ANALYSIS: Is Primoz Roglic the greatest rider to have never won the Tour de France?
CyclingMonday, 31 March 2025 at 12:00
Primoz Roglic’s status as one of the most consistent and
successful Grand Tour riders of the 21st century is beyond dispute. Yet one
question continues to follow him: can he truly be considered one of the
greatest General Classification riders in cycling history without a Tour de
France title?
Yes, unfortunately that day on stage 20 of the 2020 Tour de
France still looms over him.
After winning the 2025 Volta a Catalunya following a
showdown with Juan Ayuso, the Slovenian added another title to his glittering
palmarès, one that arguably makes the question louder than ever.
With the win in Catalunya, Roglcč has now won 17 of the 22
WorldTour stage races he’s entered across his career. It’s a staggering record
of consistency and ability at the highest level. More impressively, according
to Cycling Statistics, he has achieved three or more victories in each of the
last nine consecutive seasons.
Only a handful of legends have managed such sustained
winning form: Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Laurent Jalabert, and Peter Sagan
have all gone into double digits, while Sean Kelly, Mario Cipollini and André
Greipel join Roglic on nine. Even five-time Tour de France winner Jacques
Anquetil “only” managed this feat across eight seasons.
Roglic’s trajectory is unique. A former ski jumper, he
entered the world of professional cycling much later than most of his
contemporaries. That only makes his career haul more impressive. He has won
four editions of the Vuelta a Espana, triumphed at the 2023 Giro d’Italia in
sensational fashion, and claimed WorldTour victories at races including
Tirreno-Adriatico, Itzulia Basque Country, the Critérium du Dauphiné, and
Paris-Nice.
At 35 years old, and having just out-duelled one of the
sport’s brightest stars in Ayuso, Roglic’s numbers aren’t just holding up, they
look like they’re steadily improving.
“I just had great fun here. The legs are ready,” Roglič told
the press after securing the Volta a Catalunya title, warning his rivals that
he remains a major threat in Grand Tours. The result marked the third
consecutive year a Slovenian rider has claimed victory in Catalunya, which is another
reminder that whilst Tadej Pogacar is rightfully the country’s hero, it is
Roglic who started this party off.
The one missing piece
Roglic’s credentials as a stage racer are remarkable, but he
is inevitably measured against the biggest prize in the sport: the Tour de
France. For all his victories, it still seems that his one missing piece
defines him, and that is entirely unfair.
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What could have been in 2020 still looms large over his
legacy. Roglic led the race for nearly two weeks and entered the decisive stage
20 time trial on La Planche des Belles Filles with a 57-second advantage over
fellow Slovenian Tadej Pogacar.
What followed was one of the most dramatic reversals in Tour
history, Pogacar’s ride became the stuff of legend, and Roglic’s heartbreak
left a lasting scar. That day remains one of the most famous moments in Tour de
France lore, and for Roglic, it was a cruel reminder of how quickly a dream can
unravel.
Roglic has not won a stage in the Tour since 2020
He has not come as close since, with crashes and team roles
often dictating his fate. At Jumbo-Visma, the emergence of Jonas Vingegaard
complicated matters. Now, at Red Bull – BORA - hansgrohe, Roglic has a fresh
platform and one final chance to complete the set.
Of course, his new team did not mean he was any less cursed
at the Tour in 2024, where he crashed out once again. But he will get another
chance this July, although under slightly different circumstances.
The Giro–Tour double
The 2025 season brings one of the most daring challenges of
Roglic’s career: attempting the Giro d’Italia–Tour de France double.
Just 12 months ago, the Giro-Tour double was seen as
impossible in the modern era. When Tadej Pogacar announced he would be
attempting to pull off the double, many believed he was sabotaging his chances
in the Tour.
Then he won both races, and 12 stages on the way. And now, people
see the double as possible again.
But Pogacar is nine years younger than Roglic, and so his
recovery time between the two races will likely be better. Roglic will most
likely be the favourite heading to the Giro, but what does that mean in terms
of his chances at the Tour?
“Hopefully this year we won’t repeat the mistakes,” Roglic
admitted when reflecting on previous Tour de France preparations . While his
2023 Giro win was superbly timed, the Tour is an entirely different beast with
the highest standard of rivals.
But even with momentum on his side, not everyone is
convinced. Geraint Thomas questioned whether Roglic’s plans for the Tour are
realistic, particularly given the presence of both Pogacar and Vingegaard. “I
don’t get it, for Red Bull and Roglic,” Thomas said, casting doubt over whether
the Slovenian can realistically overcome two generational talents in their
prime .
A career among the greats
Comparing Roglic to some of the names mentioned earlier puts
his achievements in context. Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Jacques Anquetil
are synonymous with Tour de France glory, each ruthlessly dominating their
respect eras.
Their versatility and Grand Tour hauls were completed by
success across the Giro and Vuelta too. Roglic is not in that rarefied air when
it comes to Tour victories, but in terms of consistency across week-long and
three-week stage races, he is arguably more prolific than many who have won the
Tour. Even Sean Kelly won just one grand tour GC yet is remembered as one of
the most complete riders of the 1980s.
That leaves a very narrow group of riders who have matched
Roglič’s GC success without ever claiming the Tour. Of them, none have won four
Vueltas and a Giro. It’s that combination of volume and prestige that makes his
case unique.
Laurent Jalabert, who like Roglic, won Itzulia, Paris-Nice,
and Vuelta titles, also never conquered the Tour. Yet Jalabert only once
finished inside the top five in France, and that was fourth in 1995. On the
other hand, Roglic has worn yellow and come within touching distance of the
title, so his peaks have been higher.
Even among those who have won the Tour once, like Jan
Ullrich, Vincenzo Nibali or Carlos Sastre, Roglic’s continuity over multiple
years arguably gives him the edge. A single Tour victory does not necessarily
equate to a better GC legacy than Roglic’s sustained excellence elsewhere, or
does it?
More than just numbers
Roglic’s evolution as a rider has also helped develop his
reputation, and shows that riders can evolve throughout their careers.
Early in his career, he was seen as a powerful but slightly
robotic climber. Over time, his time-trialling improved, his race IQ sharpened,
and his ability to lead a team grew too. Took a look at his win at the 2023
Giro, a poetic reversal of 2020 and showed just how much he had learned, where
this time it was Geraint Thomas who suffered the heartbreak.
His cool demeanour, sharp wit, and steely mindset have also
won fans. After his latest win in Catalunya, Juan Ayuso was full of respect.
“He was the strongest rider today. Hats off to him,” Ayuso said after giving
everything on Montjuïc only to fall short .
Ayuso, Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel and Vingegaard represent the
next generation. But Roglic, is still going toe-to-toe with them, and he’s not
going anywhere just yet.
What’s to play for in 2025?
A look at the bookmakers will tell you that Primoz Roglic is
not one of the outright favourites to win the Tour. In fact, he’s 25/1 with
some bookmakers, behind the likes of Ayuso, Almeida, Evenepoel, Vingegaard and
of course Pogacar.
Based on past performances in France, you can see why that
is the case. But does that still not seem harsh?
Should Roglic fail to win the Tour in 2025, he may well
retire without ever wearing yellow in Paris. But that does not diminish what he
has already done. He will be remembered as one of the most consistent GC riders
in cycling history, with a palmarès deeper and more varied than most.
Read also
His gamble on the Giro–Tour double is bold, especially in an
age when peaking for one Grand Tour is already a monumental task. But Roglic
has never followed the script. From ski jumps to summit finishes, he has defied
expectations his entire career.
In the end, perhaps the answer to the question lies not in
whether Roglic is the greatest GC rider to never win the Tour, but in
recognising that he is truly one of the best stage racers we have ever seen.
Perhaps it is the manner in which he lost the yellow jersey five years ago
which makes most people view him as ‘what could’ve been,’ instead of marvelling
at his incredible CV.
With 17 WorldTour stage races conquered, four Vuelta’s, and
a Giro title under his belt, Primoz Roglic’s legacy is already secure. He
already is an all time great.
🇪🇸 #VoltaCatalunya104
— Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe (@RBH_ProCycling) March 30, 2025
When you just won the Volta a Catalunya but there’s also ski jumping on TV ⛷️ @rogla, please never change 😌 pic.twitter.com/fGrA79QA8R
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- Patrick did leave the team. He was just on a podcast giving his opinions on his former team's performance. It mentions, 'former boss' and the story about Remco being chased by BORA was last year while he was still in charge. Hope this helps :)poncher198202-05-2025
- I thought Patrick stepped down as owner. I know he had some health issues recently but I thought he stepped aside earlier than that. Could someone explain this to me please? I swear I heard he had stepped aside
kaos02-05-2025 - Ayuso is the problem child for UAE and he reminds me of another Pidcock. He's a great rider but he's not the great rider he thinks he is. He also won't get the opportunities that he wants at UAE so why stay? Go shine somewhere else mate. UAE keeps him cos he can win a few races but he's not happy winning just those races. He wants the whole deal. He wants Pogis spot and it's no secret. He's already refused to work for Pogi in the past. Go shine somewhere else lad. We won't be mad at you but don't blow smoke and say "everything is fine at UAE and with Pogi" cos they know what you're about and you're greedy. Just another problem child and we are seeing more of them lately. Pidcock was a big one and Ayuso has been acting this way for 3 seasons. ON YA BIKE THEN LAD!!!kaos02-05-2025
- I think Roglic could be the number one for the Giro. He has to stay upright tho😆 He seems to find a way to sabotage himself quite often but I wouldn't mind seeing him win the Giro. I don't like Ayuso, that's for sure. He's greedy and thinks he's gods gift. He thinks he's better than he is and he's not a team player. He reminds me of Pidcock. He's good but he's not happy with the opportunities the team gives him and he throws a tantrum when he's not given more opportunities. It's becoming something we are seeing more and more from this younger generation. They want it all and they want it now and they are going to do it their own way regardless but there's no room for that when you're on a TEAM. He needs to go somewhere else and pave his own road and see how hard it is when he doesn't have a juggernaut team to support him. I'm not a fan of his at all. I don't like selfish and greedy athletes. They are their own worst enemy and something always happens to them. It's just a matter of time before he screws up what he has going for himselfkaos02-05-2025
- I agree. This was my comment . . . Ayuso is the problem child for UAE and he reminds me of another Pidcock. He's a great rider but he's not the great rider he thinks he is. He also won't get the opportunities that he wants at UAE so why stay? Go shine somewhere else mate. UAE keeps him cos he can win a few races but he's not happy winning just those races. He wants the whole deal. He wants Pogis spot and it's no secret. He's already refused to work for Pogi in the past. Go shine somewhere else lad. We won't be mad at you but don't blow smoke and say "everything is fine at UAE and with Pogi" cos they know what you're about and you're greedy. Just another problem child and we are seeing more of them lately. Pidcock was a big one and Ayuso has been acting this way for 3 seasons. ON YA BIKE THEN LAD!!!kaos02-05-2025
- Ayuso is the problem child for UAE and he reminds me of another Pidcock. He's a great rider but he's not the great rider he thinks he is. He also won't get the opportunities that he wants at UAE so why stay? Go shine somewhere else mate. UAE keeps him cos he can win a few races but he's not happy winning just those races. He wants the whole deal. He wants Pogis spot and it's no secret. He's already refused to work for Pogi in the past. Go shine somewhere else lad. We won't be mad at you but don't blow smoke and say "everything is fine at UAE and with Pogi" cos they know what you're about and you're greedy. Just another problem child and we are seeing more of them lately. Pidcock was a big one and Ayuso has been acting this way for 3 seasons. ON YA BIKE THEN LAD!!!kaos02-05-2025
- I think you're reading it wrong. He is stating when titans collide - MSR, Flanders, PR - it is interesting. LBL less so.mij02-05-2025
- There are so many counterpoints, Bolt and Bubka were never boring, nobody complained about it either. Normal people also like to watch for reasons other than being surprised or pleased by results. Pro also stands for progress, none of these guys are aliens, they’re just ahead of their time but others catch up when they learn what made the difference. Besides, he doesn’t win as often or regularly as some in other sports, even team sports. And, he’s “easily” beaten when the course doesn’t suit him.Mistermaumau02-05-2025
- Even if ROGLIČ is there?Ride197402-05-2025
- "If someone else is better, then you help them." When? I've never seen him helping CONSISTENTLY a teammate. He runs in the back of the peloton, hidden, to avoid help (in UAE and in Spain team). If someone (Almeida, Adam) shouts and scolds him, then he goes ahead and pulls for few minutes/kms (simulation of help).
maria2024202402-05-2025
Oh, the impossibility of this kind of comparison. A pre-WW2 Binda had amazing statistics, and that was one era. During what I think of as the romantic era, Poulidor had an incredible run at the Tour without winning, and Bobet won some grand tours and some Monuments. In this modern era (for me: after Hinault), we've had multiple Monument winners win a grand tour (such as Valverde and Kelly, with Kelly the better rider in general), and then we've got someone like Roglic, the true GC rider. Sure there was a Monument that was kind of a fluke (both Pogacar and Hirschi might have won, and twitchy Alaphilippe deserved relegation), but what matters are the 5 grand tours and all these wins across the 1 week GC races except for the Tour de Suisse (you'd think he'd race it to get the set of them all). In this era, since 2000 or so, maybe he meets the description as best non-Tour winner. How many GC riders have these wins and not the Tour? To compare to other eras really is not possible. He's his own unique rider, and it's been amazing watching him for the past many years. That's about all we can say.
He's a great rider for sure, not sure if he the best to never win the Tour though.
Raymond Poulidor, Alfredo Binda.... where do we stop. If you want to retitle it is Primoz Roglic the bestr rider never to win the tour in the last ten or 20 years then that might be better
Let me help you. Alfredo Binda