ANALYSIS: What can Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and co do to catch Tadej Pogacar?

On Sunday, cycling fans witnessed a performance for the ages in Zurich. Tadej Pogacar, already cemented as one of the greatest cyclists of his generation, delivered what could be his magnum opus, soloing from 100 kilometres out to win the World Championships road race. The victory, which earned him his first rainbow jersey, evoked memories of the golden era of cycling when legends like Eddy Merckx dominated the sport with similar audacity. Pogacar’s latest triumph was not just a victory, but a statement, a testament to his dominance in 2024.

Remco Evenepoel, Pogacar’s competitor, expressed disbelief at the audacity of the Slovenian’s attack. “I honestly didn’t expect it to happen so early,” he said to VTM in his post-race interview. “I thought it was a suicide attempt. When Mathieu van der Poel and I looked at each other, we thought it was a ‘crazy move.’” But Pogacar’s “crazy move” worked, leaving his rivals in shock as he powered to a solo win.

Pogacar, now reigning as the World, Tour de France, and Giro d’Italia champion, seems to be in a league of his own. His rivals, like Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, find themselves not only competing against him but against his relentless pursuit of cycling history. The burning question for the peloton is: what can they do to catch up?

Jonas Vingegaard

Jonas Vingegaard, the 27-year-old Danish rider for Team Visma-Lease a Bike, has given Pogacar his toughest challenges. He secured back-to-back Tour de France victories in 2022 and 2023, handing Pogacar his two most resounding and notable defeats of his career. However, 2024 was a different story. Vingegaard was not at his best at this year’s Tour, still recovering from severe injuries sustained during a crash at the Itzulia Basque Country in April. Yet, despite being physically compromised, he managed to win stage 11 in a sprint against Pogacar, showcasing the resilience that has made him such a formidable opponent.

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Vingegaard’s approach to racing differs significantly from Pogacar’s. He is more conservative, focusing on endurance and high-altitude climbing rather than explosive attacks. This cautious approach sometimes draws criticism. Evenepoel, frustrated by Vingegaard’s conservative tactics during stage 9 of this year’s Tour, remarked, “Unfortunately we have to accept that, although I think that sometimes you just have to show balls in the race. Unfortunately, Jonas didn’t have that. Unfortunately, it was part of their plan.”

However, Vingegaard’s strengths lie in his endurance and ability to outlast his rivals on the seemingly never-ending climbs. He doesn’t need to match Pogacar or Evenepoel’s explosiveness; he just needs to return to the form he displayed in 2023, where he distanced his rivals on the most demanding climbs. His performance on the Col de la Loze in the 2023 Tour de France was a masterclass, where he left Pogacar in the dust. While Pogacar may not have been at 100% that year, Vingegaard’s ability to control and pace himself over the long climbs remains unmatched.

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This year, Vingegaard demonstrated remarkable resilience by not cracking under pressure, despite his compromised fitness. He didn’t fold, even though he couldn’t match Pogacar’s form in the final week of the Tour. His recovery from the crash in April and determination to finish strong should not be underestimated. Many riders would not be able to train so soon after such severe injuries, let alone place second overall at the Tour de France.

In 2023, Vingegaard was the rider in ascendancy, and Pogacar had been dealt a significant defeat. This year, the tables have turned, and it would be unwise to rule out the possibility of this happening again. If Vingegaard can regain his best form and focus on his strengths, he can still challenge Pogacar for the title of the world’s best.

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Remco Evenepoel

At the beginning of 2024, Remco Evenepoel still had doubters. Though he was undeniably talented, his performance in the 2023 Vuelta a España raised questions about his potential as a consistent Grand Tour contender. He cracked in the high mountains and faltered in key moments. Additionally, Evenepoel was defeated by Matteo Jorgenson for the GC at the 2024 Paris-Nice and was injured in the same crash as Vingegaard in the Basque Country.

However, Evenepoel turned his season around in spectacular fashion, as his summer was nothing short of remarkable. He finished third overall in the Tour de France, winning the white jersey and securing a stage win. Even more impressively, he made history at the Paris Olympics by becoming the first male cyclist to win both the road race and time trial in the same games. To top it off, he defended his World Time Trial title in Zurich, solidifying his position as one of the sport’s most exciting talents.

Evenepoel’s ability to silence his critics and establish himself as the third-best Grand Tour rider is impressive, particularly at just 24 years old. He has time on his side to close the gap to Pogacar and Vingegaard.

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But what can Evenepoel do to improve? He is already an excellent climber, but to compete with the likes of Pogacar and Vingegaard, he needs to become legendary. His explosiveness is remarkable, but he must focus on improving his endurance on long, high-altitude climbs. This is where Pogacar and Vingegaard excel, and Evenepoel will need to close that gap. Although many fans want to see Evenepoel continue to dominate time trials around the world, reducing his time on the time trial bike in training and focusing more on mountainous terrain could help him close the gap to his rivals in the mountains.

Evenepoel is an unpredictable and aggressive rider, which makes him a wildcard in any race. His youthful exuberance, combined with his incredible talent, suggests that he could be a serious contender for future Grand Tours. He has also matured greatly over the past couple of seasons, and if anyone has the ability to challenge Pogacar and Vingegaard in the coming years, it’s Evenepoel.

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Conclusion: Can Pogacar Be Caught?

Tadej Pogacar’s dominance in 2024 has been a sight to behold. He has won nearly every major race he has entered, leaving his rivals scrambling to catch up. While Vingegaard and Evenepoel represent his most significant challenges, they will need to make improvements to their respective games to dethrone the Slovenian.

For Vingegaard, it’s about getting back to his very best form, where his endurance and ability to dominate on long climbs can once again put Pogacar under pressure. For Evenepoel, it’s about refining his climbing ability and ensuring he can sustain his explosiveness on the toughest mountain stages. The question is not whether they have the talent to compete but whether they can continue improving to the level required to challenge Pogacar’s near-invincibility.

As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, cycling fans will hope for more three-way battles between Pogacar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel. With the talent and potential of these riders, the future of cycling promises to be just as thrilling as the present.