ANALYSIS: 3 reasons Jonas Vingegaard can beat Tadej Pogacar at 2025 Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar has written his 2024 season into the annals of cycling history, surpassing even the barbarities of Eddy Merckx in the seventies. For his rivals however, all hope is not lost.

This has caused many to begin to dismiss Jonas Vingegaard and to take it for granted that the Slovenian superstar is going to dominate the Dane once again at the 2025 Tour de France. Here are 3 reasons to help you not to take it so much for granted!

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1. The fall in the Itzulia.

The Tour 2024 has been conditioned by the fall of Jonas Vingegaard in the Itzulia Basque Country. The Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader was able to recover in time to make it to the Grande Boucle, but not to do so in peak form, so it was an unequal fight against the UAE's leader, as it had been in 2023 because of the latter's crash in Liège. The last time the two went toe-to-toe without injury in the high mountains was in 2022 and the Dane was the man who prevailed.

2. The calendar

Although it has been rumoured that Vingegaard may ride the Giro d'Italia in 2025, what we know for sure today is that the Visma rider is preparing thoroughly to arrive at the Tour de France in perfect shape, while Pogi has very important objectives before that. In particular, for next year he will have the Milan-San Remo in his sights and it would be rare not to see him in the Ardennes or in Flanders fighting to accumulate more Monuments. Very different strategies: one that goes for everything like Merckx and the other focused on the grand tours like Armstrong;

3. The level in the flat time trial of the Tour.

What Jonas Vingegaard did in the Combloux time trial at the 2023 Tour de France is something we've never seen Tadej Pogacar do. The Danish rider moved watts at the level of Miguel Induráin in an incredible display that shows his preparation is 300% focused on the world's most important race. So, if there was equality in the high mountains (something feasible), the one who has demonstrated in flat time trials to be able to show the highest level is Vingo.

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