PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 15 - Can Jonas Vingegaard turn the tables on Tadej Pogacar on the toughest stage of the race?

Tadej Pogacar has delivered a strong blow to Jonas Vingegaard in the first duel that has taken place in the Pyrenees. We preview stage 15, the most difficult stage of the race perhaps and one that on paper suits the defending champion better. Will we see the tables turn?

The queen stage? Perhaps in a different edition yes, I wouldn't say it's the case here, but it is just a brutal mountain stage to wrap off the second week. With the rest day ahead the riders will not save themselves on a day with four first-category climbs and an HC summit finish. There will be 5000 meters of climbing and it is the stage with the most climbing meters.

The riders tackle the Col du Peyresourde right from the start of the 198-kilometer day. This is a proper mountain stage, the kind that the Tour now rarely offers. Right from the gun the peloton rides up one of the Tour's most famous climbs which is 7 kilometers long at 7.8%. Expect action here, with the climbers going crazy off the front.

After descending the riders tackle the Col de Mente. I reckon this is the hardest climb of the day but it ends with around 150 kilometers to go still. It's 9.4 kilometers long at 8.6%, steep and very constant with a lot of switchbacks towards the summit.

After the descent comes the Col de Portet d'Aspet, the steepest climb of the day which is 4.4 kilometers long at 9.7%. Although it's very difficult, the descent requires maximum attention as it is very technical and dangerous. It ends with 133 kilometers to go. The following hour provides an opportunity to rest and prepare for the stage finale.

The Port d'Agnes follows, it's 10.1 kilometers long at 8.2%, another brute. This climb ends with 49.5 kilometers to go and the pace can seriously ramp up at this point in the day. A very technical short descent leads the riders to the uncategorized Port de Lers which is 4.4 kilometers long at 5.4%, and this one ends with 41 kilometers to go.

Very quickly the riders reach the base of Plateau de Beille. Funnily, despite being very difficult, the summit finishes atop this ascent in 2011 and 2015 barely created any differences among the GC contenders. An interesting scenario, but at the end of a 200-kilometer and 5000 climbing meters-stage it may not be the same this time around.

The climb is 15.7 kilometers long at 7.8%. It has it's steepest points, above 10%, from 8 to 6 kilometers to go and the main attacks could happen here. But overall it's a hard climb that is relatively constant and with plenty switchbacks. Everything is set for a mammoth GC battle.

The Weather

Warmer temperatures and no real wind to mention. A full day in the mountains, it will be exciting and the weather shouldn't discourage any offensive racing.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar & Jonas Vingegaard - The race has changed, in my opinion. After Vingegaard's victory on the Massif Central I wasn't sure who would take it up today but I did think Pogacar would be on the back foot to Vingegaard. I was wrong, and I reckon that has changed significantly because today was a proper mountain stage and now the lead of the Slovenian is of 1:57 minutes. It's not something that can just evaporate quickly unless Pogacar has a huge crack - which is not likely. Overall I truly think Pogacar has indeed evolved over this past year. Right now, he can indeed afford to race defensively.

Visma benefits from long days of work and burning off his explosivity, but the reality is they don't have a team to successfully do that here it seems. This is a day that suits Vingegaard to the core and they are likely to take it up on the many climbs and repeated efforts. They will try, and I would say it's less likely that Pogacar can make a difference here. But I don't think Visma will be able to drain him enough to then make a meaningful difference on the final climb. And Pogacar now is justified to just ride the wheels and begin his own psychological counter-attack on the Dane.

It is noteworthy that on this climb, despite it being very hard, it has only seen tiny differences both in 2011 and 2015. We'll see if the same happens this time around... If it becomes very tactical we could see Remco Evenepoel perhaps take advantage of it. Vingegaard does not care about second or third, he cares about victory and so if he can't drop Pogacar, he will force Pogacar to be one closing gaps to Evenepoel. I envision something similar to Carlos Rodríguez' win in last year's race.

GC Fight - The Spaniard himself was the fourth best on Pla d'Adet and I expect the same, or maybe third best on Plateau de Beille. The Spaniard is indeed on the rise and performs at his best on mammoth mountain stages such as this. I don't think INEOS will work, but they definitely will have in mind a possible attack. If Evenepoel does not crack in this Tour, it's in a day like this that Rodríguez has the obligation to try and take some time if he still wants to dream of a podium.

The rest of the GC riders will be rinse and repeat. Specially in such a brutal day, it's all about staying in the wheels and then trying to reach the finish as fast as possible on the final climb. The level is very even. We've got João Almeida and Adam Yates who will try to be with Pogacar for as long as possible; Matteo Jorgenson who will likely work for Vingegaard on the final climb; then Mikel Landa, Giulio Ciccone, Derek Gee, Felix Gall and Santiago Buitrago who are fighting for the lower places in the Top10.

Breakaway - The rest of the field is just looking to succeed on the day via a breakaway. Which is possible, UAE have no reason whatsoever to push the pace or even try to control a front group. INEOS or Soudal won't do it either, it's all up to Visma. But we do have very strong climbers with freedom who could benefit from the tactics behind. Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz are the clear contenders, judging by today's stage. Louis Meintjes and Ben Healy who were in the breakaway today finished right after, certainly they stand a chance as well with great form. Guillaume Martin, Javier Romo, Chris Harper, Tobias Johannessen, Wout Poels, Enric Mas, Jai Hindley, David Gaudu and Romain Bardet are also riders to consider.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 15:

*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Remco Evenepoel, Simon Yates, Richard Carapaz
* Carlos Rodríguez, Felix Gall, Adam Yates, João Almeida, Mikel Landa, Giulio Ciccone, Louis Meintjes, Ben Healy, Guillaume Martin, David Gaudu, Chris Harper

Pick: Simon Yates