ANALYSIS: Is Primoz Roglic the greatest rider to have never won the Tour de France?
Cycling
Primoz Roglic’s status as one of the most consistent and successful Grand Tour riders of the 21st century is beyond dispute. Yet one question continues to follow him: can he truly be considered one of the greatest General Classification riders in cycling history without a Tour de France title?
Yes, unfortunately that day on stage 20 of the 2020 Tour de France still looms over him.
After winning the 2025 Volta a Catalunya following a showdown with Juan Ayuso, the Slovenian added another title to his glittering palmarès, one that arguably makes the question louder than ever.
With the win in Catalunya, Roglcč has now won 17 of the 22 WorldTour stage races he’s entered across his career. It’s a staggering record of consistency and ability at the highest level. More impressively, according to Cycling Statistics, he has achieved three or more victories in each of the last nine consecutive seasons.
Only a handful of legends have managed such sustained winning form: Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Laurent Jalabert, and Peter Sagan have all gone into double digits, while Sean Kelly, Mario Cipollini and André Greipel join Roglic on nine. Even five-time Tour de France winner Jacques Anquetil “only” managed this feat across eight seasons.
Roglic’s trajectory is unique. A former ski jumper, he entered the world of professional cycling much later than most of his contemporaries. That only makes his career haul more impressive. He has won four editions of the Vuelta a Espana, triumphed at the 2023 Giro d’Italia in sensational fashion, and claimed WorldTour victories at races including Tirreno-Adriatico, Itzulia Basque Country, the Critérium du Dauphiné, and Paris-Nice.
At 35 years old, and having just out-duelled one of the sport’s brightest stars in Ayuso, Roglic’s numbers aren’t just holding up, they look like they’re steadily improving.
“I just had great fun here. The legs are ready,” Roglič told the press after securing the Volta a Catalunya title, warning his rivals that he remains a major threat in Grand Tours. The result marked the third consecutive year a Slovenian rider has claimed victory in Catalunya, which is another reminder that whilst Tadej Pogacar is rightfully the country’s hero, it is Roglic who started this party off.
The one missing piece
Roglic’s credentials as a stage racer are remarkable, but he is inevitably measured against the biggest prize in the sport: the Tour de France. For all his victories, it still seems that his one missing piece defines him, and that is entirely unfair.
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What could have been in 2020 still looms large over his legacy. Roglic led the race for nearly two weeks and entered the decisive stage 20 time trial on La Planche des Belles Filles with a 57-second advantage over fellow Slovenian Tadej Pogacar.
What followed was one of the most dramatic reversals in Tour history, Pogacar’s ride became the stuff of legend, and Roglic’s heartbreak left a lasting scar. That day remains one of the most famous moments in Tour de France lore, and for Roglic, it was a cruel reminder of how quickly a dream can unravel.
He has not come as close since, with crashes and team roles often dictating his fate. At Jumbo-Visma, the emergence of Jonas Vingegaard complicated matters. Now, at Red Bull – BORA - hansgrohe, Roglic has a fresh platform and one final chance to complete the set.
Of course, his new team did not mean he was any less cursed at the Tour in 2024, where he crashed out once again. But he will get another chance this July, although under slightly different circumstances.
The Giro–Tour double
The 2025 season brings one of the most daring challenges of Roglic’s career: attempting the Giro d’Italia–Tour de France double.
Just 12 months ago, the Giro-Tour double was seen as impossible in the modern era. When Tadej Pogacar announced he would be attempting to pull off the double, many believed he was sabotaging his chances in the Tour.
Then he won both races, and 12 stages on the way. And now, people see the double as possible again.
But Pogacar is nine years younger than Roglic, and so his recovery time between the two races will likely be better. Roglic will most likely be the favourite heading to the Giro, but what does that mean in terms of his chances at the Tour?
“Hopefully this year we won’t repeat the mistakes,” Roglic admitted when reflecting on previous Tour de France preparations . While his 2023 Giro win was superbly timed, the Tour is an entirely different beast with the highest standard of rivals.
But even with momentum on his side, not everyone is convinced. Geraint Thomas questioned whether Roglic’s plans for the Tour are realistic, particularly given the presence of both Pogacar and Vingegaard. “I don’t get it, for Red Bull and Roglic,” Thomas said, casting doubt over whether the Slovenian can realistically overcome two generational talents in their prime .
A career among the greats
Comparing Roglic to some of the names mentioned earlier puts his achievements in context. Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Jacques Anquetil are synonymous with Tour de France glory, each ruthlessly dominating their respect eras.
Their versatility and Grand Tour hauls were completed by success across the Giro and Vuelta too. Roglic is not in that rarefied air when it comes to Tour victories, but in terms of consistency across week-long and three-week stage races, he is arguably more prolific than many who have won the Tour. Even Sean Kelly won just one grand tour GC yet is remembered as one of the most complete riders of the 1980s.
That leaves a very narrow group of riders who have matched Roglič’s GC success without ever claiming the Tour. Of them, none have won four Vueltas and a Giro. It’s that combination of volume and prestige that makes his case unique.
Laurent Jalabert, who like Roglic, won Itzulia, Paris-Nice, and Vuelta titles, also never conquered the Tour. Yet Jalabert only once finished inside the top five in France, and that was fourth in 1995. On the other hand, Roglic has worn yellow and come within touching distance of the title, so his peaks have been higher.
Even among those who have won the Tour once, like Jan Ullrich, Vincenzo Nibali or Carlos Sastre, Roglic’s continuity over multiple years arguably gives him the edge. A single Tour victory does not necessarily equate to a better GC legacy than Roglic’s sustained excellence elsewhere, or does it?
More than just numbers
Roglic’s evolution as a rider has also helped develop his reputation, and shows that riders can evolve throughout their careers.
Early in his career, he was seen as a powerful but slightly robotic climber. Over time, his time-trialling improved, his race IQ sharpened, and his ability to lead a team grew too. Took a look at his win at the 2023 Giro, a poetic reversal of 2020 and showed just how much he had learned, where this time it was Geraint Thomas who suffered the heartbreak.
His cool demeanour, sharp wit, and steely mindset have also won fans. After his latest win in Catalunya, Juan Ayuso was full of respect. “He was the strongest rider today. Hats off to him,” Ayuso said after giving everything on Montjuïc only to fall short .
Ayuso, Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel and Vingegaard represent the next generation. But Roglic, is still going toe-to-toe with them, and he’s not going anywhere just yet.
What’s to play for in 2025?
A look at the bookmakers will tell you that Primoz Roglic is not one of the outright favourites to win the Tour. In fact, he’s 25/1 with some bookmakers, behind the likes of Ayuso, Almeida, Evenepoel, Vingegaard and of course Pogacar.
Based on past performances in France, you can see why that is the case. But does that still not seem harsh?
Should Roglic fail to win the Tour in 2025, he may well retire without ever wearing yellow in Paris. But that does not diminish what he has already done. He will be remembered as one of the most consistent GC riders in cycling history, with a palmarès deeper and more varied than most.
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His gamble on the Giro–Tour double is bold, especially in an age when peaking for one Grand Tour is already a monumental task. But Roglic has never followed the script. From ski jumps to summit finishes, he has defied expectations his entire career.
In the end, perhaps the answer to the question lies not in whether Roglic is the greatest GC rider to never win the Tour, but in recognising that he is truly one of the best stage racers we have ever seen. Perhaps it is the manner in which he lost the yellow jersey five years ago which makes most people view him as ‘what could’ve been,’ instead of marvelling at his incredible CV.
With 17 WorldTour stage races conquered, four Vuelta’s, and a Giro title under his belt, Primoz Roglic’s legacy is already secure. He already is an all time great.
🇪🇸 #VoltaCatalunya104
— Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe (@RBH_ProCycling) March 30, 2025
When you just won the Volta a Catalunya but there’s also ski jumping on TV ⛷️ @rogla, please never change 😌 pic.twitter.com/fGrA79QA8R
Oh, the impossibility of this kind of comparison. A pre-WW2 Binda had amazing statistics, and that was one era. During what I think of as the romantic era, Poulidor had an incredible run at the Tour without winning, and Bobet won some grand tours and some Monuments. In this modern era (for me: after Hinault), we've had multiple Monument winners win a grand tour (such as Valverde and Kelly, with Kelly the better rider in general), and then we've got someone like Roglic, the true GC rider. Sure there was a Monument that was kind of a fluke (both Pogacar and Hirschi might have won, and twitchy Alaphilippe deserved relegation), but what matters are the 5 grand tours and all these wins across the 1 week GC races except for the Tour de Suisse (you'd think he'd race it to get the set of them all). In this era, since 2000 or so, maybe he meets the description as best non-Tour winner. How many GC riders have these wins and not the Tour? To compare to other eras really is not possible. He's his own unique rider, and it's been amazing watching him for the past many years. That's about all we can say.
He's a great rider for sure, not sure if he the best to never win the Tour though.
Raymond Poulidor, Alfredo Binda.... where do we stop. If you want to retitle it is Primoz Roglic the bestr rider never to win the tour in the last ten or 20 years then that might be better
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- Powless just got “better” at 28, Rog hasn’t gotten worse at 35, GT only really started getting going in GT late twenties. Give the guy a chance, he’s not even been let off the leash yet, remember what Jonas achieved GT wise since being given leader status.Mistermaumau03-04-2025
- Jorgenson turns 26 this year, he won't get much bettervappaxbipmv02-04-2025
- i completely agree. wouter has been through a meat grinder. he’s such a class act, a man of such character that he would never complain or make excuses, that’s why it’s so infuriating to hear him spoken about as if he was failing, choking, or in any way not fulfilling what’s expected of him. i get it, he’s a PRO, so part of what he gets paid for is to be a target for anyone with an opinion. fair enough. MY opinion is that he needs TIME to overcome a pile of injuries. i hope he gets there, because he deserves a pile of wins.OCexile02-04-2025
- I just went through the list of events in his recent riding history listed in another article (so not including his very expensive legal affair and any potential trouble at home) and it’s a half miracle he’s still riding at all. He's outfallen Roglič for sure, who always came away RELATIVELY unharmed.Mistermaumau02-04-2025
- ugh. slice and dice this any way you like. if you’re one of the belgians TRYING to believe wout is going to be in the fight at de ronde and roubaix, this is an ice cold dose of reality. my opinion is that nobody — ESPECIALLY his own team — should have been fanning any expectations of wout at this point after what he’s endured.OCexile02-04-2025
- I guess when you’re high, you don’t (need to) focus on anything ;-)Mistermaumau02-04-2025
- True but things also change, Primoz will get older, Remco crashes, MJ isn’t peaking yet and people can improve their weaknesses faster than others improve their strengths, cf MVDP climbing, JV TTing.Mistermaumau02-04-2025
- Sorry, yeah doesn’t look great but it seems all the recent context gets completely ignored in order to make a big story out of this. Honestly, did anyone at this point really expect Wout to suddenly have recovered all his missing form? Respect to Powless but he’s no nobody, his 2022-2023 presaged something like this. Yes they messed up but it also nearly worked, impossible to know how good your opponent is going to be in such a situation unkess it’s an in form Pog or MVDP. I’d not see this as a disaster but a really bad call, there are positives, they distanced a very strong 2nd group (Mads might be saving himself though) and Wout was very close to a place he’s not heen in a long time. I’d call that progress. Only a few meters would have led to completely different headlines. Why make everything so boack and white? Wout obviously understands and it is in part everyone putting all that pressure on him that led to him making a bad call. That said, had he let his mates go for the win (no guarantee either) héd have received different criticism.Mistermaumau02-04-2025
- Pogi is just had 9 days of racing.
James2631802-04-2025 - I’d advise doing brain scans during max efforts, you never know, he may be having micro blackouts without realising it at the time and with a crash you tend not to remember it after either. Like when you nod off a split second while driving, or realise you can’t remember any details from the last few km.Mistermaumau02-04-2025