ANALYSIS | Pogacar vs Van der Poel vs Van Aert: Who will be crowned king of Paris-Roubaix?

This Sunday, the cobbles return. The 122nd edition of Paris–Roubaix, cycling’s most brutal and iconic one-day race, promises another epic showdown in the Hell of the North. With Mathieu van der Poel chasing history, Tadej Pogacar making his highly anticipated debut, and Wout van Aert seeking his first cobbled monument, all eyes will be on Roubaix this weekend.

Paris–Roubaix is like no other event on the cycling calendar. Over its punishing 260km course, the world’s best riders will battle not just each other, but 53.7km of unforgiving pave, the legendary cobbled farm roads that define this Monument.

While the 2025 route closely resembles recent editions, it features a slight reduction in cobblestone distance, down by two kilometres from last year. But that’s not really much reason for the riders to breathe a sigh of relief is it!

Still, the pavé makes up more than 20% of the total course, and each sector has the potential to end a rider’s chances in a heartbeat.

The race begins in Compiègne and heads north toward Roubaix, with a total of 30 cobbled sectors. As ever, three five-star segments are set to define the race…

Trouée d’Arenberg – The notorious "Trench of Arenberg" arrives roughly 100km from the finish. Though far from the line, it regularly causes chaos, splitting the peloton through crashes, mechanicals, or sheer exhaustion. This year, there will be no artificial chicane at the entrance; instead, riders will take a slight detour past the Fosse Arenberg mining towers, before hitting the cobbles at full power.

Mons-en-Pévèle – A long, uneven stretch where fatigue begins to tell and teamwork can start to falter. It’s often the site of major selections and where contenders begin to show their hands.

Carrefour de l’Arbre – The final five-star sector, around 15km from the finish, is usually where the decisive moves are made. In 2023, it was here that Van der Poel attacked and rode away after Van Aert suffered a puncture. The Carrefour remains the last real chance to split the race before the run-in to Roubaix.

From there, the riders continue north, navigating the final cobbled challenges before entering the legendary Roubaix Velodrome. There, with one and a half laps to race under the roar of the crowd, the victor receives one of the most peculiar, and cherished, prizes in cycling: a cobblestone trophy and the customary golden shower plaque in the velodrome’s communal showers.

Although, if I was one of the riders, I wouldn’t want to see another cobblestone for a very long time!

Mathieu van der Poel enters Sunday’s race as the defending champion and arguably still the clear favourite. If he wins, it will mean he has won Paris–Roubaix three years in a row, a feat achieved by Octave Lapize (1909–1911) and Francesco Moser (1978–1980).

The Dutchman’s record at this race is extraordinary. In four starts, he has never finished outside the top 10:.

Van der Poel’s mastery over the cobbles is undeniable. He thrives in attritional conditions and possesses the rare blend of power, endurance, and instinct needed to tame Paris–Roubaix.

But he couldn’t tame a certain beast over the border in Belgium last weekend…

The presence of Tadej Pogacar adds a tantalising unknown to this year’s race. Just one week after his commanding victory at the Tour of Flanders, the three-time Tour de France champion takes on Paris–Roubaix for the very first time.

On paper, this is the one Monument that doesn’t suit him at all. The flat, punishing nature of the cobbles has traditionally favoured heavier, pure power riders, not climbers. But Pogacar is no ordinary GC contender. He’s won Flanders twice, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, and even animated the cobbled stages at the Tour de France in 2022. There is no one quite like him.

Roubaix’s challenge will be different from anything Pogacar has faced, but if anyone can defy the rulebook, it’s him.

For Wout van Aert, this season has already been filled with frustration. A strong fourth place at the Tour of Flanders was his first major result of 2025, and after a 2024 season derailed by injury, he’ll be hungry to show he still belongs at the sharp end of the Monuments.

Roubaix has brought the Belgian both promise and heartbreak in equal measure. He finished second in 2022 and was among the strongest in 2023 before a cruel puncture on the Carrefour de l’Arbre ended his hopes.

His form at Flanders, where he repeatedly responded to attacks from both Pogacar and Van der Poel, suggests he’s nearing top condition again at last.

While the spotlight shines brightest on the big three, the Paris–Roubaix field runs deep with contenders. Filippo Ganna, Mads Pedersen, Stefan Küng, and Jasper Stuyven are all proven classics riders who could take advantage of any tactical hesitation.

The weather forecast could also play a role. Though dry conditions are currently expected, the wind may shift across the weekend, potentially creating crosswinds and adding another layer of unpredictability to an already chaotic race.