The first high-mountain stage of the Giro d'Italia is now behind us and the race enters a new phase. Stage 9, the last of the first week, ends in Napoli where the sprinters are expected to fight for the win - but this is far from certain taking into consideration what has happened earlier this week. We preview the stage ahead.
The final day of the first week sees the riders back into Napoli. After the success of the two past years, the city hosts another stage finish with a similar formula. A day for the sprinters but with enough climbing to launch questions. Despite it's long distance, it's a day where we can expect high speeds as the riders start off at over 700 meters of altitude and finish at sea level, without any meaningful climb of the menu.
In the past, a day designed for breakaway success into Napoli. This time around the sprinter teams have the upper hand, even if the weather plays a role on the day - it always can in this region. The final hour of racing will feature a few hilltops but likely none that can make a difference in the peloton. 3.7Km at 3.1% (36Km to go), 1.1Km at 6.7% (27Km to go), 2Km at 4.9% (19Km to go) and finally 3.2Km at 4.4% (7Km to go) will be the hilltops the riders face before the expected final sprint.
A little reminiscent of Milano-Sanremo honestly in it's finale, but a little more sprinter friendly. Don't expect any team to go wild either pacing and attacking as UAE did in March. However, don't expect all sprinters to cruise through. With high pace, they certainly can put some riders into difficulties. With a few downhill kilometers (and only 3 flat towards the line) some riders may want to attack the final hilltop and try to then survive or take advantage of some lack of organization.
The Weather
A small southern breeze. It will not help breakaways succeed; as for late attacks the finale should have a crosswind and it doesn't really do good or bad. A sprint could have some exposed crosswind as it's right by the sea but it won't be too meaningful.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - The big man can certainly climb despite his physical attributes, this will not be a difficult day for him. His leadout can also do so whilst Juan Pedro López' time loss means Lidl-Trek will further lead the team into focusing on his ambitions. Milan, in a pure sprint, is the strongest in the race and if it comes down to that then the Maglia Ciclamino certainly has the chance to win again.
Kaden Groves - Groves almost won in Andora, the day that had a climb quite close to the finish. Alpecin the following day pushed very hard in a climb early in the day to wear out the sprinters. Clearly, they want to fatigue the sprinters in the climbs as Groves is in great form. This arrival is not hard enough to really split the peloton but the Australian has here a good opportunity to finally win a stage.
Tim Merlier - It might seem distant, but Merlier did win the first bunch sprint. The Soudal - Quick-Step rider did not handle well the downhill finale of stage 4 and then didn't match Milan the following day... So confidence definitely won't be as high, but he can bounce back and I do expect him to at some point once again kick it with the best.
Two dangerous outsiders: Phil Bauhaus who was third in the last two bunch sprints (stages 4 and 5) and Caleb Ewan who suddenly bounced back and looked at his best on the fifth day. Both will handle the climbing and be fast options for the finale, if they have good positioning. Olav Kooij naturally is also in the mix, although he's not been having his best top end speed and lost his leadout men in Laporte today. Davide Ballerini, Andrea Vendrame and Tobias Lund Andresen could be riders to benefit from a tough final hour of racing.
Other sprinters could feature in the Top10 such as Tudor duo Alberto Dainese and Marius Mayrhofer; Jenthe Biermans, Fernando Gaviria, Madis Mihkels, Max Kanter, Stanislaw Anoilkowski, Ethan Vernon, Giovanni Lonardi, Juan Sebastián Molano and Enrico Zanoncello.
What if a late move is to succeed? It's not a wild idea, and the late attacks of Tadej Pogacar and Filippo Ganna earlier in the race can certainly motivate others to try the same. Ganna himself, Jhonatan Narváez, Laurence Pithie, Andrea Piccolo, Julian Alaphilippe, Matteo Trentin and Max Schachmann.
A breakaway could win again too. Pay attention to riders such as the national champion Simone Velasco, Stefano Oldani, Bastien Tronchon, Michael Valgren, Lilian Calmejane, Andrea Pietrobon, Filippo Fiorelli and Andrea Pasqualon. A mix of rouleurs and classics riders can do very well on a day like this; specially those who can also sprint.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 9:
*** Jonathan Milan, Kaden Groves
** Phil Bauhaus, Tim Merlier
* Caleb Ewan, Davide Ballerini, Tobias Lund Andresen, Olav Kooij, Filippo Ganna
Pick: Jonathan Milan
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