PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 8 - Will Matteo Jorgenson survive the final day to Nice?
Cycling
Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 8.
The final day of race. Paris-Nice always delivers in it's final Sunday, we've got 120 kilometers on the menu only but six climbs, many technical descents, many hairpins and one final steep climb where everything can be decided. This time around an easier start, with a few added kilometers but only one climb instead of a fast combo of three before Peille.
This will be the Col de la Porte, 7 kilometers at 6.9%, ending with 70 kilometers to go and featuring a very technical descent. It will quickly lead up to the Côte de Peille which is 6.5 kilometers at 6.9%, full of hairpins, a climb where winning attacks have happened in the past. This summits with 41 kilometers to go.
However this time around there are still two tough ascents to go. The riders have an intermediate sprint at the Col d'Èze which is 1.6 kilometers at over 9%, this summits with 25 kilometers to go. Attacks certainly can happen here, because the following fast descent leads directly into the final climb of the day.
This is the Col des Quatre Chemins - part of the Col d'Éze. It is 3.6 kilometers at 8.8%, but the final half is quite steeper. The ramps go up to 18%, brutal and enough to create differences. The race can end atop this ascent, it summits with 9 kilometers to go and from there on it's almost downhill all the way to the finish line at the Promenade des Anglais.
The Weather
The rain will stop, finally! In fact the riders will actually see the sun, giving good grace to the nickname 'Race to the Sun'. But whereas the sun and warmth will come, so will the wind on the final day of racing. A very strong northwestern wind by the sea means the riders will have a tailwind up Peille and Quatre Chemins. It must be said these climbs are full of switchbacks, but generally there will be a tailwind up them.
The Favourites
Yellow jersey battle - Matteo Jorgenson has been flawless this week, and last year he thrived in this stage. It will be hard for him to be beaten, and honestly he only has to focus on one rider: Florian Lipowitz. Without Jonas Vingegaard, Visma do not have the best support anymore, and he may even be isolated early on if the race is attacked, but he only has to follow the German who is 37 seconds away realistically.
Lipowitz, in return, has to attack. To win, he would mainly need to move in Peille, but a second place is already a great result for him which he will not want to sacrifice. On the final climb it'll be hard to make the necessary difference. Yes, Jorgenson will have to pay attention to Thymen Arensman too, but the Dutchman hasn't had a similar climbing level this week and the 1:20 minute gap is relatively comfortable. I expect INEOS to try and use Magnus Sheffield and Tobias Foss to attack but the gap is big enough that Jorgenson can gamble.
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João Almeida is likely to attack the Côte de Peille if he has the legs, Brandon McNulty (currently 7th) around the same, as the duo aren't in the positions they hope for, and with some luck Almeida may be able to assault the podium still. But with 2:40 and 3:05 to Jorgenson, this is more of a possible fight for podium or stage win, not overall victory. Clément Champoussin and Pablo Castrillo are riders to consider for a stage win even in a direct battle after what they showed today. Felix Gall and Lenny Martínez, the strongest climbers today, can be said the same, although they will also have full freedom to get into a breakaway if they can.
The breakaway aspect is the other one in this stage, as the victory could well fall to a rider in this situation. And you certainly can have GC outsiders such as Ilan van Wilder, Aurélien Paret-Peintre or Max Schachmann taking advantage of this situation. Mads Pedersen, in unbelievable climbing form and benefiting from the bad weather, can absolutely win a stage like this after what he's been showing. Mauro Schmid, Georg Steinhauser and Iván Romeo looked strong today in the right move, and they'll have a chance once again tomorrow to succeed.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 8:
*** Ilan van Wilder, Felix Gall, Lenny Martínez
** Matteo Jorgenson, Florian Lipowitz, Clément Champoussin, Mads Pedersen, Mauro Schmid
* Thymen Arensman, Magnus Sheffield, João Almeida, Brandon McNulty, Pablo Castrillo, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Georg Steinhauser, Iván Romeo
Pick: Felix Gall
How: Breakaway win
Original: Rúben Silva
☀ Voici le parcours de #ParisNice 2025 !
— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2024
☀Here is the route of #ParisNice 2025! pic.twitter.com/ynMCs4sVut
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- Good for him but not exactly the most competitive field, though better than what Froome would try ;-) Let’s wait and see if he can keep things up over time.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- Huh? So when the men’s is boring and the women’s isn’t should they transfer money or how do you suggest to do things. Last I heard, it’s a bunch of mostly ageing chubby men who set the criteria for women’s races (and in most sports it’s still rather like how religions are run). Don’t think the girls are particularly against doing the same races as the men. Anyway, there’s a huge unjustified gap between 11% of and a difference of 11%. Doubt this happens at the Olympics.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- C’mon, nobody has ever spoken of Ganna in the same breath as those two until a few months ago and he showed how close a thing it can be when he’s on form, nobody can know in advance what form Remco will have, his Olympic form would cause even Tadej problems, and Wout, well, we’ll just have to wait and see but you can’t really write him off in advance.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- Quite true but I’d not rule MVDP out yet, am pretty sure he will still improve in climbing and maybe not every rival will do every edition so stars may still align. Ironically, all three and even Wout, would probably (at least 2 definitely) win all 5 if it wasn’t for the others.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- MSR really did open the can of worms.... A personal view, of the three noted Tadej is most likely to get the set he has the skill, the talent and sheer bloody-mindedness to win everywhere. Yes the it'll all have to come right to pick up Roubaix and MSR but he's already proved himself on all terrain. I'd rate Remco's chances of getting the 5 fractionally higher than MVDP, he can climb so LBL/Lombardia as less of a problem but he's yet to prove himself on the other races and we don't know how well and how quick he'll get back to where he was after injury, this has been a long lay off. MVDP, I'd love to see him do it but I think Lombardia is too much of a stretch, the organisers will not create an "easier" route just to pull him in. I've said on other articles that I fear for Wout, I don't know that he is at the same level as MVDP and Tadej anymore, they have cranked the level up while Wout has been recovering from last years debacle. Will it happen who knows but it's going to be incredible to watch over the next couple of years!slappers6625-03-2025
- I think that when Caleb unleashed his sprint, he unleashed a couple of years of built up frustration as well.
santiagobenites25-03-2025 - The guy has changed teams so often they are not sure what one is currently his.Cyclingsbestfan25-03-2025
- Do you honestly not have a picture of Ewan in his correct team kit?JoBro25-03-2025
- that sounds right. at Roubaix, any of the strong riders who has better luck than the other elites can win. not the case at flanders, where THE strongest almost always wins. (which means rvv will be either tadej or mathieu.)OCexile25-03-2025
- Yes try riding same distances as themen as courses as hard. No point wanting same money if you are not putting the miles and same work in.paultryan200225-03-2025