"Going to lose the Tour — no question" - Jonas Vingegaard & Visma rode like 'knuckleheads' at the Dauphiné says former Vuelta winner

With the 2025 Tour de France now just weeks away, experts and analysts are looking into every detail of the recent performances of Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar in order to try and predict what will come next. According to former Vuelta a Espana winner Chris Horner, the Criterium du Dauphiné showing of Vingegaard and Team Visma | Lease a Bike left a lot to be improved upon.

"I want to put myself in the shoes of a directeur sportif at Team Visma | Lease a Bike, now that Dauphiné is done," begins the American in a video on his YouTube channel. "Normally, when the Dauphiné ends — about three weeks before the Tour de France — all the DSs at Team Visma | Lease a Bike will get together and evaluate how the race went. It’s crucial, especially if anything went wrong tactically, which in this case, it absolutely did. If they don’t meet, well then... they’re knuckleheads."

That critical term can also be used to describe the performances of Visma and Vingegaard at the Dauphiné according to Horner. "If they asked me: 'Chris, what did you think about the race?' I’d say: We looked like knuckleheads. I’d point specifically to three stages: Stage 1, Stage 6, and Stage 7," explains the 2013 Vuelta winner.

On stage 1, Horner is sharp in his analysis. "Vingegaard attacked under 6km to go. It was a good move at first... The attack drew out Tadej Pogacar, which is exactly what you want early — to wear his legs down," he says. "But what followed? Vingegaard started pulling with Pogacar. That’s a cardinal mistake. You do not pull with Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel, or Mathieu van der Poel."

"After the stage, Vingegaard himself said he was surprised to only lose 4 seconds and finish 2nd. If you’re surprised by that, then the move was a mistake. A knucklehead move. And one we’ve never seen from Jonas before," continues Horner's critique. "Look at past races — like the Tour de France or Paris-Nice — Jonas always refused to work with Tadej when it risked handing him time bonuses. But here, suddenly, he pulls with Pogacar and Evenepoel? Tactically, it made no sense."

As for stage 6? "This was the first of three mountain stages. UAE had only one big threat: Tadej Pogacar," Horner recalls. "So what did UAE do? They rode from the front all day, trying to reel back a break with Romain Bardet up the road. Everyone should have seen it: UAE was setting up Pogacar to attack on the final climbs. What did Visma-Lease a Bike do? They made it harder. They started drilling it with 45km to go. Sepp Kuss and Jorgenson attacked early. Why? UAE was already doing the work."

"Had they saved energy, Jonas might’ve stayed on Pogi’s wheel through the first climb, held on during the false flat, and maybe only lost a few seconds. He might even have kept the yellow jersey," Horner continues. "Instead, they rode like knuckleheads."

Stage 7 meanwhile, will go down as a misuse of resources for Visma according to Horner. "The big mountain day — 130km, with climbs like Col de la Madeleine and La Rosière. When coverage finally kicked in, we saw Jorgenson on the front of the penultimate climb. That should never happen unless you’re 100% sure Jonas can drop Pogacar right then and there — which we know wasn’t going to happen after what Pogi did on Stage 6," he notes.

"Jorgenson should’ve been up the road or saved for the final climb, so he could help Jonas close gaps when Pogacar inevitably attacked. Instead, he was burned too early," he assesses harshly. "Another tactical mistake."

"So, if I’m sitting at the table with the Visma DSs, I say this: 'We screwed up stages 1, 6, and 7. UAE rode a tactically flawless race. Pogacar only really went all-in on Stage 6 — and still won the GC,'" Horner concludes. "Jonas said he hopes to be better for the Tour in three weeks. He can be. But if we keep racing like we did here at Dauphiné, we’re going to lose the Tour — no question."