Pedal Punditry #10 (Transfer talk) - Simon Yates to Visma; Jhonatan Narváez to UAE; Ben O'Connor to Jayco, the INEOS problem and more

The transfer season officially opens on the 1st of August every year and, although most of these are known, a few transfers have already been made public. On this Pedal Punditry I talk about the most prominent market moves of the first few days including those of Simon Yates, Jhonatan Narváez, Ben O'Connor and more.

The main transfer of these first days so far in my opinion is Simon Yates to Team Visma | Lease a Bike. Already rumoured a few months ago (as most in this list, actually), it looked to be a logic move for both sides. The Briton has already had many years of leadership with Jayco, has led and won Grand Tours, won stages in all of them... He's achieved what was possible to him on this structure that he's raced for since 2014. A move was expected eventually. He rode his best ever Tour de France last year finishing fourth even though Jayco has stopped putting much focus into these over the past few years.

After seeing the development of other climbers and the good words coming from those who join Visma, Yates has also made the move to find out if he can still improve. His brother Adam certainly did after moving from INEOS to UAE, and Simon could experience similar growth in a team that focuses more on the details. It is a win-win, as he should still have leadership in some races, and Visma gets a new strong climber to support Jonas Vingegaard and pursue Tour de France success.

The departure of Primoz Roglic and the long list of injuries this season exposed the team's issues. Although they still presented a very consistent lineup for the Tour de France, Matteo Jorgenson and Wilco Kelderman were not enough to deliver the necessary firepower for Visma to put UAE (of Adam Yates and João Almeida in the mountains) under pressure. The stronger teams keep getting stronger and that trend is very visisble here. I do expect Yates to improve or at the very least have his best level more consistently and perhaps become a new Sepp Kuss for Vingegaard.

Like Jayco, Visma also brought in another leader from a minor team in Cofidis: Axel Zingle. An unusual transfer for Visma, who focus a lot on the Grand Tours and have a very strong and consolidated block for the cobbled classics. Zingle isn't a rider that will likely fit in neither. He is a prime UCI point scorer for the French team, a puncheur with a strong sprint who can do very well in the one-day races. An interesting transfer... I believe like Matteo Jorgenson the team also spotted an enormously talented rider who isn't having good backing which is limiting him, and can turn him into a rider rather similar to compatriot Christophe Laporte. I don't know exactly what to expect from this move but I think both sides will win, whilst Cofidis loses another leader (adding to Guillaume Martin).

INEOS Grenadiers is on a downward spiral. Just today it was revealed Dan Bigham is leaving the team over clear lack of leadership and bad decision that limit it's potential. The team has lost Richard Carapaz, Adam Yates, Daniel Martínez, Dylan van Baarle and other of it's leaders in recent years and haven't replaced them with anyone new capable of leading the team. It put a lot focus on the time-trials with Filippo Ganna and Joshua Tarling, I admit to a lot of success and they do it well; but in the Grand Tours they now completely rely on a young Carlos Rodríguez whilst Egan Bernal and Tom Pidcock take a huge part of the team budget without having the results (on the road!) to show for.

The team has the same budget it used to have, but it no longer can match the uprising of UAE Team Emirates and Team Visma | Lease a Bike. It does not even have an under-23 team, in a time where their rival teams are signing almost all of the big under-23 stars. Instead, the team signs 18/19-year olds, and in some cases (like Theodor Storm) the rider is signed and doesn't race with the team at all. This is a recipe for disaster in the short-term. No the team is not in a black hole or disaster, it also remains in the top positions of the UCI rankings, but it is nowhere near the level of the 2010's and most importantly the gap is growing to the new top teams.

Narvaéz' move is the perfect example for this. The Ecuadorian is a rider signed in 2019 for the team and grew into a brilliant puncheur and classics rider, capable of beating even Tadej Pogacar this year at the Giro d'Italia. This is a success story that, although not in the Grand Tours, brings the light to INEOS and what they are still capable of achieving. But at the end of 2024 he will leave the team to... UAE. A team where he will not have more freedom, but likely a bigger salary. Narváez' move to me is almost confusing as he will not get a leading position in a team with Pogacar and other strong classics riders, but seeing how riders develop after moving to UAE and Visma justifies it in my opinion. Meanwhile INEOS stagnate, and will not have any transfer that can replace what Narváez gave them this year.

UAE are big winners. Their endless pocket continues to net them big leaders in multiple terrains and also the stars of the future... Narváez was developed by INEOS and now UAE will host him at his prime for at least 2 years. The team races all year long with it's puncheurs given freedom in smaller races and I think he will win a lot in 2025.

The team also made a big for Florian Vermeersch, one of the riders leaving Lotto Dstny as it struggles currently with it's sponsor situation. Lotto will have this issue in the future as it's developing many great riders but does not have the money to keep them (looking at you Lennert van Eetvelt and Jarno Widar, mainly). Vermeersch suffered major injuries this year however and is a gamble for UAE, but I believe one that will work as he will recover. Like Nils Politt, Vermeeersch is a former runner-up at Paris-Roubaix and is the same kind of very strong rouleur and classics rider, also capable of supporting the team in the Grand Tours. The team loved Politt's performances and are trying to find a new version of the German.

O'Connor to Decathlon was a transfer that at first looked rather weird to me, but one that worked well. A traditional French team betting all their chips on an Australian rider is certainly not the most common story in the sport but is what happened here. And he proved this investment was worthy, finishing fourth in the 2021 Tour de France. In the coming years, the team actually put in their full focus in some occasions on O'Connor's ambitions at the Tour, even though at times I didn't feel they needed to commit as much but instead prioritize stage wins. Decathlon did everything right for O'Connor in my opinion, but a change was going to happen eventually and their relationships has ran it's course.

The 28-year old has by no means lost quality, but in the current spectrum of Grand Tour rider development, a Top10 is the best he can achieve at a Tour de France and a Top5 is the best he can achieve in a different Grand Tour. These aren't results that justify a full-focus lineup in a Grand Tour. He was seventh at the 2022 Vuelta and fourth this year at the Giro. In my opinion, achieving more was not realistic, the Giro saw prime O'Connor and if he wants to ever finish on the podium of one he had to switch teams. I don't believe Jayco was the perfect destination, but it makes sense.

An Australian rider in an Australian team... A Jayco in need of a new Grand Tour leader and climber as Simon Yates was confirmed to depart already for some months... O'Connor's contract also finishing.... All the pieces of the puzzle fit. Will he continue to focus on Grand Tour results? Maybe, but like Simon Yate he could very well also focus on stage wins. If he does it at the Vuelta a España he will have won in all three GT's. Jayco notably does not put big focus on supporting it's GT contenders in the mountains so he will not have the pressure he did at Decathlon with the sole leadership.

All-in-all a transfer that is fully logic, but I don't expect any meaningful change for him.

But will this be the case with Guillaume Martin? I would personally love this to be the case. Lover of cycling, passionate climber and attackers... After 10 years in Cofidis Martin has moved away from the team where he gained his popularity and grew as a rider. He finished in or close to the Top10 in every Grand Tour because it is his passion, even though he cannot climb as well as the modern climbers. His pursuit for those minor Grand Tour results is always something I like to watch and his constantly aggressive posture in racing (whether that is in the mountains or the hills) has earned him good results before. But in Cofidis he was limited. The team is at the bottom of the World Tour and had a traditional structure. Not something that is bad, per say, but it makes sense that he wanted to move away and find out whether he can still improve as a rider at age 31.

After the Tour Martin revealed that he did not race with a bike computer. 'Pure panache', some will say... But the reason is much less pretty than that: "Our bikes weigh 7.7 kilograms, 1 kilo more than the UCI's permitted weight. I do not want to make my bike even heavier with a bike computer," he said. It could not be more obvious that he was very unhappy with the less good equipment he had in comparison to rivals and his decision to race without bike computer and power meter is because he didn't want to put more fuel into the fire (in this case bike weight disadvantage). He then came out to back track his statements, but anyone could tell from his words that this was to protect the team sponsors - the logical choice, but his initial words could not be taken back.

Martin will make the move to Groupama who are losing Lenny Martínez, after they also lost Thibaut Pinot. Martin may be the most similar rider to Pinot in terms of racing style and popularity in France (well, alongside Romain Bardet). A dying breed of rider, who still prioritizes passionate and attacking racing over the most efficient and logical racing. Sometimes it works, incredibly well. Seeing Guillaume in a blue jersey next season will be a shock to the system but perhaps that is what he needs to take the next step; whether that continues to be aiming for Top10's or taking bigger wins.

Teuns' transfer to Cofidis was one I did not expect, the only one in this list actually. An interesting one, but will it result in something? Teuns in my opinion was already in the perfect place in Israel, having a team that focuses on him and values him despite the age of 32 and level that is not as high as in his prime years (in my honest opinion). Sure, he will be a leader in Cofidis as well but with the exact same role as in Israel and not with more support. Salary wise I can not comment on this transfer, but I can't imagine Cofidis made a better offer. The French team is losing Guillaume Martin and Axel Zingle and I want to believe it will sign another leader as Teuns' move does not promise to compensate for the two departures.

Cofidis were quick to announce other transfers including Valentin Ferron and Sylvain Moniquet these days, they made early contact with a few riders. They are focused in change, but I'm afraid they would need a different new leader. Let's see, I may be proved wrong... Teuns was very strong at the Tour of Flanders this year, if they want to stay at World Tour level they will need the Belgian to be more consistent than what he's been showing these past few years.

A move that we knew of. BORA will make a huge impact this winter in the transfer market. Jan Tratnik, Laurence Pithie and Oier Lazkano are among those who are expected to be publicly confirmed to sign with the German team whilst even the likes of Tom Pidcock and Remco Evenepoel are under eye of the team that has had a huge budget increase. After signing Primoz Roglic, the team has in no way stopped and instead accelerated their rhythm of signings. The only one so far confirmed is that of Giulio Pellizzari. A fully logical move which benefits both sides.

Coming from Bardiani, the team that has seen Giulio Ciccone develop in a similar way a few years back, it was no surprise his jump to World Tour level. A very strong and promising climber, it was only a matter of time until his contract would run out and several top teams offered a salary many times above, and a chance to race at top level all year long, with a more modern structure. He will lose his leading position in the team, but that's hardly a problem for a 20-year old, specially one as talented as him. He's already achieved a lot in his young years, but most notably he finished second to Isaac Del Toro at the Tour de l'Avenir last year. Seeing how well the Mexican already raced this year, you can accurately already gauge his level.

But this isn't a secret. At the Giro d'Italia he was actually rather absent until the final week, where he finished second at Monte Pana but most impressively, sixth in the stage that twice climbed the Monte Grappa. The Italian climbed like never before and only Tadej Pogacar could overtake him up the final climb to the mythical Italian mountain. At 20, it was incredible how strongly he rode in the final week of a Grand Tour. But he has over 2023 and 2024 performed very well in week-long stage-races and his talent is undeniable. BORA had the money and secured one of the top climbers of the future, in a structure that seemingly manages it's many stars quite well. I think this signing has everything to work well.

Lastly we have got INEOS Grenadiers' signings. I have talked about the British team extensively above, but they have not only lost riders in the market, they brought in two. But, far from what they need to really get their level back. I have very mixed feelings over these moves. We have Bob Jungels, a strong and consistent performer in the late 2010's who hasn't matched the evolution of recent years. He could, at best, be a new Laurens de Plus; but if he does not reach his best level he will be a domestique like a few others the team has. A good rider, but I must directly point out that the team has the money to sign big riders and new leaders and these two do not fill any of those roles.

Langellotti is a another to-be domestique. However I "defend" him over the criticism I've seen of the team in social media over his signing, since it was rumoured a few weeks back. "Why are they signing this guy'" I've seen quite a lot... The reason is because INEOS have a big focus in Nice and are heavily based in this city and Monaco. Langellotti is the first rider to ever race at World Tour level from Monaco and likely is a familiar face for many of his new teammates. So it is an understandable transfer. Nevertheless, INEOS have to step their game and reel in bigger names, or they will sink further and further into the mid-level of the peloton.