"Van Aert has had his preparations disrupted, Kuss hasn’t reached his best level, and Yates has to be carrying fatigue from the Giro" - Philippa York doubts Visma

Team Visma | Lease a Bike are widely expected to be the team most likely to challenge Tadej Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates - XRG at the 2025 Tour de France. Whether or not they'll be able to secure the Maillot Jaune for Jonas Vingegaard however, Philippa York isn't so sure.

"In the last four editions of the Tour, it’s basically been all square. Both have won two, and both have finished runner-up when the other triumphed. Pogacar’s 2020 debut win puts him ahead of the Dane with three yellow jerseys against Vingegaard's two, but statistically, the two of them dominate at this hallowed level," begins York in her column for Cycling News. "Looking through how each of them established those wins, there have been some indicators of where the strengths of each lie."

"Pogacar at his best would climb with Vingegaard and then distance the Dane in the time trials. The polar opposite has often been true for the Visma leader. Vingegaard in top form could distance Pogacar in the mountains and maintain his lead in the time trials. "However, the Wout van Aert–Visma core depth effects have also been critical to both of Vingegaard’s wins, so the team strength and situation have counted for something. Tactically, they’ve been better than UAE, never better illustrated than on the Galibier en route to Col du Granon, where Pogacar was worked over by Roglic and Vingegaard."

As York notes though, the Pogacar of 2025 is much improved from the version that was double teamed so successfully a few years ago. "This season the World Champion has been pretty faultless," she explains. "His climbing abilities have taken another step forward, so much so that it makes me think they’ve looked at what they are up against and prioritised that part of his game. The recent Dauphine time trial result, where he only managed a fourth place, suggests they may well have done so. Losing nearly 30 seconds to Vingegaard was a complete surprise, but then Tadej wiped the floor with everyone as soon as the climbs came along."

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"I think that in the run-up to the Tour, Pogacar will have done more work on his TT and aero position now that he’s happy with his climbing abilities. By contrast, Jonas Vingegaard’s situation is a little trickier," York adds. "Yes, he beat Tadej in that TT, but then he couldn’t live with him uphill. He was the closest rival; however, he was clearly at his limit, whilst his rival seemed to be in complete control. Maybe he’d been concentrating on his TT and aero work in the assumption that his climbing would be unaffected. Getting all the elements to balance out is not a simple affair, even with the resources available in the Visma camp. In terms of mental sparring before the main event, Pogacar landed the big punches when everyone wondered if he could still produce the stage racing performances to match the one-day results he had produced during the Classics campaign."

"That confidence, as any TdF champion will tell you, is a big part of the psychological struggle between riders at this level. The slightest weakness becomes a doubt, and any advantage is confirmation," says York. "Therefore, Tadej Pogacar starts as the favourite and Jonas Vingegaard his nearest challenger."

Can the strength in depth of Team Visma | Lease a Bike turn things around though? As mentioned, York isn't so sure. "Wout van Aert has had his preparations disrupted by illness, Sepp Kuss hasn’t quite reached his best level, and Simon Yates has to be carrying some fatigue from the Giro," she notes. "Matteo Jorgensen might well be the last man standing for Vingegaard when the Team UAE Express hits the mountains, because make no mistake, their tactic will be the same one they’ve used in the past – set a tempo where the other leaders are on their limit and then unleash Pogacar."

"In terms of hierarchy, obviously Tadej Pogacar is at the top as favourite, just below is Jonas Vingegaard, and theoretically, the third spot is all to play for," York concludes. "The first proper mountain finish on Hautacam will have many of the answers, but the Tour is always a tale of two riders."