PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 16 - After Hautacam, can Tadej Pogacar get his Mont Ventoux revenge?

Stage 16 of the Tour de France is a completely flat day until the riders reach the one and final climb of the day: the mythical Mont Ventoux! We preview the first day of the final week where the riders will tackle one of the most difficult climbs of the race, and go up the Géant de Provence for the first time in four years - where Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar had a memorable battle.

The first day of the final week has a mostly flat profile and then a brutal finish at Mont Ventoux. The start in Montpellier and the entire stage may be sensitive to the wind so teams will always need to be very careful; however if this isn't the case on the day then it will be a case of holding all the firepower in until the base of the final ascent - and we would be able to expect massive power outputs in the final ascent then.

The Geant de Provence averages almost 9% over almost 16 kilometers, but this is already after a few false-flat kilometers. A mountain for the pure climbers, where the weather conditions often also make a key difference, this could be a tremendous bomb dropped on the GC fight.

Lots of heat early in the day, but on the final climb it will also be felt despite the altitude. However what we will really have is a nagging headwind in the final kilometers of the climb, and on this exposed road it should actually make a meaningful difference. I can't say if it will make the race conservative as this is a climb usually attacked from early on, but that possibility exists.

Visma - Many will ask what Visma can do on this day, but honestly there is no complex idea. Working towards a race of attrition doesn't work here and also doesn't seem to work against Pogacar. Racing tactically on a pan flat day with such a hard final climb also doesn't work. There's nothing realistically, so the team may try to get someone in the breakaway in the possibility that a breakaway may succeed, but on the final climb Jonas Vingegaard will always have to go head-to-head against Pogacar. On paper, I would say this climb suits Vingegaard better, but Pogacar is climbing better so realistically, best scenario is the two arriving together. But I believe he should try to attack before the exposed part of the climb.

Tadej Pogacar - Pogacar also doesn't have to do too much on this day tactically speaking, and if he has the legs, he can settle with following Vingegaard up the final climb - and potentially then attacking in the final kilometers to try and increase the advantage some more. Pogacar will be the man to beat in any scenario, and UAE can easily control this day for a stage win if they want. The Slovenian would likely love a victory in yellow in one of the race's most iconic climbs.

GC Fight - Don't expect attacks, that will not be the case. And most riders are happy with their positions, so you won't see any big attacks unless someone is in a very special day - specially after a rest day where at times, some riders don't handle the return to racing well. Florian Lipowitz is in a bit of a discovery journey this deep into the race and a podium is already perfect so he has no reason to attack; Primoz Roglic may help the German keeping things together and I expect Primoz Roglic to do a good stage with it being a single-climb day; Oscar Onley being in fourth is already incredible thus far and the same can be said of Kévin Vauquelin's fifth place... Felix Gall, currently seven and 'best of the humans' in Superbagnères may be the man who has the team and means to impact the race here.

Breakaway - It fully depends on who will be there. With a flat start, the climbers are in no way favoured, but we can still expect a big breakaway battle - with the climbers being supported by some rouleurs/sprinters from their team to help them make it. It's also a one-climb stage, meaning we may see some different faces than those we've seen in the Pyrenees come to the front. I think Lenny Martínez in particular will be excited for that, but it will be a big task to be able to make it to the front.

Thymen Arensman is another obvious name after his Superbagnères masterpiece. Ben O'Connor, Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, Cristián Rodríguez, Enric Mas, Einer Rubio, Sergio Higuita, Warren Barguil, Aleksandr Vlasov, Alexey Lutsenko, Harold Tejada, Michael Storer, Valentin Paret-Peintre and Michael Woods are all big names to take into consideration. This is the Tour de France and you need to be extremely good to take a win; outside these very few can even have hopes of succeeding.

*** Tadej Pogacar, Lenny Martínez
** Jonas Vingegaard, Thymen Arensman, Michael Woods, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Florian Lipowitz, Felix Gall, Primoz Roglic, Oscar Onley, Tobias Johannessen, Sepp Kuss, Einer Rubio, Warren Barguil, Harold Tejada, Valentin Paret-Peintre

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Heart says breakaway, head says peloton finish with Pogacar winning another one.