As York notes though, the Pogacar of 2025 is much improved from the version that was double teamed so successfully a few years ago. "This season the World Champion has been pretty faultless," she explains. "His climbing abilities have taken another step forward, so much so that it makes me think they’ve looked at what they are up against and prioritised that part of his game. The recent Dauphine time trial result, where he only managed a fourth place, suggests they may well have done so. Losing nearly 30 seconds to Vingegaard was a complete surprise, but then Tadej wiped the floor with everyone as soon as the climbs came along."
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"I think that in the run-up to the Tour, Pogacar will have done more work on his TT and aero position now that he’s happy with his climbing abilities. By contrast, Jonas Vingegaard’s situation is a little trickier," York adds. "Yes, he beat Tadej in that TT, but then he couldn’t live with him uphill. He was the closest rival; however, he was clearly at his limit, whilst his rival seemed to be in complete control. Maybe he’d been concentrating on his TT and aero work in the assumption that his climbing would be unaffected. Getting all the elements to balance out is not a simple affair, even with the resources available in the Visma camp. In terms of mental sparring before the main event, Pogacar landed the big punches when everyone wondered if he could still produce the stage racing performances to match the one-day results he had produced during the Classics campaign."
"That confidence, as any TdF champion will tell you, is a big part of the psychological struggle between riders at this level. The slightest weakness becomes a doubt, and any advantage is confirmation," says York. "Therefore, Tadej Pogacar starts as the favourite and Jonas Vingegaard his nearest challenger."
Can the strength in depth of Team Visma | Lease a Bike turn things around though? As mentioned, York isn't so sure. "Wout van Aert has had his preparations disrupted by illness,
Sepp Kuss hasn’t quite reached his best level, and
Simon Yates has to be carrying some fatigue from the Giro," she notes. "Matteo Jorgensen might well be the last man standing for Vingegaard when the Team UAE Express hits the mountains, because make no mistake, their tactic will be the same one they’ve used in the past – set a tempo where the other leaders are on their limit and then unleash Pogacar."
"In terms of hierarchy, obviously Tadej Pogacar is at the top as favourite, just below is Jonas Vingegaard, and theoretically, the third spot is all to play for," York concludes. "The first proper mountain finish on Hautacam will have many of the answers, but the Tour is always a tale of two riders."