PREVIEW | Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 6 - Mattias Skjelmose leads race into queen stage; Schachmann, Ayuso, Del Toro, McNulty and Buitrago all dangerous rivals

Itzulia Basque Country is a race that so far has been completely marked by the crashes. The GC fight took place on the opening time-trial, but ever since only a few seconds changed between favourites. Everything is left for the final and brutal queen stage, where the gaps are very close and Mattias Skjelmose will be put under serious pressure.

The queen stage. Many of the days throughout the week can see dangerous attacks, but the climbers will really come into their own in the classic Eibar day. It won't end with a climb but has seven categorized ascents. 3300 meters of climbing in just 138 kilometers to go. The start of the day sees three ascents: 2.6Km at 6.2%, 5.1Km at 7.4% and 9.6Km at 5.6%, all within just over 30 kilometers and all with gradients that go well above it's average.

The descents are technical, it wouldn't be the first time if the peloton split outside of the climbs themselves. The toughest climb of the day will soon arrive: Krabelin (4.4Km; 10%). It will be present halfway through the stage, it's 5 kilometers at 9.5% but the gradients reach much higher numbers. It's middle has a whole kilometer at 15%, it's a savage climb that ends with 68 kilometers to the finish.

Following it is a small descent and some rolling terrain. Three hilltops follow: 3.3Km at 6.9% (45Km to go); 700 meters at 11% (41Km to go) and 1Km at 6.4% (38Km to go). The quick succession will be complicated, but the real problem is that these climbs are sandwiched between the most important two of the day, and should only contribute to the fatigue.

It's in Izua (4.1Km; 9.1%) that the main moves are expected, it's the penultimate climb which summits with 27 kilometers to go. This is the final tough ascent of the race. Hard enough to create serious differences and close enough to the finish to go all-out. After six hilly days all can be turned around here.

In Urkaregi, which is 5.3Km at 4.5%, some differences can still be made. It's unlikely that attacks can succeed as the climb is literally half the gradient of the previous, but with the fatigue built up everything's possible. Above attacking, it's a place to consolidate previously established gaps, the climb summits with 13.2 kilometers to go.

From there on it isn't smooth sailing to the finish but the descent won't be as technical as some ridden before in the day. The race will finish in the center of Eibar, a very aesthetic finale to what is one of the most prestigious races of the year.

The Weather

Strong wind from the south, but this should not affect the day too much. The entire day will be in the middle of the Basque mountains and all climbs take place in different directions, with plenty hairpins and changes of direction. Descents and the small flat areas are virtually the same.

The Favourites

Mattias Skjelmose - Stuck in a deadly position. Skjelmose leads the race into the final day but this was because of all the riders crashing out. The Lidl-Trek rider himself has already crashed this week, but seems to have recovered from it. However with the yellow jersey on his hands and a team that does not look overly strong, winning the race will be unlikely. It's a day where attacks are expected from far, and when they happen often other teams will look at him and Lidl. Today that also happened and he closed down moves himself. In a tougher day, rivals will then use the climbs to distance him - taking into consideration he isn't likely the strongest climber in the race to begin with, although he is there. If he sat second I'd say he was more likely to win the race, but I think pressure here will be too much.

UAE - UAE have Juan Ayuso at 4 seconds, Brandon McNulty at 13, Isaac Del Toro at 32 and Marc Soler at 47. They have attacked a lot today I cannot blame them after not having won time, but they've given great signs. Juan Ayuso, who crashed a few days ago, is third in the GC but I can't say for certain if he's having the best legs due to the fall. He is a key part of the team's strategy, because he barely needs to take time to jump into the race lead, which gives his teammates clear role of attacking and putting pressure. But they will anyway; all three other guys have great engines and can do damage even in solo attacks. Del Toro specifically I am confident in, he looked superb today and is right on the verge of a massive win. If he has the same legs as today, he's a clear win candidate for both day and GC.

BORA - Max Schachmann looked incredible today, it was the first time we've seen the best of him in years! I was truly surprised, but it was a day for puncheurs. The final stage is more for the climbers. Perhaps too difficult for the German, however he has shown in the past to be capable of handling them and ultimately is a contender for the stage but also overall win as he's second only behind Skjelmose. BORA have the chance to do something with Jai Hindley as well who sits 47 seconds away from the lead; I'd say more a card to play from far away but on good legs he can do serious damage.

Bahrain - Santiago Buitrago looked incredible today, and honestly he also did at Paris-Nice where he was matching the best. This kind of stages suit him well, he's an explosive rider, who is also showing good downhill technique. I think Bahrain have serious chances of doing damage tomorrow; the Colombian is 37 seconds away from yellow, far away enough that he might get a little freedom but close enough that the overall win is actually not impossible. Pello Bilbao is also a rider who will love this stage as it is in his home roads and includes plenty descents where he can make the difference, not just the climbs.

You've got Ion Izagirre who has finished on the podium of this race in six different occasions, and he truly races at his best at home. He can do again with certainty - if he is to do it anywhere this year, it's the most likely location. Carlos Rodríguez and Kévin Vauquelin are in my opinion good contenders for a strong result as well.

The Frenchmen Romain Grégoire and Bruno Armirail aren't exactly suited to this terrain, but they sit fifth and seventh at the start of the day and could eventually finish within the Top10 with a good day. Alex Baudin, their compatriot, could also surprise. Rigobert Uran and Esteban Chaves will look to do something with the reduced field.

A breakaway can also win on the day but it will be hard, the strongest will fight for the win and surely most of them are not riders who have already lost time in this race. But we do have strong riders who can fight such as KOM leader Louis Meintjes; Sepp Kuss, Eddie Dunbar, Oscar Onley, Felix Gall and Rémy Rochas.

Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 6:

*** Isaac Del Toro, Santiago Buitrago
** Juan Ayuso, Brandon McNulty, Max Schachmann
* Mattias Skjelmose, Jai Hindley, Kévin Vauquelin, Pello Bilbao, Ion Izagirre, Carlos Rodríguez

Pick: Santiago Buitrago