PREVIEW | Gent - Wevelgem 2024 - Can Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen repeat Milano-Sanremo fireworks?

Sunday, 24 March 2024 at 10:33

The longest cobbled classic ahead of the Tour of Flanders. Gent Wevelgem is a classic that is not as difficult as the big Flandrien monument, but it is a very explosive and dynamic race which delivers action among the best classics specialists every single year. We preview the great race that awaits us.

Most of the 252-kilometer race is flat, not a hard profile which is the reason why in most years it is a reduced group sprint fighting it out for the win. The race is flat except for a hilly section which is based on three ascents of the Kemmelberg in which every year there are attacks, as well as off-road sections which have been added in recent years.

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Through Belvedère, the riders will climb up twice. It’s a grueling ramp where many will suffer, splits will occur in the first time up with 85 kilometers to go. From there on there will be a few gravel sectors known as the ‘plugstreets’, which will see 4.1 kilometers where mishaps may happen, a game of luck essentially when it comes to mechanicals, with the last one finishing with 67 kilometers to go.

The second time up the Kemmelberg will be with 52 kilometers to go and in this time up attacks are certain as the classics riders will want to push on the pace to definitely drop the fast men, and make a definitive difference.

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Kemmelberg (Belvedere): 600 meters; 9.3%; 85/52.5Km to go

There are a couple of hilltops following, but the last place to make a difference based on power is the ascent to the Kemmelberg via the Ossuaire. It is a harder ascent, most of it on tarmac but with small-ring gradients before the riders hit the cobbles that go up to 18%. It’s a 30-second max effort where riders tend to crack near the summit, it comes with 35 kilometers to go.

Kemmelberg (Oussaire): 700 meters; 9.6%; 35Km to go

From there on though there will be relief as much of the approach to Wevelgem is completely flat. There will be time to reorganize, put on a chase for both smaller and bigger groups. The race has a very interesting dynamic where the specialists and the sprinters try to balance the race towards their preferred direction, and it’s a race that usually sees different types of scenarios that lead to the win.

Finale Gent-Wevelgem 2024

Very strong western wind. This is race-changing, yes. First of all this will create echelons threat throughout most of the day, as the riders race in a northern-southern trend. Adding to this tension, the wind will be coming from the back almost all the way back into Wevelgem. This is crucial as it will be a strong tailwind, speeds will be very high and so catching attacks will be significantly harder; whilst the benefit from riding in the wheel is also lesser. A sprint finish is in complete jeopardy, it will not rain but the wind absolutely favours anyone who wants to attack.

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The Favourites

Alpecin - Deceuninck - With E3 in the pocket, Mathieu van der Poel would start this race without pressure. Better suited to the sprinters, he could help control attacks and bring things back for Jasper Philipsen. However with the wind like this, and in the absence of Wout van Aert, I seriously think van der Poel can make the difference on the climbs and solo to victory. If not alone, he can team up with someone and then still be the best option for a sprint; his game is superior to the rest in this field. The team do still have the option to be conservative but I do not think in this case it's worth it. Philipsen, in terrific form, will follow the main groups and then play his cards in the sprint - regardless of the position that will be for.

Lidl - Trek - I think collectively speaking Trek is the only team really able to contest. Jasper Stuyven is back at his prime form as shown in Sanremo and E3 and so he can definitely race well uphill. Like most attacking favourites however, his danger lies in the flat roads where he can power through immensely. Despite packing a strong sprint, Mads Pedersen is not afraid to attack either and I think both will try to make the difference early on and try to form a small group before the final climb. The team still have Jonathan Milan as a third card, this one for a sprint which can release some pressure off Pedersen's shoulders.

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Honestly, we can expect attacks from other riders, but it's all about van der Poel and the climbs at this point. A few riders can do quite well and, united, carry the danger into Wevelgem. The likes of Jhonatan Narváez and Stefan Küng looked particularly good at the E3 Saxo Classic. Laurence Pithie did well at Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne and actually throughout the entire spring so far, I think he can do really well in these climbs but also in a sprint scenario. Matej Mohoric and Nils Politt very dangerous for the flat roads in any attack.

Tiesj Benoot, Jan Tratnik, Fred Wright, Oliver Naesen, Mikkel Bjerg, Brent van Moer, Rasmus Tiller and Anthony Turgis are other riders that I would expect to see towards the front when it comes to attacks. Some have leaders hoping for a sprint, but in a race like this you always have to be ahead of the competition if you want to win and you can't save legs unless you pack a good sprint.

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The Sprinters

They will not like the weather, but the sprinters obviously play a big role in this race. It will be hard to organize and chase attackers in the climbs however, even if they are on a terrific day. The list is actually very extended. Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier, Biniam Girmay, Danny van Poppel, Michael Matthews, Arnaud De Lie, Alexander Kristoff and Matteo Trentin are the kind of riders who are very well suited to this type of the race; and could benefit from others being dropped and the race coming together for a sprint.

Then we've got some riders with a strong sprint that can also ride the classics quite well such as Luca Mozzato, Axel Zingle, Pierre Gautherat, Nils Eekhoff, Corbin Strong, Dries van Gestel and Emilien Jeanièrre.

For a more conservative race and a regular sprint we'd see riders such as Arnaud Démare, Sam Bennett, Casper van Uden, Marius Mayrhofer, Luke Lamperti, Cees Bol, Max Kanter, Jordi Meeus, Elia Viviani, Fernando Gaviria, Dylan Groenewegen, Juan Sebastián Molano, Jake Stewart and Lorrenzo Manzin.

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Prediction Gent - Wevelgem 2024:

*** Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen
** Mathieu van der Poel, Laurence Pithie, Jhonatan Narváez
* Jasper Stuyven, Matej Mohoric, Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier, Biniam Girmay, Pierre Gautherat, Michael Matthews, Dries van Gestel

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel