PREVIEW | Paris-Roubaix 2024 - Can Mathieu van der Poel win Flanders and Roubaix in the same season?

Paris-Roubaix takes place on the 7th of April this year and it is the grand climax of the cobbled classics. This will be the final and ultimate one, the third monument of the season features 55 kilometers of cobbled roads and every single year it is a highlight of the season. We preview the race ahead.

One of the most difficult races in the calendar. Paris-Roubaix is an unique event, having a massive distance for the riders to go through in the north of France, including 29 different cobbled sectors which total to 55.7 kilometers away from tarmac. It's a race for the classics specialists, the powerhouse riders and the endurance monsters, who can fly over famous sectors such as the Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l'Arbre.

Like it’s been for several years, the route will go through a massive 260 kilometers, starting in Compiègne heading north, where the first cobbled sectors will be encountered with just under 100 kilometers of racing, which will make for around 2 hours of racing to settle and establish a breakaway. Also, as it’s been the case for some years, the breakaway should be highly contested, which can make for a furiously fast start. The teams controlling should keep a tight leash on who can go free from the pack or not. And most teams will try to have riders in front for strategical purposes later, specially with the weather conditions that will be taking place.

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And this should be a sight most riders recognize very well. Some will be relieved pleased to go through it, some won’t be very happy with it. The Troisville sector, the first of 29 comes with a little over 95 kilometers of racing, it’s 2.2Km long, but the initial combination of sectors last year caused some damage in the peloton quite early on. This is the place where the true race starts, some may say.

Haveluy to Wallers (2500 meters, 101Km to go), this one will come right before the most iconic sector of the race. Everyone who loves cycling knows it, the Trouée d’Arenberg is “only” 2300 meters but is famed with one of the most traditional view in modern cycling. The full sector is in a straight line but is one that demands technical expertise.

Line choice is crucial as the cobblestones in it are of an immense brutality. Adding the huge speed the riders will enter the sector it’ll make for maybe the most tense moment of the race, the lead-out to Arenberg sees truly remarkable fights, it starts slightly downhill and turns into slightly uphill, making for a really hard sector to make any acceleration, it’s a case of keeping the power up for the entire run. It comes with 93Km to go.

Hornaing to Wandignies is 3700 meters long and is the next 4-star sector with 78Km to go, then there’s Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières which is 2400 meters long and comes with 68.5Km to go. And with 50.5Km to go there’s the Auchy to Bersée sector and it’s 2700 meters in length, which set the riders up for the following sector. Obviously, the Mons-en-Pévèle sector, it’s 3Km long and finishes with 46Km to go, it will be the second 5-star sector of the race and comes in a crucial time where the decisive attacks are to come.

The final combination of sectors where it’s likely to see differences being made is the Camphin-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Abre. They are 4 and 5-star sectors respectively, feature 1800 and 2100 meters in distance and come with 18Km and 15Km to go.

They aren’t the final sectors, but with such a brutal race to that point and a very short distance to the finale, it’s the ideal place to make a move for everyone who has the legs, the Carrefour de l’Abre sector is one of great technical demand, and need of several accelerations, which is something not all riders will be capable of at that point of the race.

There’s still the Willems to Hem sector with 7Km to go, a 3-star sector that’s been recently introduced into the race, but it’s not usual to see gaps being made there, but who knows, with a group it can happen. The final kilometers will be well known, the entrance in Roubaix in flat roads, in case of a group coming into town it’s likely to see some attempts of surprising in it, which will lead to the velodrome, the race’s symbol almost, where a deserving winner will emerge from a brutal race.

The Weather

Rain is possible. If so, it will not be heavy that will not be a concern, but on the day and the days leading up, the small amount of forecast rainfall will be enough to make the cobbles slippery. We won't have a special edition weather wise, but as always it will play a role. Wind-wise it will blow meaningfully from the southwest. A tailwind early in the day, benefit to breakaways which should make the battle at the start even more interesting and the day even faster and harder. We've got mixed sections of crosswind and tailwind throughout the entire day including the final hours of racing. Attackers will have weather on their side.

The Favourites

Mathieu van der Poel - The defending champion is a rider who thrives in the long races and Roubaix is one of them. Flanders with the climbs suit him better, Roubaix is definitely not perfect for van der Poel but the lack of climbs is perhaps compensated by his great skills on the bike which he can benefit from here. Alpecin looked strong enough to keep everything under control in Flanders and here the same should happen. Gianni Vermeersch a reliable second card, Jasper Philipsen an absolute wildcard after winning Milano-Sanremo and finishing second here last year - I would not be surprised if he surged for victory this time around, but van der Poel himself can win in all kinds of scenarios and gives the team that edge that perhaps other teams will not have.

Visma - Visma arrived to the monuments without several of their leaders. Honestly, without the pressure I recon some of the team's lesser known riders like Tim van Dijke, Edoardo Affini and Per Strand Hagenes can be very dangerous with early attacks. Eyes will not be on one particular rider in fact, the leadership should be shared responsibilities between Jorgenson, former winner Dylan van Baarle and perhaps Christophe Laporte if he takes to the start.

Lidl - Trek - A strong team. Without Stuyven and Kirsch, which would've made them perhaps the best collective, but still strong. Mads Pedersen showed the crash did not affect him in Flanders, but there his tactics were not the best. He burnt himself with a (virtually) solo attack, but he won't do the same here. This is a classic that suits him much better he himself admits, he loves the distance, the flat cobbles are perfect for a heavyweight rider like him and Trek have the weapons on terrain like this to put the pressure on the rest as they don't have to face climbs later. Pedersen is a victory candidate and beat van der Poel and Gent-Wevelgem if we need any more evidence; but it's the presence of Jonathan Milan who can really decide the race. I have belief in the Italian, he is on spectacular form and if he has luck with falls and positioning, he can absolutely fly through every single sector with the very best or even more. Even if he is not played as an offensive card, he's extremely dangerous for a possible sprint.

Movistar - Oier Lazkano has been riding a terrific season and has consolidated himself as a very talented contender for the cobbled classics. His results are not lucky shots, but the result of a stupendous rouleur, who has time and time again attacked over the least steep sectors in the Flandrien classics. For me, everything points that he will be able to do even better in the Roubaix cobbles as long as he avoids crashes. Movistar have actually got a strong lineup for this race including Iván García Cortina, Rémi Cavagna and a few other rouleurs who are known for their breakaway prowess who can get them ahead of the competition.

UAE - One of the first teams to confirm their lineup, UAE has little doubt of their plans for Sunday. Four riders rode very well in Flanders, the same four aim for a result in Roubaix. To win is difficult... I'd recon António Morgado will struggle with positioning and the lack of climbing, whilst the route doesn't favour Tim Wellens much, but both can be early cards to play in the right scenario. The race suits Nils Politt like a glove and the German is in tremendous form after a spring of much success. He's been close to winning here, he can perhaps be one of Mathieu van der Poel's biggest rivals, whils the form and engine of Mikkel Bjerg can be extremely dangerous if he finds himself off the front.

Uno-X - The Norwegians are riders who like this tough terrain and they come with a few riders who can certainly do quite well. Powerhouse Jonas Abrahamsen was second at Dwars door Vlaanderen and certainly is at this point a viable contender for a strong result, as he is also an aggressive rider who doesn't tend to be covered by favourites. The team counts on the very experienced Alexander Kristoff, the successor Soren Waerenskjold who are all heavyweight riders who can handle these sectors well, and also Rasmus Tiller who's proven himself to be a quality figure for the classics.

Perhaps we can separate the rest of the favourites by two different aspects. You've got on one side the experienced riders. Here I would definitely consider riders like Oliver Naesen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Pierre Gautherat, Florian Sénéchal, Alberto Bettiol, Stefan Küng, Mike Teunissen, Max Walscheid, Kasper Asgreen, Anthony Turgis and John Degenkolb as men who know what to expect and will have good ideas of the timings of the right attacks. Experience and keeping a cool head is crucial in this race, we have heard many times in the past. Age and weight certainly are aspects that actually help in Roubaix, which is why perhaps this race is so interesting (well, another aspect). Tom Pidcock is a late entry to this luxurious startlist, his lack of weight makes him fragile in such terrain, but he's more talented than most on the bike which can make him an interesting contender in wet cobbles.

On the other side less experienced figures in these classics. This does not mean they are younger or have raced less here, they have less tradition of being in the head of these races; but in my opinion have the legs to take a strong result. Take Joshua Tarling for example, an absolute beast for the flat terrain, if he has the luck and dials positioning he is legitimately a contender for victory I recon. We've got some riders like Luca Mozzato and Riley Sheehan who rode brilliantly in Flanders and I'm really interested to see how they replicate it here in Roubaix; whilst we can add Fred Wright, Laurenz Rex, Laurence Pithie, Stefan Bissegger, Nils Eekhoff, Dries van Gestel, Tim Merlier and Brent van Moer as contenders for a Top10 as well.

Prediction Paris-Roubaix 2024:

*** Mathieu van der Poel
** Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen, Jonathan Milan, Oier Lazkano
* Dylan van Baarle, Christophe Laporte, Oliver Naesen, Luca Mozzato, Alberto Bettiol, Stefan Küng, Yves Lampaert, Nils Politt, Jonas Abrahamsen, Tom Pidcock

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel