PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 12

The 2024 Tour de France will feature a distinctive setup, starting with its Grand Depart in Florence and Emilia-Romagna, just across the border in Italy. For the first time in several years, the race will conclude away from Paris, with the riders heading to Nice for the finale. Spanning from June 29th to July 21st, let's take a closer look at the upcoming stage.

Stage 12 is a transition day through western France. It is 204 kilometers long from Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot, a day starting at relative high altitude and finishing close to sea level, with plenty small ascents en route to a finale where a bunch sprint is still the most likely scenario.

It's a day where early on attacks are expected, as it is a well suited day for the breakaway. This time around the Tour has not been gentle on the long stages and these definitely weight on the legs of the sprinters. With 2200 meters of climbing, it also breaks the traditional idea of a regular sprint stage. But it's the downhill trend on the day combined with the many many small ascents that really makes it viable for a strong group to stay away.

The peloton will have to keep a tight leash on any escapee group right from the start of the day, but if it does so efficiently than a bunch sprint remains the most likely scenario. There is a small hilltop that ends with just 8.5 kilometers to go, a final opportunity to put the hurt on the pure sprinters; before an urban finale in Villeneuve-sur-Lot.

It will be a tense sprint with a roundabout, a river crossing and a few treacherous fast corners from 2.5 to 1.2 kilometers to go. But the final straight is 1.2 kilometer long, which means the sprinters won't risk their life to position ahead of this section. There will be a fight, but there is time to recover places in the final kilometer still. The sprint will be flat, albeit perhaps with 1/2% gradient to the line, and in a complete straight line.

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Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 12:

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