Analysis | Three reasons why Jonas Vingegaard will be the man to beat at the 2025 La Vuelta

Jonas Vingegaard arrives at the Vuelta a España 2025 as the clear favorite to win. It will be the Dane's third participation in the Spanish Grand Tour after 2020, and 2023 in which he finished second behind his teammate Sepp Kuss. Now, with the American out of real options and Primoz Roglic out of Visma, he has no excuses not to take the final red in Madrid. In fact, there are several factors that indicate that the Nordic rider will win the third grand tour of his career if nothing unusual happens.

Vingegaard started to win the Vuelta a España 2025 the day Tadej Pogacar confirmed he would not race it. This year everything indicated that we would be able to live the second duel between the Slovenian and the Dane, but in the end it will not be so. With the only man who is capable of beating him in stage races at home, there is no one who really seems capable of beating him.

Vingegaard's main rival in La Vuelta should be another UAE rider: João Almeida. However, after his fall in the Tour de France, the Portuguese rider will not be at 100% for the Spanish race and the Dane, who raced very little at the beginning of the year after his withdrawal in Paris-Nice, will be at his best for the start in Torino. UAE could also play the trump card of Juan Ayuso to hurt him, but it doesn't seem that the Valencian is a danger for him in the high mountains. Other names like Felix Gall, Giulio Ciccone, Daniel Martínez, Jai Hindley, Richard Carapaz, Mikel Landa or Antonio Tiberi should fight for the podium. 

The Javier Guillén-designed route for the Vuelta a España 2025 has once again been harshly criticized this year. It was said to be designed to attract a Tadej Pogacar who could have won a large number of stages so characteristic of the Spanish race, which this year are even more so.

It is a course that in a foreseeable duel between Vingegaard and Almeida suits the Danish rider much better as he is much more explosive than the Portuguese rider, who is much more diesel. Vingegaard has shown that, after Pogacar, he is currently the best in the world in days where everything is decided on a climb at the end, as he showed by finishing ahead of Mathieu van der Poel in a stage with a steep climb finish in the last Tour. In the final climb of the second stage and in the time trial of the fifth he should already make a difference that no one should hunt.

Jonas Vingegaard can't afford not to win the Vuelta a España 2025. It's as simple as that. Having Tadej Pogacar as a great rival makes many fans and experts criticize him for his more classical way of racing, focused on the Tour de France as Miguel Induráin started to do in the nineties and Lance Armstrong continued. It's something that no top cyclist (neither Alberto Contador, nor Chris Froome...) has been able to break until Pogacar, who, when it seemed impossible, has returned to dominate the cycling season as Eddy Merckx or Bernard Hinault did in their times.

Thus, Vingegaard needs to leave the Vuelta a España not only with the red jersey at the end, but also trying to win as many stages as he can to prove that he is also an offensive cyclist capable of giving a lot of spectacle when he sets his mind to it.