PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 - Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard ready for historic battle

Cycling
Saturday, 05 July 2025 at 09:43
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We preview the 2025 Tour de France, the fifth consecutive edition of the race in which we should see a battle between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard for the yellow jersey - in what has become one of modern cycling's most iconic rivalries. The likes of Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic will aim for the podium; the likes of Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert will aim for stage wins; and the best sprinters in the world including Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier will fight for the yellow jersey on the first day.
The 21 stages were revealed on the 29th of October in Paris (without all profiles being revealed) and it is a route that begins in the Hauts-de-France region, the northwestern tip of the country, with a few stages for the sprinters and classics riders. All the way into stage 11 the fast and powerful men will have their opportunities, before the race finally enters the mountains.
Stages 12, 13 and 14 will take place in the Pyrenees including a summit finish in Hautacam, a mountain time-trial in Peyragudes and another mountaintop finish in Superbagnères. The final week will have the return of the famous Mont Ventoux on stage 16 and two stages in the Alps with finales at the Col de la Loze and La Plagne - before a return to Paris.

Stage 1: Lille - Lille

The first stage of the race will be flat and a perfect opportunity for the sprinters to obtain the yellow jersey. In the middle of the route, the riders will still find the cobblestones of Mont Cassel.

Stage 2: Lauwin-Planque - Boulogne-sur-Mer

The second stage of the race should have a sprint finale in Boulogne-sur-Mer, although a few sprinters will definitely be dropped by the steep climbs that antecede it. The final ramp to the line is 1.2 kilometers long at 3.8%:

Stage 3: Valenciennes - Dunkerque

The third day of racing sees the pure sprinters come back to the spotlight to fight for another stage win in Dunkerque.

Stage 4: Amiens - Rouen

The second hilltop finish of the race will take place in Rouen and it's a thrilling explosive finale. The final 21 kilometers have four ascents, the final big one with a mere 5 kilometers to go which is 900 meters long at over 10%.

Stage 5 (ITT): Caen - Caen

The race's sole flat time-trial and it comes in very early on, in what should be the first serious GC battle of the race. In Caen, the GC riders will have 33 kilometers to make the difference.

Stage 6: Bayeux - Vire

The third punchy finish of the first week, in Normandie. 1.2 kilometers at 7.2% with 4 kilometers to go and then the final 700 meters ramp up at 10% towards the finish line, which may see a mix of climbers, classics riders and sprinters fight for the win.

Stage 7: Saint-Malo - Mur-de-Bretagne

The fourth explosive hilltop finish of the week, in the very famous Mur-de-Bretagne. A day where riders will save it all for the final 2 kilometers which average 6.9%. The first kilometers averages 10% in a straight road, and then a slight rise to the line that will be painful for everyone involved.

Stage 8: Saint-Méen Le Grand - Laval

Another stage for the pure sprinters, a transition day through the French territory ending in the city of Laval.

Stage 9: Chinon - Chateauroux

In Châtearoux, we will have another stage for the pure sprinters, with no obstacles to prevent it from happening and with the green jersey contenders taking the spotlight.

Stage 10: Ennezat - Mont Dore-Puy de Sancy

On Bastille day we have a stage featuring 4400 meters of climbing with seven categorized climbing and a constant roller-coaster. A day for the classics riders but likely a GC fight as well, and a lot can happen here and there are plenty traps. Even if the GC riders resist the chaotic terrain, the final 3.3 kilometers average 8% and should see the contenders for overall victory stretch their legs.

Stage 11: Toulouse - Toulouse

The second week starts off with a day that begins and finishes in Toulouse. A day for a potential breakaway, late attacks or reduced bunch sprint. The finale has plenty small climbs which could blow up the race.

Stage 12: Auch - Hautacam

The first high mountain stage of the race. After a flat start the riders enter the Pyrenees and the final ascent to Hautacam can cause serious damage. Its 13.6 kilometers at 7.8% and has in the past created massive differences at the Tour. The same is expected this time around.

Stage 13 (ITT): Loudenvielle - Peyragudes

The second day in the mountains is an unusual sight at the Tour: A mountain time-trial! The 8-kilometer ascent to Peyragudes will be tackled after a few flat kilometers in Loudenvielle... The climb averages almost 8% and features the brutal ramp to the line at the altiport that has become famous over the past few years.

Stage 14: Pau - Luchon-Superbagneres

Before the riders leave the Pyrenees they tackle a day with 5000 meters of climbing. Four long and constant climbs, the final of which is is Superbagneres. 12.4 kilometers long at over 7%, a very similar day to Hautacam and those that are to come in the final week.

Stage 15: Muret - Carcassonne

A day that would on paper be for the sprinters but the Tour organizers have made it as hard as they could. A breakaway can very well succeed on this final day of the second week, as the route into Carcassonne features two difficult climbs in it's middle and a relatively downhill finish.

Stage 16: Montpellier - Mont Ventoux

The first day of the final week has a mostly flat profile and then a brutal finish at Mont Ventoux. The Geant de Provence averages almost 9% over almost 16 kilometers, but this is already after a few false-flat kilometers. A mountain for the pure climbers, where the weather conditions often also make a key difference, this could be a tremendous bomb dropped on the GC fight.

Stage 17: Bolléne - Valence

Another day for the sprinters, but into Valence this time around there should be very little to stop it. Perhaps the final sprint stage of the race.

Stage 18: Vif - Courchevel (Col de la Loze)

5500 meters of climbing on stage 18 of the race, the hardest day of the Tour with a lot of climbing meters and altitude. The Col du Glandon opens it up, the Col de la Madeleine settles the peloton even further, but the hardest climb of the day is the Col de la Loze. Actually, it is not the side that has been climbed over the past editions, it's a different ascent into Courchevel which is over 26 kilometers long and will be a brutal finale.

Stage 19: Albertville - La Plagne

The final high mountains day into La Plagne will feature five categorized climbs, but it will all come down to the final one. 19 kilometers at over 7% will make for another gruesome GC challenge before the riders leave the mountains.

Stage 20: Nantua - Pontarlier

Stage 20 will be a hilly day and into Pontarler we should have a breakaway succeed. This one could include many classics riders, sprinters and even climbers or GC figures trying to make a final impact in the overall classification.

Stage 21: Mantes-la-Ville - Champs-Elysées

The final stage of the race returns to Paris but this year with a novelty. The Tour organizers have decided to make it a hard finale, one where a sprint could decide the outcome; but with the cobbled climb to Montmartre being ridden three times in an explosive final circuit (as was the case with the Olympic Games) then we could have the classics riders and GC men fighting for victory.

The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - Visma truly have an incredible team, and I think the strongest in the race. Every piece fits, and Vingegaard comes in to the race with great form. They have their tactics, they have the men to race the way the Dane wants, it's a matter of deploying them and hope that Pogacar has a bad day or two as has happened in the past. Vingegaard, in my opinion, will reach his very best level, but unlike 2022 and 2023 that may not be enough to win the Tour anymore.
Take in Matteo Jorgenson, Simon Yates and Sepp Kuss in the mountains to prepare attacks; Edoardo Affini and Victor Campenaerts to always keep him safe on the flat and hilly days; and the wildcard that is Wout van Aert who can be used in many different ways and Visma have a brilliant lineup. I believe though that Vingegaard's victory doesn't depend on him and Visma's racing however, but more so on whether Pogacar can stay upright and consistent for the 21 days.
Tadej Pogacar - No-one will contest me when I say he is the man to beat. There's little explaining required, 2024 Pogacar was literally unbeatable at the Tour and this year he's at the same level. Besides the climbing, explosivity, time-trialing, sprinting, positioning, etc... UAE have a very strong support crew for him, and even when isolated he is just so strong that he can nullify tactic attacks from Visma (we've seen this at the Dauphiné). It doesn't mean he will be unbeatable, but if he remains healthy and crash-free it is his race to lose. 
A rider who can handle the pressure very well, and realistically he only has to worry about Vingegaard which makes life much easier than what past Tour winners had to worry at their time. He only has one suitable rival, but it is one who's beaten him twice at the Tour. Pogacar's battle is against himself I would say - under regular conditions no-one can take a fourth Tour de France win from his hands. João Almeida, the team's second option, is himself a proper podium contender.
Primoz Roglic - I put his name as the headliner but that's not because I think he's BORA's best card. I do realistically believe Florian Lipowitz is BORA's best chance to finish this race in the podium, taking into consideration his evolution over the past year and a half and just how well he is currently climbing. 7th last year at the Vuelta, but the German has evolved since and I think he's on target to finish high up in the standings. But BORA don't have to choose, they just have to protect both him and Roglic, they will never actually have to put others under pressure in the mountains because the overall win isn't a realistic goal. With Roglic I have mixed feelings, as I do think he can reach great form quite easily, but all the mountain stages are long and constant efforts without too steep climbs and he will be around the Top5 level here, whilst not being the most consistent of climbers (with crashes always being a concern).
Remco Evenepoel - Remco Evenepoel is favourite number 3 for this race but he can't aim for more than a podium because Quick-Step's level is simply a whole level below the two rival teams. If the Belgian ever finds himself in a position where he can actually match Pogacar and Vingegaard, Visma and UAE will simply use their depth and tactics to take him out. But behind them, like in 2024, he can do the exact same kind of race and realistically finish high up there again. I think preparation wise he's nailed it again, and overcame this winters' injuries. He may take the yellow jersey briefly in the first week with the time-trial, in the mountains I expect him to be consistent and strong.
The truth is that the men from UAE, Visma and BORA - including those not announced as leaders - will fill out a lot of positions in the Top10. As much as I would like to say that a few riders outside of the four teams above have a good shot at the podium, it just is not the case. It doesn't mean it's impossible, but this will be an UAE vs Visma Tour and everyone else will likely only ride the wheels and then have a W/Kg over the many incredibly similar mountain stages. In the lower Top10 we may have some interesting battles, even if they will not be particularly having the spotlight on TV.
INEOS Grenadiers come in with an interesting team being led by Carlos Rodríguez, but the team - without responsibility to work - does not have to burn men like Geraint Thomas or Laurens de Plus who in their own right, at their best level, can finish this race in the Top10. In 2023 Rodríguez seemed to not be far off the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard in some days but ever since he didn't seem to match the evolution of the climbers. Perhaps with another year in the bag, he will now be able to do so.
We have Felix Gall, who will not enjoy the time-trial and tricky days so he may enter the mountains already with a deficit, but after his Tour de Suisse we can assume he's back to his best level and will enjoy the pure climber-oriented stages of the second half of the race. The last winner in Courchevel (Col de la Loze anyone?) can certainly move up the standings as the race goes on. Enric Mas could be similar, although like last year he may change goals and pursuit stage wins.
Mattias Skjelmose was forced to miss both Dauphiné and Suisse due to illness but his victory at the Andorra MoraBanc Classic suggests his form is good, and the Dane will be aiming for the overall classification as well - having a strong team backing him up, good consistency, explosivity and time-trialing. Santiago Buitrago, Ben O'Connor, Guillaume Martin and Oscar Onley are also riders who have the goal of finishing high up there, but will need a perfect race to complete it in the Top10 - whilst chasing wins could realistically become a goal halfway through it.

Sprinters

In the sprints we will truly have a star-studded field in every sense of the way, with almost every single big sprinter present at the start. Not only are there plenty opportunities for the fast men, but they also come early on and include stage 1 which means a yellow jersey is also going to be handed out. The three headliners are Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen... But last year no-one would've expected Biniam Girmay to win three stages and win the green jersey, so there is on paper nothing to stop him from doing the same this year.
Jordi Meeus, Marijn van den Berg, Phil Bauhaus, Soren Waerenskjold, Pascal Ackermann, Jake Stewart, Dylan Groenewegen, Arnaud De Lie, Bryan Coquard, Fernando Gaviria and Alberto Dainese will also have their opportunities to chase results. You might not even be able to exclude men like Kaden Groves and Wout van Aert who on paper don't come to sprint for their own ambitions but in some days could very well do it.
In that sense, this is also the Tour de France, and even winning a stage from the breakaway requires it to be a top rider. The level at the Grand Boucle is simply so high, it makes it a one-of-a-kind race throughout the year. Just to have under consideration we have climbers such as Lenny Martínez, Tobias Johannessen, Lennert van Eetvelt and Kévin Vauquelin who are very unlikely to fight for the overall classification but instead focus on stage hunting or perhaps the KOM jersey.
We have a wide variety of classics riders such as Mathieu van der Poel, Neilson Powless, Ben Healy, Matej Mohoric, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Thibau Nys, Romain Grégoire, Julian Alaphilippe, Marc Hirschi and Filippo Ganna who will also be in contention for stage wins and trying to grab their opportunities. The latter will also be a prime favourite to win the race's flat time-trial in Caen.
Prediction Tour de France 2025 overall classification:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Jonas Vingegaard
* Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz, Primoz Roglic, João Almeida, Simon Yates, Matteo Jorgenson, Felix Gall, Santiago Buitrago, Mattias Skjelmose, Carlos Rodríguez, Enric Mas
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
Original: Rúben Silva
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8 Comments
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maria20242024 01 July 2025 at 15:25+ 1290

For me, one not brilliant race (Giro) is not enough to doubt about cyclist's talent. Roglic at TT is excellent (Giro) and climbing is more consistent than the young Remco. His age is not a problem to compete 3 hard weeks (Vuelta), his problem, as usual, are crashes. Let's see. I can't wait!

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