Stage 1 of the Tour Down Under into Tanunda will be one for the sprinters surely however the 2023 edition has seen quite some changes in it's route and this day is a great example of it. Alberto Bettiol won the opening prologue but it's unlikely that his lead will be at risk here.
It isn't a stage that will be too difficult, and is actually rather simple, but interesting. It's a short 150-kilometer day that starts and ends in the city of Tanunda and sees a four-lap circuit which will decide the outcome of the stage. This features a climb, however it shouldn't prevent the fast men from fighting for the win.
The main climb of the circuit is Menglers Hill. 4.5 kilometers at 3.7% gradient, it isn't a hard ascent however at the same time it can't be shrugged off. If some teams are willing to push the pace the peloton can certainly string out, and with some riders on their January form, it wouldn't be a surprise to see quite a few lose contact.
It won't break the peloton however, it summits with 13.5 kilometers to go. Some sprinters may be out of breath by the top, but there is the chance to recover. There will be a fast descent and a very straightforward run-up to the finish, it won't be a technical finish.
The Weather
The rain showers should stop but it doesn't mean the weather will be smooth. The will be some meaningful wind from the south which will make for a nervous day. Echelons are unlikely but possibly in the plain section. As for the final sprint, which should decide the day, there will be a cross-tailwind.
The Favourites
The stage has some tricky points but if I am to be honest I doubt the climbing and descending, and even the wind will play a major part in it's outcome. It should be a bunch sprint, albeit perhaps with a bit more fatigue then a regular stage as I do predict a team at least will try and force the pace the last time up Menglers Hill.
The gradients are never truly tight though, so I doubt many riders will be dropped. In the sprinters field you have a clear distinction between those who come in with a strong leadout and those who clearly will have to fight for positioning ahead of the sprint. In a sprint that may see some tailwind, this is beneficial to those who will start from the front.
Phil Bauhaus has Arndt and Sutterlin. Gerben Thijssen has Page, van Poppel, van der Hoorn and a team full of rouleurs. Jordi Meeus has Haller and Archbold. These three riders are perhaps not the absolute fastest but I foresee the win should come from one of them because of the weather. However leadouts are not everything and the pure speed is very much present in the likes of Caleb Ewan and Kaden Groves who will be rated just as high for the contention for the win.
If the climbing were to do some effect it could benefit other riders, who may try to push the pace in the climbing sections. Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard, Ethan Hayter and Hugo Hofstetter are all experienced riders in the short uphill efforts and it is very possible to imagine a bit of an alliance to thin down the contenders for the sprint. The likes of Paul Penhoet, Martin Laas and Marius Mayrhofer will be outsiders for a sprint aswell.
Prediction Time
*** Groves, Meeus
** Bauhaus, Ewan, Thijssen
* Matthews, Hayter, Coquard, Penhoet, Hofstetter
Pick: Gerben Thijssen
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