8.4Km; 3%
There are only 112.5 kilometers on the menu, it's a very short day on the bike and the GC gaps won't be too big, dozens of riders will be within striking distance and this is a very dangerous day, and a hard one to control if that is necessary. It is essentially a five-lap stage that each times reaches the summit of Mount Lofty.
The roads inbetween climbs always have a slight up or downhill tilt making it hard to organize and ride a consistent pace. The climb itself is 8.4 kilometers at 3% but is very inconsistent. Gradients above 10% will be present in the final 2.5 kilometers which average around 6%. Saving the legs can be worth it here as there is ground to launch an offensive, and the race will end atop the mountain in a beautiful way.
Tour Down Under stage 5 map
The Weather
Tour Down Under stage 5 finale
Some wind from the southeast, with strong gusts. The wind being this strong will make it an even more tricky and strategical day. On one hand, the uphill initial drag faces mostly some headwind, however most of the final climb, which is irregular in itself, will see tail and crosswinds.
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The Favourites
This is a very dangerous day, the very short distances and uphill start will mean that a very strong group is likely to go up the road soon and it will be complicated to control. The day will be windy with a very rolling circuit which makes it very hard aswell to put on an effective chase. In a Grand Tour, this would certainly be a breakaway day, but here the circumstances are different.
Nevertheless, many have lost time and have the legs to chase a win on this terrain. Some more riders can be dangerous in the eventuality of a strong group going up the road early on. In such a day and circumstances, I would not be surprised at all to see GC riders going up the road, including some in the Top10. Within those that will have freedom though, and are real breakaway threats, I'd include Luke Plapp, Max Schachmann, Victor Lafay, Chris Hamilton, Alberto Bettiol, Rohan Dennis, Michael Storer, Robert Stannard and Mikkel Honoré.
A wide variety of riders are likely to have a go though. The race lead is in UAE's hands which have a very strong team here, so that will help keep things together. In the eventuality of all riders being brought back and it being a day for the GC riders, both Simon Yates and Pello Bilbao have the obligation to attack, but it will be very hard for someone to dislodge Jay Vine from the ochre jersey - at the moment he is the man to beat.
A small group sprint isn't a wild theory in here aswell, Lofty isn't that hard, and if the breakaway is controlled it could see some of the fast men fight for the victory. By fast men, you would rather call them puncheurs, but the likes of Michael Matthews, Ethan Hayter and Corbin Strong are real contenders for the win here.
Inside the GC fight, it'd be hard to see them get the freedom to join an early attack, however in such an open finale some more outsiders will have a chance to surprise. Ben O'Connor, Jai Hindley, Mauro Schmid, Magnus Sheffield and Rudy Molard are riders to take into account here.
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Prediction Time
*** Plapp, Stannard, Honoré
** Vine, Bilbao, S.Yates, Lafay
* C.Hamilton, Bettiol, Dennis, Storer, Hindley, Schmid, Matthews, Strong, Molard
** Vine, Bilbao, S.Yates, Lafay
* C.Hamilton, Bettiol, Dennis, Storer, Hindley, Schmid, Matthews, Strong, Molard
Pick: Luke Plapp
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
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- lol yeahmij08-11-2026
- I know, their headlines can be so misleading. Pidcock had a great season with 5 wins. and some solid 2nds. no reason to take away from that with a fake headline.mij08-11-2026
- You can clearly see the the posture change from slightly sitting to again out of the saddle while changing of gears in the video of the sprintabstractengineer08-11-2026
- He has already beaten Pogi twice in the TDF. the achievement is over. He cannot beat Pogi now and he only has a few years left at the top. Win Giro and compete in the TDF, maximise palmares.abstractengineer08-11-2026
- Just looked again at the photo. Yeah I stand by that. If MS had fallen over in Brands direction I don’t even think she would have hit her. You must be a UCI race commissioner. I’ll be sure to check my sock height should I ever see you on a ride. Looks like everyone else on here sees what I see.mij08-11-2026
- I said looking at the photo it doesn’t appear she deviated. Chill out, not stating my word is the final judgement. Just commenting that based on the photo I don’t see it. And BTW the Dutch coach even said she didn’t impede her.mij08-11-2026
- Blah Blah Blah !frieders308-11-2026
- MS said she was changing gears so that caused her slight deviation. Nothing was intentional.frieders308-11-2026
- How can you use a photo post incident to judge the incident itself (which is not hard to find if you’re prepared to invest the same amount of time in searching as writing that comment? It’s harsh but technically right even though this or worse is not always sanctioned in every race. The two things that went against MS (who unfortunately for her would still have won without making her mistake) are that it was not a bunch sprint where there could have been an overlooked incident or mitigating circumstances explaining a deviation. Everything was focused on just those 2, Schreiber was riding beautifully balanced which made her sudden deviation look unnatural stroke as if it could have been in some part intentional whilst she was slowly drifting ever closer towards the barrier to a point that would have reached obstruction level. In her defence, it might have been the realisation she was heading towards that that made her react suddenly and caused the deviation involuntarily. In any case, congratulations to her for the ride of her life, in people’s minds she will be credited for it.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Good boy Obviously doesn’t need that much help dealing with pressure, as some have suggested. Wiser (and humbler) than many far further along their careers. About offering him the moon, recently someone came up with an explanation of the downfall of a football great (either referring to Maradona or Portuguese Ronaldo) saying it was kind of normal after coming back from the moon, except that others, including some who actually did go to the moon like Armstrong (Neil in case anyone is too switched off to realise) didn’t go through any of the same motions after coming back. A lot of how you deal with situations has less to do with the situation than with your character.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
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