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PREVIEW | Il Lombardia 2024 - Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel or a surprise... Who will win the final monument of the season?
CyclingSaturday, 12 October 2024 at 09:21
On the 12th of October the cycling peloton tackles the final monument of the season: Il Lombardia. The queen of the Italian autumn classics is the monument for the climbers and every years features an exciting route packed with iconic climbs. We preview the race ahead.
The route is extremely long, the traditional, and it packs in a lot of mountains in the region of northern Italy right at the base of the Alps. 255 kilometers on the menu with both long and short climbs spread all throughout, with a total of 4800 meters of climbing. A proper climber's race, the monument best suited to them. The race does have a flat start but it doesn't take long until that changes.
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Bergamo - Como, 255.1 kilometers
Four climbs marks the first half of the race. We have got the Forcellino di Bianzano (6.3Km at 5.1%) and quickly after Selvino which was a late replacement for the Passo di Ganda. Afterwards comes the Colle di Berbenno which is 4.5 kilometers at 6.2% and finally the Valpiana ascent which is over 10 kilometers long at 6%.
However this phase of the race won't see serious attacks, but instead only be used to create fatigue; perhaps some contenders will have their teams force the pace to make it hard from early on. A long flat section will follow before reaching the famous Madonna del Ghisallo, but it will be tackled through it's easiest side.
It consists of two small climbs with a short descent in the middle. The first of which is 5 kilometers long at 5.6% and the second is 8.1 kilometers long at 3.7%. In these gradients it's very hard to make a difference, however the descent will be very technical and provides an opportunity to explode the race before it's main climb.
Madonna del Ghisallo: 8.1Km; 3.7%; 78Km to go
Sormano is a very well known in cycling, but the riders will be thankful that they won't tackle the famous 'muro'. Instead, the riders will ascend through the main road. It is a climb that is nevertheless very difficult, featuring almost 13 kilometers at 6.4%. The climb is rather constant with high gradients and is the hardest of the day, where the winning attack may come. It ends with 42 kilometers to go though, still a long way to the finish.
Colma di Sormano: 12.9Km; 6.4%; 42Km to go
From there on there is a long descent, a small rolling section and then another descent into Como where the riders will ride through in order to reach the final ascent. This one will be to San Fermo della Battaglia: 2.8 kilometers at 6.7%. It's by far not the hardest climb of the day but with 250 hard kilometers in the legs, even the strongest climbers can make differences between each other. However, that is not too likely.
What is known is that the summit comes with only 5.2 kilometers to go and what follows is a technical and fast descent that leads into the final 1.5 kilometers. Any gap over the end of the climb means an almost certain victory.
San Fermo della Battaglia: 2.8Km; 6.7%; 5.2Km to go
The Weather
Map Il Lombardia 2024
After the massive rainfall that fell earlier in the week in the region, it dries up towards the weekend. A bit of rain could still fall, and we may seem damp roads, but nothing like what we've seen at the Giro dell'Emilia or Tre Valli Varesine.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The winner of the past three editions and the man to beat. The strongest climber in the race, with great form, no weak points and a mega strong team... There really are few arguments against the World Champion. Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov and Rafal Majka are all strong climbers who will likely set up an attack in Sormano and can still chase their own result... The team is very strong all around but it even includes Marc Hirschi. Pogacar can afford to abandon the race and UAE will remain the main favourites.
Remco Evenepoel - On paper he would be Pogacar's main rival, but that will be if he shows his best legs. The rain shouldn't be present so it won't hinder him here, and he looked strong at the worlds, but at Coppa Bernocchi he did not look good and the talk over the past week has been one of fatigue, not a confident sign into the race.
BORA - Without Primoz Roglic, but the team has options to fight for a podium, quite a lot. Daniel Martínez perhaps the least reliable as he hasn't shown good form since May, but there he was second to Pogacar at the Giro. We have Florian Lipowitz who looked very strong at the Giro dell'Emilia and is coming in as a very strong pure climber; Aleksandr Vlasov who's been back at his best this year and also a Roger Adrià who has been in the form of his life recently.
Honestly, I don't see anyone matching Pogacar on this day. But the hard climbs do come further from the finish and so if there's not a 100% effort, some riders may be able to follow, besides the ones above. In 2022 Enric Mas was a formidable opponent in this race and looked stupendous at the Vuelta and Worlds, he is definitely one to eye; Visma have Matteo Jorgenson who will certainly try, and Wilco Kelderman also as an option; The likes of David Gaudu, Lennert van Eetvelt and Simon Yates are also brilliant climbers but need their best legs to be in this podium fight.
Then a long list of riders who will be in the Top10 battle, fighting with each other. Bahrain certainly come with a strong and experienced lineup, having Antonio TIberi, Pello Bilbao and Santiago Buitrago also realistically aiming for a podium. We add to this pure climber list riders such as Lorenzo Fortunato, Guillaume Martin, Alex Baudin, George Bennett, Giulio Ciccone, Romain Bardet, Michael Storer, Tobias Johannessen, Bardiani duo Domenico Pozzovivo and Giulio Pellizari, and finally Giro dell'Emilia revelation Davide Piganzoli.
We've got a few riders who can also climb quite well and would benefit from a calmer race in the first half, and more explosive towards in the end. In the small final ascent they will be matched with the climbers, whilst in Sormano some are expected to ride alongside the regular climbers. Tom Pidcock certainly showed good form this week and will be a good option; Lidl-Trek have last year's runner-up Andrea Bagioli, Toms Skujins and Bauke Mollema who both showed peak form at the World Championships...
Maxim van Gils, Tiesj Benoot, Neilson Powless, Valentin Madouas, Kévin Vauquelin and Israel - Premier Tech duo Michael Woods and Stephen Williams will be eager to fight for a strong result in the sharp final climb.
Prediction Il Lombardia 2024:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Marc Hirschi, Tom Pidcock, Florian Lipowitz, Enric Mas, Remco Evenepoel
* Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Matteo Jorgenson, Wilco Kelderman, Lennert van Eetvelt, David Gaudu, Simon Yates, Antonio Tiberi, Pello Bilbao, Santiago Buitrago, Michael Woods, Davide Piganzoli, Tiesj Benoot
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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- Based on what argument?Mistermaumau21-12-2024
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- That’s the most stupid thing I’ve read for a long time, did you not go to school and learn even the most basic physics? Aero depends on one thing only, drag, drag depends speed and the relationship is squared and apart from maybe at zero or the speed of sound or due to side winds that relationship is valid at all speeds, it dies not “suddenly” start at a magic number. Very simply, the faster you go the more the effect becomes important. If you think 25km/h is needed to have noticeable effects you’re delusional, athletic WR are cancelled as soon as winds top 2m/s that’s 7.2km/h, why because the assistance is already too important at that speed and the times prove it. You don’t even consider wind which can significantly increase the effective speed for aerodynamics and you underestimate speed of climbs, 6% is ridden more at 30 than 25km/h, a speed at which early generation high rims were considered to have more advantages than disadvantages. And finally, as in normal races you can’t just switch bikes according to terrain, it’s pretty pointless to discuss climbs as a separate situation, the aero will have justified itself plenty during the rest of the ride.Mistermaumau21-12-2024