Pedal Punditry #14 - Which teams could Tom Pidcock go to in 2025 and how likely is it?

Tom Pidcock is the reigning Mountain Bike Olympic Champion and winner of Amstel Gold Race. His demise from INEOS Grenadiers is the face of a team currently in decline and struggling to keep it's main stars and it's management happy. Whilst it is not yet certain, the Briton is currently set to leave the team after the team decided to remove him from the Il Lombardia lineup.

This has followed months of a seemingly less than ideal relationship which was made evident before the Tour de France. A key statement at the Tour de Suisse: "I am going to decide what I want my Tour to be this year. Nobody else. Otherwise you don’t get anything from me. I need to be able to believe in my mission at the Tour." To interpret is easy: Pidcock had his own plan, he was focusing on himself, and this was clearly not the team's intentions. 

Carlos Rodríguez was the GC leader and Pidcock initially intended on doing the same, but with the Olympic Games Mountain Bike also in mind, both his preparation and post-Tour were already riddled with a different priority. In the end a messy participation which included a breakaway second place on the gravel stage, very little to no work for the team's GC ambitions which were the collective priority, and a DNS on stage 14 due to Covid-19 - not his fault, but it put further strain into why he was in the race.

Chance: 10%

His current team. We can quickly skip to the current situation. Pidcock has not had a good season on the road, winning Amstel Gold Race but nothing else, and not taking many quality results. He clearly showed talent as a stage-racer with good performances at Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Suisse, but nothing close to being a Grand Tour podium contender, and he had spent the year saying his objective was the best possible GC at the Tour de France. This will be, at the very best situation, only postponed a year.

In my honest opinion, whilst possible, it is very unlikely that the Briton will succeed at this. He can climb well, and in reality he can ride any type of terrain well, but the level currently in cycling is so high that a Top10 would already be a success for him at the Tour realistically speaking. For a rider that makes, reportedly, €4 million a season (up there with the likes of Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard) it is a massive salary, and money that is missing INEOS because over the past few seasons the team has lost several leaders and staff members and was not able to replenish the lost talent. The team puts in a lot of money and focus currently on the time-trialists (Filippo Ganna and Joshua Tarling mainly), which is fair, but it doesn't give back the same results, specially in an era where Remco Evenepoel is wiping TT's left and right.

Now we're in October, and after winning the MTB Olympics, Pidcock has a low period. Bretagne Classic, Tour of Britain, World Championships, nowhere to be seen... At the Giro dell'Emilia Tadej Pogacar attacks for victory in the rain and fog, but behind the rainy conditions make it brutal on the favourites and amidst the chaotic race for second place emerges Pidcock with a surprising result. Quite good actually, in a race that suits climbers well. His form is very good, he is confident in the descents and he is INEOS' obvious leader for Il Lombardia.

Friday afternoon, the official startlist is revealed and his name is not there, instead there's Ethan Hayter - a quality rider, but one with no chance of a result in the mountainous race. We wonder about possible illness or misfortune, but this is not the case. Within, non-ironically, 10 minutes, Pidcock posts on Instagram. A short text but with a very clear statement: "I am deselected for Lombardia tomorrow. I am in great shape and was really looking forwarded to it! Good luck to the boys, I guess off season starts early". There is no chance to interpret it any other way, Pidcock wanted and intended on being in the race where he had a legitimate chance of being on the podium and finishing a roller-coaster season on a high. But instead, INEOS goes into the monument with a lineup featuring no real leader or chance of fighting for a top result. Carlos Rodríguez, Egan Bernal, Geraint Thomas and Laurens de Plus are all by now in the off-season and thinking of next year.

The problems in INEOS are countless and the management is in trouble. But that is a story for another day. Currently we have a Pidcock with no more racing this year (on the road, Cyclocross wise we may see him in December), a huge salary, clearly bruised relations and active rumours of a departure for a different team. He has three years of contract left, but after the management decided to deprive him of Lombardia then we could see a handshake agreeing on a mutual termination of contract - Primoz Roglic's case last year sets a key precedent. However, it is not impossible that through comunication, the situation is resolved behind the scenes, of course taking into consideration Pidcock's nationality being important for the team but also three years of contract being left.

Chance: 50%

But most likely, we will be seeing the Briton leave. Destination: Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team? This would be a very unusual new team for him but at this point, the most likely by far. The Swiss team took the remnants of the old Qhubeka team, with Doug Ryder bringing it back in 2023, currently forming a second division Pro Team but one that does not have the riders to really match the World Tour teams, unlike the cases of Lotto Dstny, Israel - Premier Tech and Uno-X Mobility (or a few others who although rarely, have this on occasion).

The team might've received extra budget for a big move, but that's unlikely taking into consideration the riders they've signed up until now. But most likely, it's a different situation. Ivan Glasenberg is a key name here, keep it in mind. He is a Swiss-South African (the nationality of the current AND former team) billionaire who is a big investor in Q36.5 and is a big financier of the team; and coincidentally he is since June 2023 the owner of the Pinarello bike brand, taking over after paying an eye-watering sum of €175 million. Not only is Pidcock helping develop Pinarello's Mountain Bikes, he is showcasing them in the very best way and has won two consecutive Olympic Gold medals riding them. 

Hence we see a lot of dots here that can be connected. Glasenberg could put in a big sum of money specifically to sign the man who is doing the literal best advertising for the bike brand. Alongside him, as we learnt this Friday night from Gazzetta dello Sport journalist Ciro Scognamiglio, the transfers could also involve Pidcock's coach Kurt Bogaerts and INEOS Grenadiers veteran Michal Kwiatkowski.

The rumours of a move to Q36.5 only surged in the past week, but are quickly gaining traction. Besides Scognamiglio, another high-end journalist Daniel Friebe reported the same thing on the 4th of October. Having such reports is a clear-as-water indicator that the cogs are moving for a possible departure from INEOS. Daniel Benson, to only further enhance the credibility of such reports, has said this Friday that up to four teams are in contact with Pidcock. This leads us to conclude that at least for a few weeks, teams have been getting in contact with Pidcock and/or his agent and despite his existing contract, talks were not refused and even advanced.

Chance: 30%

This was the team that has been brought up the most during the year, the reason being obvious. But here, we enter more speculative terrain. There is no concrete evidence that talks of negotiations are happening between the two but there is a key link here: Red Bull. The energy drink is a personal sponsor of Tom Pidcock as well and is since last summer the title sponsor of the German team. Like Glasenberg's Pinarello connection, the German team also has a card up it's sleeve to play in potential negotiations and financing.

And money is certainly what's not lacking in the pockets of the team. It reportedly began a partnership with the team last year and might've helped the team bring in the very expensive signing of Primoz Roglic. But if any doubts existed over the team's improved financial situation, look no further than this winter... The team has officially signed Jan Tratnik, Laurence Pithie, Oier Lazkano, Finn Fisher-Black, Giulio Pellizzari, Tim and Mick van Dijke. Seven big-hitting names, seven shots fired and no blanks... The team is building a very strong block but these moves promise so much for the future, and I can assure you it was not cheap to make this change.

The team has money, has the big sponsor that has the interest in Pidcock, it very much has the space to give him freedom but equally a strong collective that can mutually benefit from a partnership in 2025... Now that Pidcock's INEOS demise seems evident we may see a big push from the German side.

Chance: 5%

Three more teams catch my eye when it comes to the chances of a transfer. These are much less likely, for obvious reasons, but the chances do exist. First is EF Education-EasyPost, a team that has very much given up on GC ambitions over the past years - signing Richard Carapaz, but the Ecuadorian has only once raced for a Grand Tour result which was at this past Vuelta a España. The team is currently lacking the depth it once had with several leaders and Pidcock would in my opinion fit like a glove.

It's a team that provides lots of opportunities for it's riders to race off-road, and even supports former riders' adventures that simultaneously provide great exposure for the sponsors (take Lachlan Morton's recent lap around Australia). The team has only signed one rider officially and that was Kasper Asgreen, revealed days ago over two months after the opening of the transfer season. I would not be surprised to know the team has funds saved to make more moves soon and Pidcock could be one.

Chance: 4%

The reasoning behind a transfer to Alpecin-Deceuninck is not too different. Like EF Education, and the next team, the issue is likely the funds and the lack of a key sponsor such as Q36.5 and Red Bull have. It makes life harder, naturally, but the Belgian team on paper would also in my opinion be a perfect fit for the Briton (perhaps even better than any other). A World Tour team, but one that does not have climbers on board and would without a doubt provide Pidcock with the leadership and freedom to choose his own calendar and Tour de France goals, he could finally aim for the GC whilst the pressure would remain mostly on Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen to be bringing in results.

Alpecin have the perfect combination and setup for road, cyclocross and mountain biking. Truly the team has experience in the off-road disciplines that likely surpasses any other World Tour team and I think that structurally speaking it could be the best to support Pidcock in this way. The team's philosophy is clearly of betting on the sprinters and classics specialists, it does not intend to change and it's signings are focused on that. Van der Poel, Philipsen and Kaden Groves remain and continue to be the big leaders. But there is so much space for a new leader to come in, specially Pidcock who focuses on the hilly and mountainous classics.

Besides that, the lack of a meaningful signing but the departure of Soren Kragh Andersen and Axel Laurance likely cleared up a decent amount of budget that could serve for the move. I seriously could not envision a better match.

Chance: 1%

The final card on the table that would realistically happen. Saying 1% is the first point, I think it's extremely unlikely that this could happen, but there are two big points to consider. The first is the addition of a Chinese sponsor whose financial boost is seeing the team go on a signing rampage which included a mid-season move from Alberto Bettiol, Wout Poels, Sergio Higuita and Diego Ulissi. We do not know how deep the pockets can be and having a star like Pidcock replace the current British team star Mark Cavendish does have a certain logic...

But most of all this is another team where Pidcock would have full freedom, being able to lead in a Grand Tour and have decent support, whilst being able to choose the classics he aims.