Jonas Vingegaard arrives at the Vuelta a España 2025 as the clear favorite to win. It will be the Dane's third participation in the Spanish Grand Tour after 2020, and 2023 in which he finished second behind his teammate Sepp Kuss. Now, with the American out of real options and Primoz Roglic out of Visma, he has no excuses not to take the final red in Madrid. In fact, there are several factors that indicate that the Nordic rider will win the third grand tour of his career if nothing unusual happens.
1. The rivals
Vingegaard started to win the Vuelta a España 2025 the day Tadej Pogacar confirmed he would not race it. This year everything indicated that we would be able to live the second duel between the Slovenian and the Dane, but in the end it will not be so. With the only man who is capable of beating him in stage races at home, there is no one who really seems capable of beating him.
Vingegaard's main rival in La Vuelta should be another UAE rider: João Almeida. However, after his fall in the Tour de France, the Portuguese rider will not be at 100% for the Spanish race and the Dane, who raced very little at the beginning of the year after his withdrawal in Paris-Nice, will be at his best for the start in Torino. UAE could also play the trump card of Juan Ayuso to hurt him, but it doesn't seem that the Valencian is a danger for him in the high mountains. Other names like Felix Gall, Giulio Ciccone, Daniel Martínez, Jai Hindley, Richard Carapaz, Mikel Landa or Antonio Tiberi should fight for the podium.
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2. The route
The Javier Guillén-designed route for the Vuelta a España 2025 has once again been harshly criticized this year. It was said to be designed to attract a Tadej Pogacar who could have won a large number of stages so characteristic of the Spanish race, which this year are even more so.
It is a course that in a foreseeable duel between Vingegaard and Almeida suits the Danish rider much better as he is much more explosive than the Portuguese rider, who is much more diesel. Vingegaard has shown that, after Pogacar, he is currently the best in the world in days where everything is decided on a climb at the end, as he showed by finishing ahead of Mathieu van der Poel in a stage with a steep climb finish in the last Tour. In the final climb of the second stage and in the time trial of the fifth he should already make a difference that no one should hunt.
3. Pride
Jonas Vingegaard can't afford not to win the Vuelta a España 2025. It's as simple as that. Having Tadej Pogacar as a great rival makes many fans and experts criticize him for his more classical way of racing, focused on the Tour de France as Miguel Induráin started to do in the nineties and Lance Armstrong continued. It's something that no top cyclist (neither Alberto Contador, nor Chris Froome...) has been able to break until Pogacar, who, when it seemed impossible, has returned to dominate the cycling season as Eddy Merckx or Bernard Hinault did in their times.
Thus, Vingegaard needs to leave the Vuelta a España not only with the red jersey at the end, but also trying to win as many stages as he can to prove that he is also an offensive cyclist capable of giving a lot of spectacle when he sets his mind to it.
Original: Jorge Borreguero
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Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- I live in Maribor.PogiSloFans14-11-2026
- I live in Ljubljana and often go on trips in the surrounding area, where I frequently see young cyclists in 'Pogi Team' jerseys training, either alone or in groups. By simply motivating so many young people to take up cycling, Tadej has already achieved something truly significant.Velijo14-11-2026
- That's an excellent point. It's interesting that Vader came to that realization only after he learned that his contract wasn't going to be renewed.
santiagobenites14-11-2026 - Indeed! A reluctant gift maybe. Even more reluctant gift from Roglic! Tho I can’t see that Rog would have beaten Ving anyway.Lozza14-11-2026
- That really nasty crash in 2022 Liege must have played a big part - broken ribs, pneumothorax. You only have to look at his points tallies pre and post.Lozza14-11-2026
- Yeah, good luck getting tv and race organisers like ASO etc to part with their cash!Lozza14-11-2026
- 36 and Ineos have bought a rider on the downward slope. Bring back Dave and Rob who could manage the team. How are Ineos going to win a grand tour with people past their sell by date.paultryan200214-11-2026
- Mmmm would he be making these comments when he was on the richest team when riding. I think not i suspect. If we want money put into the sport we need sponsors who are prepared to put the money in. No disrespect but his team are 2nd or 3rd div in football terms with riders over the hill or 2nd string riders. If i was a sponsor i would be looking at what publicity am i getting back and Tudor really are just making up the numbers really.paultryan200214-11-2026
- I see (elsewhere) that Alaphilippe had more to say than what got relayed in this stub. Me: he was very good early but his latter third trajectory was the pits. His old boss did what he could (huffed and puffed) but Julian couldn't get his greatness back. Sometimes I wonder if crashes that didn't look like much changed the course of the rider.flyer14-11-2026
- I wouldn't classify it as a gift because the nasty consequences of taking it from Sepp would have been great and would persist and he knew it.flyer14-11-2026
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