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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 1 - Will Tadej Pogacar test Jonas Vingegaard? Will Remco Evenepoel go crazy in Italian hills? Or can Wout van Aert take first yellow jersey?
CyclingSaturday, 29 June 2024 at 14:01
The 2024 Tour de France starts this Saturday in Florence! It is a hilly day with plenty climbing to open things up where a lot of action is expected. There are plenty climbs where rivals may test Jonas Vingegaard; whilst riders such as Remco Evenepoel, a few sprinters and classics specialists can be very dangerous. We preview stage 1.
The Tour de France starts in Florence this year. In the heart of Italy, the race organizers have cooked up an opening stage with 3700 meters of climbing. This includes six categorized climbs, a very hilly finale before the flat run-in to Rimini where the first yellow jersey will be attributed. The first 30 kilometers are flat, but afterwards starts the real Tour - quite early this time around.
Stage 1: Florence - Rimini, 206 kilometers
12.6 kilometers at 5.4% is the first climb of the race, a second category ascent. Two third category climbs follow with 2.5Km at 6.7% and 10.4Km at 4.6%. These ascents will be a warm-up however for a day of racing that can cause some damage by the end. Remember that the distance is also of 206 kilometers on the day, which makes it more plausible for differences to be made.
The Côte de Barbotto opens up action for the stage finale. It's 5.9 kilometers at 7.5%, perhaps the toughest ascent of the day which summits with 70 kilometers to go. It's a constant up and down throughout the following hour of race and here things can open up quite a bit.
Côte de San Leo is the next one, 4.8 kilometers at 7.6% with a section well above 10%... It ends with 49 kilometers to go and has a descent right after which leads directly to the third one of the day. 4.3 kilometers at 6.7% which ends with 39 kilometers to go.
The final climb then will be the Côte de San Marino, a technical ascent with many switchbacks, averaging 4.7% for over 7 kilometers. It is the final climb of the day and although it's not overly hard it definitely provides another opportunity for attacks. The riders the descend back down from the micronation and towards the Adriatic city of Rimini.
The final 15 kilometers will be flat and provide an opportunity to organize. A lot can happen in these kilometers, it will depend a lot on how the riders tackle the climbs. A large bunch sprint will not happen but a small one may; and in the final kilometers there is definitely a technical aspect which also favours attackers.
Just inside the final 1.5 kilometers there are three 90-degree corners and the final straight, right by the sea, is pan-flat and 800 meters long.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 1
28 degrees, the heat will make it an even more difficult day, certainly bigger chances of attacks and differences to be made. There will be some eastern wind, which comes as a cross-headwind in the run-up to Rimini - which is bad for those looking to attack.
The Favourites
GC Fight - For me this is the big question. What would I do in UAE's shoes? Attack this day as hard as possible. We do not know Jonas Vingegaard's form, and Visma have had setbacks. The climbs are not too hard on the day but this makes it possible to actually attack and surprise. In long constant climbs attacks come expected. On a day like this, not as much. UAE have the numbers and they have to use them to put rivals under pressure as early as possible. Last year Tadej Pogacar tried to enter breakaway on a few hilly days so there is no fear of doing such thing here. UAE have Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates and João Almeida and a squad with other strong climbers so they should try to make the difference already.
Visma, the plan must be to be on the defensive. Matteo Jorgenson stays with Vingegaard unless there's a huge explosion, this will make it less appetizing to attack, and can keep the race together both uphill and on the flat. Wout van Aert may go for a sprint if the race isn't too hard. BORA - hansgrohe have Aleksandr Vlasov with free role who may attack, I don't expect the same from Primoz Roglic or Jai Hindley who still had to improve his form a lot.
Remco Evenepoel... This is his kind of day. A first yellow jersey is definitely on the table. He can sprint, but it's on roads like this where he can attack from distance and arrive solo at the finish - he can even do it just on the flat roads honestly. Not a Tour victory candidate in my opinion, but certainly one for days like this. INEOS also have quite a few cards but I think it's hard to make it work on a day like this. Tom Pidcock can surely attack, both uphill or downhill, and also contest for a sprint.
What about a late attack going for the win? On the climbs I do believe UAE and riders like Evenepoel will give it a shot and cover attacks. But on the final flat roads this will be harder and non-GC riders may have more freedom and more chances of succeeding. You have riders like Ben Healy, Matej Mohoric, Oier Lazkano and Alberto Bettiol who are superb by themselves on flat roads. Derek Gee may also be very dangerous as I don't think GC riders will consider him one, but after what he did at the Criterium du Dauphiné he has certainly announced himself as a rider who can go for the yellow jersey.
You'vve got a few riders such as Kévin Vauquelin, Stephen Williams, Alexey Lutsenko, Giulio Ciccone, Romain Bardet, Oscar Onley Pello, Bilbao and Santiago Buitrago who may also go on the attack but it's in the climbs that they can play their cards the best... Whilst we can't discard others such as Paul Lapeira, Soren Kragh Andersen, Clément Champoussin, Romain Grégoire and Toms Skujins.
And in a sprint... Well Pogacar and Evenepoel are riders that can win in a sprint - the Slovenian mainly, at this point there's no separation between climbers and sprinters. But if the race isn't too hard definitely a few fast men can survive. I don't believe Mathieu van der Poel can survive as they will be longer efforts, but both he and Arnaud De Lie will be interesting riders to keep an eye on such a day.
Wout van Aert is definitely a contender for the first yellow jersey but his form is rather unknown and he will need to be good to survive the climbs. However if Visma are put under pressure to control all attacks they may not be able to, other teams have to do this work too as many will shoot their shot. Mads Pedersen and Michael Matthews are certainly two candidates for a sprint on such a day; whilst the likes of Axel Zingle, Alex Aranburu, Marijn van den Berg, Maxim van Gils and Magnus Cort Nielsen are among fast men who can climb quite well.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 1:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel
** Tom Pidcock, Alberto Bettiol, Michael Matthews, Wout van Aert
* Juan Ayuso, Aleksandr Vlasov, Ben Healy, Matej Mohoric, Derek Gee, Oier Lazkano, Mads Pedersen, Alex Aranburu, Axel Zingle, Maxim van Gils, Magnus Cort Nielsen
Pick: Michael Matthews
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