PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 12 - Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay battle for green jersey on hilly day

The race departs the Massif Central, towards the Pyrenees. We preview stage 12 of the Tour de France, a day that should end in a bunch sprint but the hilly profile does allow breakaway opportunists to dream of a surprise.

Stage 12 is a transition day through western France. It is 204 kilometers long from Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot, a day starting at relative high altitude and finishing close to sea level, with plenty small ascents en route to a finale where a bunch sprint is still the most likely scenario.

It's a day where early on attacks are expected, as it is a well suited day for the breakaway. This time around the Tour has not been gentle on the long stages and these definitely weight on the legs of the sprinters. With 2200 meters of climbing, it also breaks the traditional idea of a regular sprint stage. But it's the downhill trend on the day combined with the many many small ascents that really makes it viable for a strong group to stay away.

The peloton will have to keep a tight leash on any escapee group right from the start of the day, but if it does so efficiently than a bunch sprint remains the most likely scenario. There is a small hilltop that ends with just 8.5 kilometers to go, a final opportunity to put the hurt on the pure sprinters; before an urban finale in Villeneuve-sur-Lot.

It will be a tense sprint with a roundabout, a river crossing and a few treacherous fast corners from 2.5 to 1.2 kilometers to go. But the final straight is 1.2 kilometer long, which means the sprinters won't risk their life to position ahead of this section. There will be a fight, but there is time to recover places in the final kilometer still. The sprint will be flat, albeit perhaps with 1/2% gradient to the line, and in a complete straight line.

The Weather

A very unusual day weather-wise. It will be hot in the center of France but rain could also fall. It would not come as a surprise, it is more likely later in the day. Throughout the day there will be a western breeze, bad news for breakaways as this will come as a headwind throughout most of the stage. On paper, if a sprint were to be affected by the wind, it'd be a crosswind, but this is unlikely.

The Favourites

Jasper Philipsen - Having now won a sprint, confidence will be back somewhat and Alpecin have finally made their leadout work. It is a good sight for the Belgian team, who will certainly fully commit to controlling the breakaway here in chase of another win and points for the green jersey.

Biniam Girmay - I wouldn't expect Intermarché to do so, because they already have wins in the bag for Girmay and he wants green now. A breakaway win would benefit him as there would be little points for Philipsen to gain. But for the stage win you simply cannot count him out as he is in great form, very consistent and fast in a pure sprint, but also he is a rider that can handle rough days and climbing quite well so this is definitely a day that suits him for another top result.

A day where a few pure sprinters may suffer. Even if a breakaway doesn't go up the road, the profile isn't completely flat and the fatigue will weigh on some's legs. DSM has Fabio Jakobsen but John Degenkolb may instead sprint like the last one; whilst Mark Cavendish may also give way to Davide Ballerini or Cees Bol. The likes of Dylan Groenewegen, Phil Bauhaus and Sam Bennett would also like an easy stage in order to have their top speed still at the finale.

We have on the opposite side riders like Wout van Aert, Bryan Coquard, Marijn van den Berg, Alexander Kristoff and Arnaud De Lie who would benefit from a rough day and a sprint without a few riders - or with fatigued legs.

In the middle a mix, with riders such as a very strong in-form Pascal Ackermann being a worthy figure to consider; Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud Démare in their best day also have the legs to ride for a win I would say but it will be complicated.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 12:

*** Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay
** Dylan Groenewegen, Wout van Aert, Pascal Ackermann
* Fernando Gaviria, Sam Bennett, Phil Bauhaus, Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud De Lie, Mark Cavendish, Arnaud Démare

Pick: Jasper Philipsen