"10 or 11 stages that suit him... That would spell the end of the Tour de France" - Could Tadej Pogacar be more dominant than ever?

Tadej Pogacar has proven an incredibly tough man to beat over the last couple of seasons. Alongside his overall Grand Tour wins at the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France last year, the Slovenian also picked up 12 stages en route. Could Pogacar's dominance now be set to step up even further and threaten 10 stage wins at the 2025 Tour de France?

"Last year could have played out differently. Don’t forget the serious crashes that took out those who were rightly considered the favourites — Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic," reflects the experienced French cycling expert Cyrille Guimard for Cyclism'Actu. "This year, things look more stable among the favourites. But who can genuinely challenge Pogacar’s dominance, now in its third year?"

"He’s got a much stronger, more experienced team now. Whereas Vingegaard’s squad seems slightly weaker," Guimard adds. "As for Evenepoel — I don’t feel he’s quite there, at least not to compete at this level. Unless he’s learned to deal with gradients over 6%, he won’t be in the running. Unless, of course, he’s trained specifically for that."

For some, the battle for the Maillot Jaune is a straight shoot out between Pogacar and Vingegaard, with Roglic and Evenepoel in the mix for the final spot on the podium. As Guimard notes however, cycling is rarely that simple. "What narrows the field are crashes and big setbacks. Beyond that, everyone knows everyone else’s wattage, including that of the domestiques. The route’s been dissected from every angle — 3D, GPS, drone footage. We even know where all the roundabouts are. So where could surprises come from? Maybe a lapse in concentration," he theorises.

"Then there’s the wind. As I always say: cycling is like sailing. It’s all about wind. Perhaps I’ll say this for the last time: wind is the one factor that can shake things up," Guimard continues. "Other than that, anything can always happen — but just on power alone? No, I don’t see any big upsets."

Which leads to the question of just how dominant Tadej Pogacar can be. "Last year, Pogacar won six stages. He’s done the same across two Grand Tours, including the 2024 Giro. This year, some say there are as many as 10 or 11 stages that suit him," previews Guimard. "Could we see a greedy, cannibalistic Pogacar? What would that mean for the race?"

Ultimately though, Guimard doesn't see Pogacar exploding the race in quite such a dramatic fashion as that. "As for the public’s reaction — let’s not go there, because it simply won’t happen," he concludes. "Today, it’s just not feasible. I may be wrong, but I don’t see how a single rider could win 10 stages. And honestly, that would spell the end of the Tour de France. If he looked like he might, people would ask him to ease up."