PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 6 - Jonas Vingegaard's race to lose at summit finish in Monte Petrano

Jonas Vingegaard won the first day in the mountains at Tirreno-Adriatico in impressive fashion. Stage 6 of Tirreno-Adriatico however is the queen stage as the riders will have a finish at Monte Petrano.

The queen stage of the Italian race was left quite late into the week. A day where it is very obvios that all the action will take place in the final climb. Beforehand there are some ascents and damage can be done, sure, but it's all a matter of saving the legs for the finish.

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Stage 6: Sassoferrato - Cagli (Monte Petrano), 180.6 kilometers

3500 meters of climbing throughout the 180 kilometers. In the final third of the stage we have two important ascents - 7 kilometers at 5% and 2.4 kilometers at 8.5%, summiting with 39 and 26 kilometers to go. All roads lead to Monte Petrano.

10 kilometers at 7.8%, with a very difficult start at 9/10%. The gradients do lower slightly into it's final phase but there, the riders find a few hairpins which allow for explosive moves and motivate attacks. A climb that is not overly difficult, but is tough enough for the pure climbers to make the difference. The overall classification may be decided here.

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The Weather

Map Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 6 

Not a pretty day weather wise. Cloudy skies, possibility of a little rain and some significant presence of wind. The riders will feel it coming from the southwest, which means a crosswind in the final two ascents before Monte Petrano. Here it should be mostly covered honestly, but if it's felt it should be in some crosswind and headwind sections (it's a very twisty climb).

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The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - The big question really is if anyone can beat Jonas Vingegaard. The first response in mind is yes possibly, if a breakaway wins on the day. But I doubt that will happen, Visma have full control of the race and they know that if they control the day they have strong chances of winning. Vingegaard rarely fails to deliver, and judging by today, it is very hard to see him being dropped or even matched by anyone else.

The rest - It really is a matter of him against the rest, but on a stage likes this under these conditions you can't really surprise Visma. I don't know if he will want to attack the race again early on the final climb or not, but he does not need to. Jai Hindley is the rider that has looked best out of the rest today, and this kind of day will be good for him. But it truly is the fight for the podium behind.

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He has to attack to reach Juan Ayuso's second place. 26 seconds, it is possible as Ayuso did struggle today on the climb. Ayuso should be able to defend it on a good day, whilst Jai Hindley should be rather safe. Thymen Arensman, Ben O'Connor and Isaac Del Toro sit closely behind in the fight for the podium, only a few seconds, but I don't think we'll see them having performances too diferent than today's. Cian Uijtdebroeks will also be there but I don't expect him to be above the competition; but to do just enough to grab himself another Top10 in an overall classification.

The rest was far behind today, except for Iván Sosa who can potentially also be there with the best if he finds consistency - which is not frequent. From that group we could see some interesting performances from the likes of Enric Mas, Antonio TIberi, Tom Pidcock, Kévin Vaquelin and Lennard Kämna.

Tao Geoghegan Hart and Daniel Martínez could perhaps be in more of a chance through a breakaway, as they arrived in an even more distant group. Guillaume Martin, Richard Carapaz, Damiano Caruso, Filippo Zana and Andreas Leknessund could be among those chasing a breakaway win, they have the climbing legs for it.

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Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 6:

*** Jonas Vingegaard
** Jai Hindley, Juan Ayuso, Ben O'Connor
* Thymen Arensman, Isaac Del Toro, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Iván Sosa, Enric Mas, Antonio Tiberi, Daniel Martínez, Damiano Caruso, Tao Geoghegan Hart

Pick: Jonas Vingegaard

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One race. Two seas. One champion. 🔱 Who will be the king of 2024 Tirreno-Adriatico @CA_ita? #TirrenoAdriatico

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