DISCUSSION Tour de France Stage 16 | Is Pogacar close to cracking? Is the top 3 already locked in?

The third week of the Tour de France started the same way as the second week ended: full of attacks, fights, and lots of excitement. Stage 16 took us to Montpellier, the city that hosted today’s departure, and the peloton rode all the way to the mythical Mont Ventoux. It was a simple stage during the first 130 km, but the ending was brutal. 15.6 km at 8.7% during a 1-hour effort. With Tadej Pogacar holding a comfortable lead over Jonas Vingegaard, it was interesting to see what approach Team Visma would take for today’s stage.

Finally, both UAE and Visma introduced several riders in a big breakaway consisting of 35 riders in total. The group was able to quickly build a big gap over the peloton, which would give them peace of mind to face the last climb with some margin of safety.

Enric Mas, Ben Healy, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Santiago Buitrago and Ilan van Wilder were the cyclists who went the furthest. Paret-Peintre, was finally the man who took home the victory, the first one for a French rider in this year’s edition of the Tour de France.

The GC candidates delivered us another memorable spectacle. Pogacar and Vingegaard were constantly attacking, and this time it was the Dane who was most active. He launched up to 4 attacks against Pogacar, but the world champion resisted all of them. Finally, no significant differences were created among them.

Once the stage finished, we asked some of our writers to share their thoughts and main takeaways about what happened today.

Most of the stage was just pan-flat so there wasn't much to analyze. I didn't believe there could be much tactical play on such a day with such a difficult final climb, but Visma did have two men out front and then made good use of them after Jonas Vingegaard's attack. No time gain (2-second loss even), but it will have been a positive outcome for the Dane.

You see, the only way Vingegaard will win the race is if Pogacar cracks, not if he has a slighr bad day and loses a bit of time. In that sense, today has looked a little more that this scenario could happen then in the Pyrenees. Vingegaard looked very strong, at the same level as the yellow jersey, and Visma looked much stronger than UAE (both in the peloton and with it's breakaway riders, which in UAE's case, ended up serving no purpose).

We saw the best Vingegaard and a Pogacar that wasn't able to distance him. The closing of the gap means that Vingegaard could potentially be a bit stronger in the final two colossal mountain stages and will be motivated to try - and we know he will do it from distance, not just the final climbs.

Today’s ascent of Mont Ventoux began as a shattered symphony of spent and saved energy, with three breakaway groups—Alaphilippe, Healy, and Vingegaard—drifting ever closer toward a harmonious crescendo. But instead of unity, it all collapsed into dissonance, orchestrated by a Soudal Quick-Step counterattack. Out of nowhere, Ilan Van Wilder surged back in the final kilometre, silencing the tit-for-tat exchanges between Ben Healy and Valentin Paret-Peintre.

His Belgian sacrifice laid the groundwork for Paret-Peintre, who calmly latched onto Healy’s wheel and finished the job at the summit—brilliantly so. Healy paid the price for his earlier efforts, especially his relentless chase to close down Enric Mas. And Van Wilder’s timely reappearance also played a decisive role in preventing Vingegaard and Pogacar from overtaking the front group.

From nearly five minutes down at the base, the duo came heartbreakingly close with every passing metre—but not close enough. Further up the climb, another quiet battle was unfolding. Lipowitz remained glued to Onley’s wheel—a tactical move that kept Roglic within reach. It paid off. In the end, both Lipowitz and Roglic managed to drop Onley.

The podium is now a loud and clear possibility for the German rider—unless Roglic has other ideas, as he seems to be improving with every passing day. Whatever happens, Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe might already be popping corks. After a stage like this, it’ll surely be a Châteauneuf-du-Pape. The better Mont Ventoux stuff.

Today’s stage was a true throwback to the classic Tour de France formula. A long, flat approach set the tone, leading into a brutal single climb, the legendary Mont Ventoux. It was a proper one-mountain stage, the kind that puts everything on the table over a 1-hour all-out ascent.

What was perhaps missing to make the day even more epic was the wind. Today, the conditions were relatively calm, but that didn’t take away from the drama and spectacle we witnessed.

The stage had everything: early tension, long-range moves, and tactical battles. We are in the third week of the Tour, and the differences between riders in terms of physical condition are now becoming more evident. A lot of riders tried to be protagonists in today’s breakaway, but only a few of them have the legs for it.

Ben Healy and Valentin Paret-Peintre showed today that they belong to that group. The Irishman was pursuing his second stage win in this Tour, and the Frenchman wanted to deliver his fans the first victory for a French rider in this edition of the race.

As soon as they caught Enric Mas, it became clear that one of them would take the victory. Paret-Peintre ended up winning, but Ben Healy made a mistake when he started sprinting too far away from the finish line. Valentin made his move in a calculated way, which granted him the win.

Enric Mas was a positive surprise for me. The Spaniard had been struggling in the past stages, not showing perfect form. Once his GC dreams were shattered, he began searching for breakaway wins, and today, he was quite close to winning his first stage since 2022.

He ended in 7th, just behind Pogacar and Vingegaard. The two superstars delivered an exciting head-to-head battle. From the tactical point of view, it was interesting to see how Visma used its riders in the breakaway. Although they were not the X factor, Tiesj Benoot and Victor Campenaerts played an important role for Jonas in the ascent. They both helped him launch two attacks, but the Slovenian was simply strong enough to defend himself against Vingegaard’s aggression.

For the first time in this Tour, Vingegaard was the more attacking rider out of the two. It is true that Tadej never seemed to be in difficulties, but it is also true that Jonas responded very well to the only attack that Pogacar proposed. The Dane knows that getting the yellow jersey is a utopian dream, but still, he never gives up and will try until Paris. The only chance he has of winning is if Pogacar cracks. This also looks very unlikely to happen, but it is the only hope Jonas can hold to.

Finally, the fight for the third position on the podium seems to be settled. Florian Lipowitz didn’t have his best day, but he is already more than 2 minutes ahead of Oscar Onley. Primoz Roglic is also finishing the Tour way better than he started it, and he will likely finish in 4th place if he maintains the good form he is showing.