ANALYSIS: Is Remco Evenepoel too accident prone to compete with Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard?

Remco Evenepoel’s 2024 season was, in many ways, a defining one. After a rough spring that saw him sidelined with injuries sustained during a crash at the Itzulia Basque Country, the young Belgian bounced back extraordinary to deliver the best year of his career to date. Evenepoel claimed third place at the Tour de France in his debut appearance, won a stage, and clinched the prestigious young riders’ classification. He then went on to make history at the Paris Olympics, becoming the first male cyclist to win both the time trial and road race golds in the same Games. It was a season that silenced many critics and showed that he is the closest rival to Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard.

But the year didn’t end on the same high note. In late November, during what should have been a routine training ride, Evenepoel suffered a freak crash, resulting in a suspected fractured collarbone and a severely damaged bike. This mishap not only cut short his recovery and preparation window for 2025 but also reignited questions about his ability to avoid incidents that could derail his career.

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While Primoz Roglic has often been labelled as cycling’s "crash-prone" star, Evenepoel has definitely had his fair share of incidents. The question is: are these incidents random misfortunes, or do they point to a larger issue? And more importantly, could his apparent susceptibility to accidents prevent him from consistently challenging Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard for supremacy in the coming years?

Major crashes and incidents in Evenepoel’s career so far

Evenepoel’s undeniable talent and meteoric rise have often been overshadowed, or at least halted, by a string of high-profile crashes. The most dramatic of these came in 2020 at Il Lombardia, where he misjudged a corner while descending, plunging over a guardrail and into a ravine. The crash left him with a fractured pelvis and a long road to recovery, sidelining him for months, but he was actually lucky to escape without more severe injuries.

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A year later, at the 2021 Giro d’Italia, Evenepoel’s Grand Tour debut was marred by another setback. On Stage 17, he crashed during a technical descent, sustaining injuries that forced him to abandon the race, and the incident raised questions about his handling skills, particularly in challenging conditions.

Evenepoel’s crashes have continued to plague him, with one of the most recent occurring earlier this year at the Itzulia Basque Country. A high-speed crash left him with multiple injuries and derailed his spring campaign. Though he rebounded spectacularly later in the season, these recurring incidents highlight a worrying trend. Of course, cycling is a sport where injuries are simply part of it, and sometimes it’s about when you crash, not if. But is there more Evenepoel could do about it?

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How do Evenepoel’s rivals compare?

Evenepoel isn’t the only top rider to suffer setbacks due to crashes, but how does he compare to his biggest rivals?

Tadej Pogacar faced a similar challenge in 2023 when a crash at Liège-Bastogne-Liège resulted in a fractured wrist. The injury severely disrupted his preparation for the Tour de France, and despite his best efforts, he was convincingly beaten by Jonas Vingegaard that summer. Pogacar himself admitted that he wasn’t at his best, and his wrist issues persisted well into the off-season.

Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar are familiar with injuries too

Jonas Vingegaard endured his own struggles in 2024. A crash at the Itzulia Basque Country left him with broken ribs and a collapsed lung, keeping him out of competition for several weeks and jeopardising his Tour de France campaign. Although he managed a second-place finish at the Tour, he was clearly not at the level required to challenge a resurgent Pogacar.

While Evenepoel’s rivals have had their fair share of accidents, the difference lies in frequency and timing. Pogacar and Vingegaard’s crashes have been occasional setbacks, while Evenepoel’s career has been littered with incidents that may not have been his fault, but still could prevent him from bridging the gap to the big two.

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Why does this happen to Remco?

Several factors may contribute to Evenepoel’s apparent susceptibility to crashes.

Firstly, his late start in the sport is worth noting, as Evenepoel only transitioned to cycling at age 17, having spent his early years as a promising footballer before a serious pelvic injury at 15 saw his professional dreams cut short. This late start means he has had less time to develop the instinctive positioning and handling skills that riders who began cycling in their early teens often possess.

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Evenepoel’s positioning in the peloton has also been a recurring issue. During the 2024 World Championships in Zurich, when Pogacar launched his race-winning attack, Evenepoel was poorly positioned and unable to respond effectively. Similarly, on Stage 2 of the Tour de France up the San Luca climb, his suboptimal placement left him with significant ground to make up, expending valuable energy in the process.

Experience in the peloton is crucial for avoiding crashes. Navigating through a tightly packed group of riders at high speeds requires not only skill but also a deep understanding and instinctive understanding of how the pack moves. Yes, crashes are inevitable, but Evenepoel’s relative inexperience compared to his rivals may leave him more vulnerable in chaotic situations, where split-second decisions can mean the difference between staying upright and hitting the tarmac.

Could Remco Evenepoel's late start in the sport contribute to his crashes?

Is Evenepoel’s 2025 season in jeopardy?

Evenepoel’s latest crash couldn’t have come at a worse time. The off-season is a critical period for rest, recovery, and building the fitness base required for the battles of a professional cycling season. According to Patrick Lefevere, the Soudal – Quick-Step team manager, Evenepoel will face up to eight weeks off the bike, disrupting his preparation for 2025. It’s a real shame, as Evenepoel truly had earned a rest after his superb 2024.

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This period of inactivity could have long-term implications. Cycling is a sport that rewards consistency, and missing key training blocks in the off-season can leave riders playing catch-up throughout the year. For Evenepoel, whose biggest goal in 2025 is likely to be the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France double, the delay in his preparation could compromise his ability to peak at the right time.

Injuries also take a mental toll. Evenepoel showed impressive and much improved mental strength in 2024, but the cumulative effect of repeated crashes may weigh heavily on his confidence and decision-making. But still, the Belgian has time to make some alterations to his schedule, in order to be at his Olympic road race level once again, which is the level he will need to be at to challenge Pogacar and Vingegaard.

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Remco Evenepoel’s talent is undeniable, and his 2024 season proved that he has what it takes to compete with the very best. However, his career has been marked by a pattern of crashes and incidents that raise legitimate questions about his ability to consistently challenge the likes of Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard.

While crashes are an inevitable part of cycling, and are no fault of his own, Evenepoel’s late start in the sport, positioning issues, and relative ‘inexperience’ in the peloton may make him more susceptible than his rivals. As his latest injury threatens to disrupt his 2025 preparations, Evenepoel faces an uphill battle to establish himself as a consistent force at the very top of the sport, and he must find a way to limit his incidents.

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Ultimately, whether he can overcome these challenges will determine whether he fulfils his potential as one of cycling’s greats or remains the third best rider of his generation, unable to catch the top two. Only time will tell, but we would love to see Evenepoel make it a three way fight for yellow in 2025.