PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 4 - Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard battle on the mythical Col du Galibier

Two chaotic hilly stages and a very nervous sprint finale have opened up the Tour de France and now there will be another different test. On stage 4 of the Grand Boucle the riders tackle the high mountains for the first time, with the high-altitude Col du Galibier on the menu of a difficult day where Richard Carapaz will try to defend his lead against the likes of Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. We preview the stage ahead.

And on day 4 of the race, the peloton crosses the border into France, through the Alps. But this will not be an easy or transition day, instead the first day in the high mountains. After climbing 1600 meters of altitude into Sestrière, the GC riders will have their first taste of true climbing in this race and they will do so all the way into the Col du Galibier.

The riders start in Pinerolo at 400 meters of altitude and through a valley will go up all the way into 2037 meters at the summit of the second category climb. It's not one that will make differences but it's not everyday that the riders tackle such a long climb. Some fatigue will set it for sure.

After the descent follows the climb to Col de Montgenvre which is 8.3 kilometers long at 6%. This ascent ends with 68 kilometers to go. A small descent follows and then the riders build up towards the famous Col du Galibier.

Via the Col du Lautaret, this is the easier side of the hugely popular climb, but with 23 kilometers at 5% (the steepest towards the summit) and altitude of over 2600 meters at the summit it can cause damage. Die-hard fans will remembers this as the climb where Andy Schleck won back at the 2011 Tour after an incredible raid in the mountains.

But in it's majority it's not a hard climb. Up until the Col du Lautaret it's a long valley road that doesn't go above 5%, only then does it steepen a bit more. Not overly hard, but it definitely gets harder towards the summit and the gradients go up to 11% right up to the summit, also where there are plenty switchbacks which provide opportunity for differences to be made.

The climb ends with 19 kilometers to go. Almost the whole way to the finish line is downhill. In Valloire there are a few corners and flat roads, but the riders lose 1200 meters in altitude. The start of the descent very exposed and technical, whilst towards the end it gets quite faster.

The Weather

The riders spend the whole day now in the Alps and so the temperatures will drop into something much more manageable. No rain expected, some northwestern wind may be present and this would mostly come as a headwind throughout the day. However I don't think it'll harm the breakaway, perhaps it'll benefit it as instead the GC riders will lose quite a bit of urgepower to attack - Most of the Galibier will have a headwind, towards the summit it does change but overall with short distances and smooth gradients it won't be such a hard day.

The Favourites

UAE - Tadej Pogacar was not able to drop Vingegaard in San Luca. That was his type of climb and terrain, so it was not a good sign for UAE. On such a stage I don't think they can use their numbers, so I think they will race conservatively and try to keep all four GC riders in contention. Juan Ayuso mainly, who struggled in the opening weekend. João Almeida and Adam Yates can do well and cause some splits, whilst Pogacar may attack in the summit of the Galibier but I don't expect big gaps and frankly this terrain does suit Vingegaard better.

Visma - But Jonas Vingegaard will also likely not want to attack. With the climbs not being steep, don't expect Visma to spend the day in the head of the peloton grinding it out. It is a day to conserve the GC as it is, his stages will come in two weeks. Vingegaard honestly doesn't need to do anything for now besides following wheels and that's likely the plan. Keeping Matteo Jorgenson out of the wind and in GC contention is also likely part of the plan.

Remco Evenepoel - A very strong ride on stage 2, we may be seeing an Evenepoel who is hitting the Tour de France in great form. Like the previous teams, Quick-Step will not be working, but Evenepoel likely won't attack either. He is good in his current position and not losing time to the main rivals here would be a good performance. Altitude will be an issue, but the long sustained efforts at low gradients should fit him nicely. Yellow jersey at the end of the day is possible still and he may have that under eye.

Richard Carapaz - A big wildcard. The Ecuadorian has been very inconsistent since joining EF and I stopped considering him a Grand Tour contender. Which version of the Olympic Champion will we have for the next three weeks? I still have my doubts, but for the time being he is sharp, motivated and I'd say that on this stage he can definitely keep his race lead unless there are very serious attacks. At altitude, he should be at his best, and EF come in very strong into the stage.

BORA - If stage 2 showed something is that, for the time being, there is still no reason to sacrifice neither Jai Hindley or Aleksandr Vlasov's GC aspirations. Both of them and Primoz Roglic should try to race conservatively, follow the wheels and keep the team in it's current position, where it can still use their numbers. Roglic is not certain of his form, whilst Hindley was also lacking before the Tour... I wouldn't be surprised to see Vlasov have freedom to attack or go with a stronger group if he has the legs.

INEOS - Another team who should be on the defensive as they have four GC contenders. Laurens de Plus has crashed and with his initial status, that may lower. Tom Pidcock said he won't, but yellow jersey is not impossible and on this day he will be specially motivated as this Galibier descent is exactly where he put on the descent of a lifetime in 2022 - and he could do the same again. Carlos Rodríguez will likely wait for better suited stages, whilst Egan Bernal may actually very much enjoy the high altitude and be amongst the best.

Don't expect other teams to be working, and honestly attacking either. We've got a whole array of quality climbers like Simon Yates, Felix Gall, Enric Mas and Giulio Ciccone. The summit of the Galibier is steep so they may make moves there but they won't be race-deciding. They, alongside DSM's Romain Bardet, Bahrain's Pello Bilbao and Santiago Buitrago will likely want to just stay in the wheels and gauge their level as well as the competitions'. Attacking from far is suicide, but also it's important to remember it's only stage 4 of the race and not many will want to be taking many risks. Derek Gee has lost some time but he can potentially be a very interesting candidate for the stage win.

A breakaway has good chances of succeeding here. Against it are the factors of it being a short stage, EF will want to keep the lead and the start is rather easy. But as I've explained, the headwind on the climbs and the lack of hard gradients means that it's unlikely there will be any team putting in meaningful work to cancel the break - unless there's a GC threat to Carapaz, in that case yes there is. With Pogacar and Vingegaard equally matched on their first battle, likely none of the teams will work early and sacrifice men on such terrain, whilst using numbers to attack also seems quite unlikely as it's easy to chase on such a day.

This gives early attackers more of a chance and with a break win on stage 2 already and gaps having been created, a few riders will certainly want to give it a shot for Tour glory. Warren Barguil and Oscar Onley may give it a shot for DSM again but they may not have much freedom. I would consider their teammate Frank van den Broek, Carlos Verona, Tobias Johannessen, Cristian Rodríguez, Kévin Vauquelin, Ion Izagirre, Alexey Lutsenko, Jesús Herrada, Wout Poels, David Gaudu, Lenny Martínez and Oier Lazkano are all options for this to succeed.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 4:

*** Warren Barguil, Alexey Lutsenko, Tadej Pogacar
** Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Richard Carapaz, Tom Pidcock
* Carlos Rodríguez, Egan Bernal, Adam Yates, João Almeida, Primoz Roglic, Aleksandr Vlasov, Giulio Ciccone, Simon Yates, Oscar Onley, Frank van den Broek, Tobias Johannessen, Ion Izagirre, Wout Poels, Oier Lazkano

Pick: Tom Pidcock