SPECIAL | ChatGPT predicts 2024 Tour de France

AI has over the past years been on the rise and it is everywhere from technology to sports and everything inbetween. ChatGPT is one of the most reputable tools and we have asked it plenty questions regarding the 2024 Tour de France; from who will win, to who will be the biggest surprise and opinion on specific riders such as Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel, Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel.

Having tested it and figured that the AI was up to date, it was time to ask it all kinds of questions. It is important to note that it's answers are based on analysis provided by news outlets, sports websites... Reputable sources on the matter. Nevertheless, it was impressive how quickly it provided me with detailed (and in my opinion, very good) answers.

Question: Who do you think will win the 2024 Tour de France?


Tadej Pogacar is considered the favorite. Pogačar, a two-time Tour de France winner (2020 and 2021), has shown consistent form and strength. He has a solid team in UAE Team Emirates, which includes strong riders like Adam Yates and Juan Ayuso, providing him with significant support.

Jonas Vingegaard, the 2022 and 2023 Tour de France champion, is another strong contender. His preparation is meticulously planned, and he has a proven track record in the race. However, his success might be impacted by the absence of key teammates like Wout van Aert, who will be focusing on the Giro​. (NOTE: This proves the AI isn't fully updated, as Van Aert has been confirmed to race the Tour.)

Primoz Roglic remains a strong challenger. His resilience and experience in grand tours make him a formidable opponent, although his preparation and participation might be slightly hindered by injuries.

Remco Evenepoel is a rising star with high potential. Despite being young, he has already achieved significant victories and is often compared to cycling legends. His form and strategic race planning could make him a serious threat​.

Other potential contenders include Juan Ayuso, who is gaining momentum with impressive recent performances, and Egan Bernal, a past Tour winner who is working on a comeback.

Given the current dynamics and conditions, Tadej Pogačar is the most likely candidate to win the 2024 Tour de France, but the competition is fierce and the outcome could be influenced by numerous factors throughout the race.

Question: Is UAE Team Emirates going to be stronger than Team Visma | Lease a Bike?


Both teams have a strong leader with a proven track record. Pogačar and Vingegaard are likely to be the primary contenders for the yellow jersey. UAE Team Emirates appears to have a more stable support squad with fewer injury concerns. Their riders are generally in good form and ready to provide crucial assistance in the mountains and during critical stages.

Vingegaard's recent form is slightly uncertain, with some caution about his fitness levels. Team Visma has a history of strong performances but will need their key riders to stay healthy and perform at their best​. In summary, both teams are incredibly strong, but UAE Team Emirates might have a slight edge due to the relatively stable condition and form of their support riders. However, the dynamics of the race, including early stages and unforeseen incidents, will play a significant role in determining the ultimate winner.

Question: Will Jonas Vingegaard manage to find his best form during the Tour?


Jonas Vingegaard's form and readiness for the 2024 Tour de France have been under close scrutiny following his recent recovery from injury. Vingegaard, who spent 12 days in a Spanish hospital after a crash in April, has been diligently training to regain his peak form. He has been training at altitude in Tignes and seems to be progressing well according to his coach, Tim Heemskerk. Heemskerk mentioned that Vingegaard has been working on both his fitness and shoulder strength, with promising signs from his recent training sessions in Mallorca and the French Alps.

However, there remains some uncertainty. Team Visma | Lease a Bike has indicated that Vingegaard needs to be at 100% to compete effectively, and his final decision to race will depend on his condition leading up to the event​. Despite this cautious optimism, the team has not yet made an official decision on his participation (NOTE: Yes it has), emphasizing the importance of his complete readiness to defend his title​.

Overall, while Vingegaard's training progress looks positive, it will be critical for him to demonstrate his peak performance in the early stages of the Tour if he is to contend for his third consecutive victory.

SPECIAL | ChatGPT predicts 2024 Tour de France
Jonas Vingegaard dominated the 2024 Tirreno-Adriatico. @Sirotti

Question: Is Tadej Pogacar going to find his best form after the Giro d'Italia?

Tadej Pogačar is expected to be in excellent form for the 2024 Tour de France following his impressive victory at the Giro d'Italia. Pogačar dominated the Giro, winning six stages and securing the overall victory by a significant margin, showcasing his exceptional climbing and time-trialling abilities.

Pogačar's form leading into the Tour de France appears to be at its peak. UAE Team Emirates' sports manager, Joxean Matxin, described Pogačar as being in his "best-ever form" ahead of the Giro, which suggests that he is well-prepared and capable of maintaining this high level of performance​​. Additionally, Pogačar has a history of bouncing back strongly after intensive races, and his team's strategic planning and support structure are designed to help him recover and perform optimally during the Tour. Given his recent performances and overall fitness, Pogačar is well-positioned to find his best form for the Tour de France and potentially secure another victory.

Question: Can Remco Evenepoel actually win the Tour?


Remco Evenepoel has the potential to make a significant impact at the 2024 Tour de France, but there are several factors that could affect his chances of winning. This will be his first time competing in the Tour, and although he has shown remarkable talent and resilience in other Grand Tours, including winning the Vuelta a España in 2022, the competition at the Tour de France will be intense​.

Evenepoel is well-known for his time-trial abilities, which could play to his advantage given the 60km of individual time trials in this year's Tour. However, both his team principal Patrick Lefevere and Evenepoel himself have expressed some reservations. Lefevere has doubts about whether Evenepoel is yet at the same level as Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar​. Evenepoel acknowledges the challenge and has set more modest goals of achieving a top-five finish and winning a stage.

His preparation includes competing in key races like Paris-Nice and the Critérium du Dauphiné to fine-tune his form​​. The presence of experienced teammates like Mikel Landa will support him in the mountains, but whether this will be enough to contend with the likes of Vingegaard and Pogačar remains to be seen​.

While Evenepoel's talent is undeniable, winning the Tour in his debut year would be a monumental feat, given the level of competition and the unique challenges of the race. His progress and form leading up to the Tour will provide better insights into his potential performance.

Question: How about Primoz Roglic? Winner, podium or none?


Primož Roglič's chances in the 2024 Tour de France are promising, but his performance remains uncertain due to past challenges and the fierce competition. Roglič, now with Bora-Hansgrohe, has shown excellent form, winning the Critérium du Dauphiné, a key indicator of Tour readiness.

However, Roglič has a history of unfortunate events in the Tour, such as crashes and injuries, which have previously thwarted his ambitions​​. Despite this, his recent victory at the 2024 Giro d'Italia (NOTE: I believe it meant the Dauphiné) suggests he still has the capability to compete at the highest level.

Given his strong preparation and experience, a podium finish is within reach, and with some luck, he might even contend for the overall win. Nonetheless, he faces tough competition from favorites like Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar.

SPECIAL | ChatGPT predicts 2024 Tour de France
Primoz Roglic after winning the 2024 Criterium du Dauphiné. @Sirotti

Question: What to expect of Mathieu van der Poel?


Mathieu van der Poel is expected to make a significant impact at the 2024 Tour de France, although his participation in the entire race isn't guaranteed. His primary focus for the year is the Olympic Games, specifically the road race, after deciding to skip the mountain bike event to prioritize his road racing ambitions. This marks a shift from previous plans that included mountain biking, emphasizing his commitment to excelling in the road discipline while wearing the World Champion's rainbow jersey.

Van der Poel aims to assist his teammate Jasper Philipsen, especially in the sprint stages, and also seeks to win a stage himself. His preparation has been carefully planned to ensure he peaks at the right time, despite not racing between Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour. Given his versatility and experience, Van der Poel is expected to be in top form by the Grand Départ in Florence​. While it's uncertain if he will complete the entire Tour, Van der Poel's presence will undoubtedly add excitement, particularly in the stages where he can utilize his explosive power and tactical acumen.

Question: Wout van Aert, full domestique or will he still be able to win a stage?


Wout van Aert is expected to play a dual role in the 2024 Tour de France, balancing his duties as a domestique with opportunities to pursue personal stage victories. Van Aert, who has consistently demonstrated his versatility and strength in past Tours, will be crucial in supporting his teammate Jonas Vingegaard's quest for overall victory.

Despite his support role, Van Aert's talent and ambition mean he is still likely to target specific stages that suit his abilities. His past performances, including multiple stage wins in previous Tours, indicate that he is more than capable of seizing stage victories, particularly in terrains that play to his strengths, such as time trials and hilly stages​.

In summary, while Van Aert's primary focus will be on aiding his team's overall strategy, he is expected to find opportunities to shine individually and potentially add more stage wins to his impressive record.

Question: Can Matteo Jorgenson fight for the overall classification, or is that out of Visma's plan?


Matteo Jorgenson's role in Team Jumbo-Visma for the 2024 Tour de France is primarily focused on supporting the team's GC leaders rather than pursuing the overall classification himself. As a new addition to the team, Jorgenson's versatility and recent success in races like Paris-Nice and Dwars door Vlaanderen make him a valuable asset. His performances have shown that he can handle various terrains effectively, but Jumbo-Visma's primary strategy will likely center around Jonas Vingegaard and potentially other key riders like Primož Roglič (NOTE: A slight mishap, Roglic is no longer part of Visma).

Jorgenson's ability to perform consistently and his potential for stage wins or important support roles in the mountains or other crucial stages will be crucial for the team. However, it's unlikely that he will be positioned as a main contender for the overall GC, given the team's depth and focus on their established leaders.

Question: Who will be the biggest surprise of the Tour?


Predicting the biggest surprise of the 2024 Tour de France is always challenging due to the unpredictable nature of the race. However, some emerging riders and dark horse candidates have the potential to make a significant impact.

One standout possibility is Matteo Jorgenson from Visma-Lease A Bike. Although he is primarily expected to support Jonas Vingegaard, his individual talent and climbing abilities could allow him to shine in certain stages or even emerge as a surprising contender in the overall classification if given the opportunity.

Another potential surprise could come from Tom Pidcock of Ineos Grenadiers. Known for his versatility and strong performances in one-day races and mountain stages, he could unexpectedly challenge for stage wins or even a high placement in the general classification.

Ben O'Connor from AG2R Citroën Team is also a name to watch. His impressive climbing skills and previous performances in Grand Tours suggest he could be a dark horse for a podium finish if he can maintain consistency throughout the race. (NOTE: O'Connor will not race the Tour de France, so this is definitely not the case.)

Ultimately, the Tour de France often produces unexpected results, and these riders have the potential to be the surprise stars of the 2024 edition.

SPECIAL | ChatGPT predicts 2024 Tour de France
2024 Paris-Nice winner Matteo Jorgenson is among the best stage-racers of 2024, but his chances at the Tour de France are unknown. @Sirotti

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