PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 8 - Will Matteo Jorgenson survive the final day to Nice?

Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 8.

The final day of race. Paris-Nice always delivers in it's final Sunday, we've got 120 kilometers on the menu only but six climbs, many technical descents, many hairpins and one final steep climb where everything can be decided. This time around an easier start, with a few added kilometers but only one climb instead of a fast combo of three before Peille.

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Stage 8: Nice - Nice, 120.7 kilometers

This will be the Col de la Porte, 7 kilometers at 6.9%, ending with 70 kilometers to go and featuring a very technical descent. It will quickly lead up to the Côte de Peille which is 6.5 kilometers at 6.9%, full of hairpins, a climb where winning attacks have happened in the past. This summits with 41 kilometers to go.

However this time around there are still two tough ascents to go. The riders have an intermediate sprint at the Col d'Èze which is 1.6 kilometers at over 9%, this summits with 25 kilometers to go. Attacks certainly can happen here, because the following fast descent leads directly into the final climb of the day.

This is the Col des Quatre Chemins - part of the Col d'Éze. It is 3.6 kilometers at 8.8%, but the final half is quite steeper. The ramps go up to 18%, brutal and enough to create differences. The race can end atop this ascent, it summits with 9 kilometers to go and from there on it's almost downhill all the way to the finish line at the Promenade des Anglais.

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The Weather

Map Paris-Nice 2025 stage 8

The rain will stop, finally! In fact the riders will actually see the sun, giving good grace to the nickname 'Race to the Sun'. But whereas the sun and warmth will come, so will the wind on the final day of racing. A very strong northwestern wind by the sea means the riders will have a tailwind up Peille and Quatre Chemins. It must be said these climbs are full of switchbacks, but generally there will be a tailwind up them.

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The Favourites

Yellow jersey battle - Matteo Jorgenson has been flawless this week, and last year he thrived in this stage. It will be hard for him to be beaten, and honestly he only has to focus on one rider: Florian Lipowitz. Without Jonas Vingegaard, Visma do not have the best support anymore, and he may even be isolated early on if the race is attacked, but he only has to follow the German who is 37 seconds away realistically.

Lipowitz, in return, has to attack. To win, he would mainly need to move in Peille, but a second place is already a great result for him which he will not want to sacrifice. On the final climb it'll be hard to make the necessary difference. Yes, Jorgenson will have to pay attention to Thymen Arensman too, but the Dutchman hasn't had a similar climbing level this week and the 1:20 minute gap is relatively comfortable. I expect INEOS to try and use Magnus Sheffield and Tobias Foss to attack but the gap is big enough that Jorgenson can gamble.

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João Almeida is likely to attack the Côte de Peille if he has the legs, Brandon McNulty (currently 7th) around the same, as the duo aren't in the positions they hope for, and with some luck Almeida may be able to assault the podium still. But with 2:40 and 3:05 to Jorgenson, this is more of a possible fight for podium or stage win, not overall victory. Clément Champoussin and Pablo Castrillo are riders to consider for a stage win even in a direct battle after what they showed today. Felix Gall and Lenny Martínez, the strongest climbers today, can be said the same, although they will also have full freedom to get into a breakaway if they can.

The breakaway aspect is the other one in this stage, as the victory could well fall to a rider in this situation. And you certainly can have GC outsiders such as Ilan van Wilder, Aurélien Paret-Peintre or Max Schachmann taking advantage of this situation. Mads Pedersen, in unbelievable climbing form and benefiting from the bad weather, can absolutely win a stage like this after what he's been showing. Mauro Schmid, Georg Steinhauser and Iván Romeo looked strong today in the right move, and they'll have a chance once again tomorrow to succeed.

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Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 8:

*** Ilan van Wilder, Felix Gall, Lenny Martínez
** Matteo Jorgenson, Florian Lipowitz, Clément Champoussin, Mads Pedersen, Mauro Schmid
* Thymen Arensman, Magnus Sheffield, João Almeida, Brandon McNulty, Pablo Castrillo, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Georg Steinhauser, Iván Romeo

Pick: Felix Gall

How: Breakaway win

Original: Rúben Silva

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