"That fall indeed decides the entire race" - Thijs Zonneveld believes van der Poel and van Aert go into Tour of Flanders almost evenly matched

The E3 Saxo Classic is the most important race ahead of the Tour of Flanders, where the riders find the same key ascents that they will in the second monument of the season. Here Mathieu van der Poel took a strong win, but he believes Wout van Aert was at the same level and lost because of the crash at the Paterberg.

"The proportions are the same as last year. It quickly became clear that Van der Poel was the best on the small, steep climbs, but he also had the upper hand on the flat, where Van Aert, as an excellent time trialist, is usually better," Zonneveld said in the Het Wiel podcast. "There is almost no other way to win E3 than simply being the strongest. For that you just have to go to the winners of the past ten years."

History has shown this to be a brutal race where riders need their top form to win. Van der Poel showed that exactly, riding into a superb triumph after attacking at the Paterberg to ride solo off the front. However the Dutch analyst points out that the World Champion was in charge of the race. "It is worrying that when Van der Poel enters the race, everything turns completely square at Visma | Lease a Bike. He takes control of the race every time, because he really uses his strength on the various climbs," he argues.

"Visma | Lease a Bike then stopped again to let some riders return, so that they would be in excess again and then let them ride away with the next climb in prospect. In this way they tried to put pressure on Van der Poel and Van Aert could serve as a watchdog. They initially absolutely wanted to avoid a hand-to-hand fight, but with that defensive behavior they were unable to beat Van der Poel in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix last year," he says.

The team lacks Christophe Laporte who is currently ill, whilst neither Jan Tratnik or Dylan van Baarle showed the level that they traditionally have in the classics. This played a role in Visma's lack of early attacks which saw them win both classics in the Opening Weekend; but that may change in the upcoming races. Also, because he believes that van Aert could've matched van der Poel if he had not crashed at a key moment.

That fall indeed decides the entire race, but it is very interesting to study that. Van Aert and Visma | Lease a Bike constantly raced passively and gave the initiative to Van der Poel and it is all much more logical that it is Van Aert who crashes," he continues. "It is Van der Poel who set the race and Van Aert had to respond to him a fraction later each time, which meant that he was constantly pushed into oppression."

Van Aert put in an impressive effort to almost completely close the gap over the Oude Kwaremont and following kilometers, but ultimately exploded and rode to third on the day. He looks to be in a good position when it comes to his preparation for the monuments.

"He probably had so much adrenaline and good morale to overtake everyone, but if you are really sensible and you really want to ride in blocks, then he should have run with Matteo Jorgenson and Lidl-Trek," Zonneveld argues however, a flaw in van Aert's tactic on the day possibly. "They simply lived on two half-plans, but I do think that at Visma | Lease a Bike were shocked that Van der Poel drove away for another two minutes afterwards."

However whilst he thinks van der Poel has the edge for Flanders, he may not at Paris-Roubaix: "If you compare the different climbs with each other, you notice something. For example, the Stationsberg is less steep and Van Aert was able to answer Van der Poel's attack, while the Taaienberg is steep and Van Aert fell off there. So in Paris-Roubaix it will be more difficult for Van der Poel to drop Van Aert. It will be closer together there."