PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 16 - After Hautacam, can Tadej Pogacar get his Mont Ventoux revenge?
CyclingTuesday, 22 July 2025 at 14:11
Stage 16 of the Tour de France is a completely flat day until the riders reach the one and final climb of the day: the mythical Mont Ventoux! We preview the first day of the final week where the riders will tackle one of the most difficult climbs of the race, and go up the Géant de Provence for the first time in four years - where Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar had a memorable battle.
The first day of the final week has a mostly flat profile and then a brutal finish at Mont Ventoux. The start in Montpellier and the entire stage may be sensitive to the wind so teams will always need to be very careful; however if this isn't the case on the day then it will be a case of holding all the firepower in until the base of the final ascent - and we would be able to expect massive power outputs in the final ascent then.
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Stage 16: Montpellier - Mont Ventoux, 171.2 kilometers
The Geant de Provence averages almost 9% over almost 16 kilometers, but this is already after a few false-flat kilometers. A mountain for the pure climbers, where the weather conditions often also make a key difference, this could be a tremendous bomb dropped on the GC fight.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2025 stage 16
Lots of heat early in the day, but on the final climb it will also be felt despite the altitude. However what we will really have is a nagging headwind in the final kilometers of the climb, and on this exposed road it should actually make a meaningful difference. I can't say if it will make the race conservative as this is a climb usually attacked from early on, but that possibility exists.
The Favourites
Visma - Many will ask what Visma can do on this day, but honestly there is no complex idea. Working towards a race of attrition doesn't work here and also doesn't seem to work against Pogacar. Racing tactically on a pan flat day with such a hard final climb also doesn't work. There's nothing realistically, so the team may try to get someone in the breakaway in the possibility that a breakaway may succeed, but on the final climb Jonas Vingegaard will always have to go head-to-head against Pogacar. On paper, I would say this climb suits Vingegaard better, but Pogacar is climbing better so realistically, best scenario is the two arriving together. But I believe he should try to attack before the exposed part of the climb.
Tadej Pogacar - Pogacar also doesn't have to do too much on this day tactically speaking, and if he has the legs, he can settle with following Vingegaard up the final climb - and potentially then attacking in the final kilometers to try and increase the advantage some more. Pogacar will be the man to beat in any scenario, and UAE can easily control this day for a stage win if they want. The Slovenian would likely love a victory in yellow in one of the race's most iconic climbs.
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GC Fight - Don't expect attacks, that will not be the case. And most riders are happy with their positions, so you won't see any big attacks unless someone is in a very special day - specially after a rest day where at times, some riders don't handle the return to racing well. Florian Lipowitz is in a bit of a discovery journey this deep into the race and a podium is already perfect so he has no reason to attack; Primoz Roglic may help the German keeping things together and I expect Primoz Roglic to do a good stage with it being a single-climb day; Oscar Onley being in fourth is already incredible thus far and the same can be said of Kévin Vauquelin's fifth place... Felix Gall, currently seven and 'best of the humans' in Superbagnères may be the man who has the team and means to impact the race here.
Breakaway - It fully depends on who will be there. With a flat start, the climbers are in no way favoured, but we can still expect a big breakaway battle - with the climbers being supported by some rouleurs/sprinters from their team to help them make it. It's also a one-climb stage, meaning we may see some different faces than those we've seen in the Pyrenees come to the front. I think Lenny Martínez in particular will be excited for that, but it will be a big task to be able to make it to the front.
Thymen Arensman is another obvious name after his Superbagnères masterpiece. Ben O'Connor, Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, Cristián Rodríguez, Enric Mas, Einer Rubio, Sergio Higuita, Warren Barguil, Aleksandr Vlasov, Alexey Lutsenko, Harold Tejada, Michael Storer, Valentin Paret-Peintre and Michael Woods are all big names to take into consideration. This is the Tour de France and you need to be extremely good to take a win; outside these very few can even have hopes of succeeding.
Prediction Tour de France 2025 stage 16:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Lenny Martínez
** Jonas Vingegaard, Thymen Arensman, Michael Woods, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Florian Lipowitz, Felix Gall, Primoz Roglic, Oscar Onley, Tobias Johannessen, Sepp Kuss, Einer Rubio, Warren Barguil, Harold Tejada, Valentin Paret-Peintre
** Jonas Vingegaard, Thymen Arensman, Michael Woods, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Florian Lipowitz, Felix Gall, Primoz Roglic, Oscar Onley, Tobias Johannessen, Sepp Kuss, Einer Rubio, Warren Barguil, Harold Tejada, Valentin Paret-Peintre
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
How: Heart says breakaway, head says peloton finish with Pogacar winning another one.
Original: Rúben Silva
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- RE will be the same rider at RedBull, cept he'll be there. He's got psychological issues with Jonas V & Tadej P. Like WvA did with M vd Poel, whenever they raced together, usually against', it'd go MvdP's way. RE is a 1 dayer short stage race rider not a GT contender, unless the Dr is better at RedBull...
leedorney25-07-2025 - Holy crap! That was ridiculous.AndrewK25-07-2025
- It was his own actions, the video shows clearly. Its called cheating, plain and simple, there are no excuses.abstractengineer25-07-2025
- I hope not. The slovenian way is not normal at all, and very boring. I hope instead wada find out.MauroG25-07-2025
- he needs whatever solution pogacar found between 2023 and 2024, when he came back UNBEATABLE by van der poel in classics like flanders AND unbeatable in the grand tours. in 2023 cycling looked like it was in the midst of an absolute Golden Age of high level competitiveness, but by just the nest season pogacar got so much better that the competition was all but over. what was left was van der poel in races like roubaix and MSR. as i’ve said, i think next year pog will up his level again somehow and close the door on mathieu ever winning those races again.OCexile25-07-2025
- No. I think he was in the limit from pulling the entire climb like Jonas on VentouxGuavaking25-07-2025
- Remco and Florian would be as good as it gets for co-leadership.
Llywelynglyndwr25-07-2025 - He’s been a damp squib since day one of the tour.. I’m going to attack but he’s never really put Pogi under pressure at any point. The tour has been utterly brutal, the first ten days were intense the mountains harsh! Yesterday and today were as brutal as I can remember the Alps in many yearsslappers6625-07-2025
- My bad mobk, didn't see that
D3kst3r25-07-2025 - Does anyone doubt that Pogacar could have won this stage if Arensman wasn't a friend? He comfortably pulled at the front fast enough that Onley was dropped, the gap to Arensman was made smaller, and Vingegaard wasn't able to attack until the last few meters while Pogi freewheeled over the line.velodan25-07-2025
There is almost no way Pogacar does not win this stage. If this was a couple of years back when Vingegaard might have had an advantage on stages with multiple high altitude climbs we would have said this stage is a gift to Pogacar with only one big climb. Even more so now where he has no such weaknesses anymore. The best climber with a stage tailor-made for him. And he'll want to win it too. No gifts to the breakaway on this one.
Mont Ventoux 🙃🙃🙃🙂🙂🙂 I can't wait!
is isn’t really an actual QUESTION, is it?
clearly pogačar can do essentially anything he wants, whenever he wants, with the exception this year of roubaix and san remo. will anyone be surprised, though, when he comes back next year and completely smokes mvdp in those two races, as well? in spite of having a build that’s not suited for roubaix, he almost won there on debut. many think he would have were it not for the flat tire. a couple years ago he lost to mathieu at flanders and then came back with a whole new level the next year that will keep van der poel from every winning that race — which he completely dominated — ever again, if that’s what pog chooses. seems very probable he will just up his level again next season and become invincible at msr and roubaix as well. given that he never fatigues, it’s completely possible for there to be a season when he wins every classic AND whichever grand tours he chooses to, maybe even all of them. (i’m fairly confident he WILL win all 3 grand tours in a single season, and i think the odds are pretty decent he’ll win all the classics one year, too. weather or not he chooses to try to do both of these in the same season is harder to guess. it’ll be extremely exciting to see from year to year which races and tours he decides to win.) the world’s is trickier, since the course directors could choose a pan flat parcours one year, here and there, to give the sprinters their bite at the apple (though interest in showcasing the skills of pure sprinters seems to be fading fast). absent those years (should they occur) if health and interest allows, he should be world champion every year as well. two years from now the title of an article here might be CAN POGAČAR WIN WHATEVER HE FEELS LIKE?, and the answer will be essentially the same as it is to this one.
It’s interesting that some writers always try to sneak the word revenge into articles (almost always titles) whereas riders practically NEVER use or show the desire for it. They are competitive by nature, that is a very different thing to being revengeful. I don’t think any rider starts having feelings of animosity towards another who beat him fairly, at most it’s an incentive to get better and try again. Anyone who tries to improve out of a need for revenge is highly likely to fail and become incredibly unpopular, even if it’s getting revenge on themselves or life, you pay a very heavy price in the end, someone we shouldn’t speak of is the perfect example.