Stage 7: Nice - Madone d'Utelle, 103.5 kilometers
A hilly start to the day where a strong breakaway can go up the road surely, but most of the 103-kilometer stage is relatively flat. All a build up for the final ascent where the stage - and possibly overall classification - will be largely decided.
The climb to Madone d'Utelle is one that is known inthe peloton, it's not the first time Paris-Nice uses it. A summit far from high altitude, it will be all about the legs and not the weater. 15.1 kilometers at 5.7%, a constant climb that is not very steep and not very prone to attacks.
However in a short explosive day we can expect massive power outputs up it, and it can be a very interesting arrival with both power and tactics coming into play meaningfully.
Madone d'Utelle: 15.1Km; 5.7%
The Weather
Map Paris-Nice 2024 stage 7
Some meaningful wind from the east. Generally, on the map it could be interpreted as a crosswind on the map but in reality it's an ascent that will mostly have crosswinds up all of it, constantly changing due to the hairpins.
The Favourites
Brandon McNulty - A lot on the table. McNulty does not like the pressure, he admitted only days ago and when he moved to the yellow jersey after the TTT he said João Almeida is the leader. Well the Portuguese has now lost a lot of time and McNulty is the sole leader of the team and the race. It will be a mental test. Which McNulty will we have though? In Mallorca and Valenciana he was flying and beating climbers that he's facing here; at the UAE Tour he flew in the TT and then completely collapsed on the climbs... So far he's doing good here, but it is not because of his climbing skills that he's in the lead. In my opinion it's actually a stage and final climb that suit him quite well, he can legitimately keep this jersey for another day but he's not the main favourite to win the race. Supporting him is Almeida who mostly rides at the back and Jay Vine who even in this race has already had days at the top and in the bottom. So it's a complete wildcard UAE.
Matteo Jorgenson - For me, now the main favourite to win the race. Many people talked about Jan Tratnik being an absolute surprise at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, he was not... And Jorgenson is in the exact same situation. It will not be a surprise to see him win the GC here, he's in great form and last year absolutely powered through the final stages of this exact race. He looks stronger than McNulty, and from behind he has 31 seconds on Mattias Skjelmose and 40 on Remco Evenepoel whom I consider his main rivals. He can afford to be relatively conservative as the final stage will suit him even better, but I think that under normal conditions the American should take over the yellow jersey and I also expect him to match some of the best.
Luke Plapp - Third in the GC now, Plapp is not racing for the win. The team clearly took the pressure off him, and the way he's raced the past two days are clear that he's not trying to keep yellow by all means. He was conservative today, losing the yellow jersey but staying on the podium. He won't attack, a powerhouse climber he can do well in Utelle and for the time being he'll want to stay where he is.
Mattias Skjelmose - Skjelmose is in great form and now in a very strong GC position too. He doesn't have the pressure to go for a stage win anymore, that will fall a lot on Evenepoel to attack this stage. Skjelmose has it in him to win on a climb as long as this, which could end in a small group sprint, he has both the climbing and sprinting abilities necessary.
Remco Evenepoel - The pressure is all on him and I fear the stage may not be hard enough to make the difference. I do think he's the strongest climber in the race for the moment, but this is a relatively shallow climb, it's long so it's hard to surprise, and he will be marked by everyone. Not ideal to win the stage or take the yellow jersey. The race lead is also too far away for him to reach it here, but if he wants to win the race he has to attack. Anyhow for a stage win he's absolutely got the skillset.
Primoz Roglic - Roglic does not have his best form, but he can fight for the win. He's won at Paris-Nice in climbs like this, at this point he will know that the overall win is almost impossible so he can afford to take risks, just try to follow wheels and then try think of a possible sprint.
The likes of
Egan Bernal and
Felix Gall can still play a meaningful role in the GC, certainly not away from the Top5 spots although they would both be favoured by a longer and more difficult stage.
Santiago Buitrago had a lot of bad luck today and fell out of the Top10. He's already gotten his stage but do not discard him from going for another. Specially now with freedom, he will be a rider that can use tactics to win once again.
Harold Tejada also sits ninth overall and is performing as best as one could expect.
With such short distances and many teams who want to push the pace, I doubt the breakaway stands many chances of winning this stage but it is not impossible. We've got quality climbers who have already lost time and, on a good day, can hold their own against the men that currently stand in the top spots. Pello Bilbao, Rigoberto Urán, Ion Izagirre, David Gaudu, Alexey Lutsenko, Michael Storer, Georg Zimmermann, Will Barta, Yannis Voisard and Matteo Sobrero are all on the shortlist.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 7:
*** Remco Evenepoel, Mattias Skjelmose
** Matteo Jorgenson, Primoz Roglic, Santiago Buitrago
* Luke Plapp, Brandon McNulty, Egan Bernal, Felix Gall, Harold Tejada, Wilco Kelderman
Pick: Mattias Skjelmose
