Sean Kelly believes Pogacar would have won Paris-Roubaix without the crash: “The world champion would have dug deep and got into time trial mode”

Sean Kelly is no stranger to the chaos and glory of the Spring Classics. The Irish legend, now 68, won Paris-Roubaix and Milano-Sanremo multiple times, and claimed five Tour de France stage victories alongside a Vuelta a España title. His palmarès include nearly every major honour in the sport, with the Tour of Flanders the only Monument that eluded him.

So when Kelly offers his insight into the current crop of classics riders, it’s worth listening. In his recent Cycling News column, he reflected on the dramatic 2025 edition of Paris-Roubaix and the spring campaign more broadly. At the heart of his analysis: the ongoing duel between Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar, the unlucky brilliance of Mads Pedersen, and whether Wout van Aert's peak has passed.

Much of the pre-race hype centred on the long-awaited debut of Tadej Pogacar at Paris-Roubaix. The Slovenian had already won the Tour of Flanders, Il Lombardia, and Liège–Bastogne–Liège, and was the first rider in decades to take on Paris-Roubaix as the reigning Tour de France winner.

But it was reigning world champion Mathieu van der Poel who ultimately stole the headlines again, claiming a third straight win at Roubaix. Still, Kelly believes Pogacar may have missed a golden opportunity.

“Of course, it was always going to be hard for Pogačar to beat Van der Poel in that one-on-one situation because he would have had to have shaken him off before the sprint in the velodrome. Still, if Pogačar had been there when Van der Poel had his mechanical, he would have won the race. The world champion would have dug deep and got into time trial mode, and when you're out front in Roubaix, even if you're dying, you can still pull something out.”

Kelly suggests that Pogacar’s crash, the result of misjudging a corner, cost him more than just momentum. It might have cost him victory. But at the same time, Kelly doesn’t excuse the mistake.

“Pogačar made that big mistake that cost him the race, and it was a big, big error, especially against a guy like Van der Poel who's so good at bike handling that he could probably ride around a corner like that on ice. It's just the type of racer that Pogačar is, though – he's not afraid to try things, whether that's attacking 70km out or taking a risk on a corner.

"But this time, he got caught out, and maybe if he'd just followed Van der Poel or been more cautious on the cobbles, it would have been different. That's what I'd have told him to do if I were his director, rather than taking risks in difficult places.”

Despite the crash and a second-place finish, Pogacar’s first attempt at the Hell of the North left a lasting impression, including on Kelly.

“I didn't think he'd be that good, and the way things were strung out early definitely helped him, but he rode really well.”

Kelly is convinced the Slovenian will be back for more, and that it’s only a matter of time before he claims a Roubaix cobblestone of his own.

“The signs say that Pogačar can definitely win Paris-Roubaix. The conditions will be important – Sunday wasn't a bad Roubaix, there was some mud but it was quite dry in the end – so if we get dry conditions again, Pogačar is going to win Roubaix in the next couple of years, and I'll be very surprised if he's not back next year.”

For Kelly, Van der Poel’s greatness lies not just in his legs, but in his instinct, timing, and bike-handling, a theme he returns to often.

“Mathieu van der Poel showed again on Sunday that he's just a master in so many different ways. Bike handling, cornering, giving himself space – all these little things conserve a little bit of energy which you then save for later in the day, and we saw how he was able to dig in and take advantage after Pogačar's crash, which is what he needed to do to win.”

Van der Poel’s combination of physical strength and tactical intelligence continues to make the difference. Kelly does acknowledge that Van der Poel has benefitted from some good fortune, but he’s quick to point out that in a race like Roubaix, "luck" is often the product of skill.

“He also keeps having good luck in these races, he doesn't crash and he doesn't get caught behind crashes, but in Roubaix, you do make your own luck, and it's his ability to read the race, foresee incidents and handle his bike so well that means he avoids crashes and punctures, which is maybe was Pogačar is lacking.”

The showdown between Pogacar and Van der Poel was the centrepiece of the race, but Mads Pedersen looked poised to disrupt the script before suffering an untimely puncture.

“As we maybe expected, the race came down to a Pogačar vs Van der Poel duel, but Mads Pedersen was almost there. When he had his puncture, it was a real disaster time for that to happen, and he's been looking really impressive before that. Right from the first sector, he was the one who was pushing on a lot, and I did think 'Is he going to pay for this?' but sadly it was the puncture that took him out.”

Kelly believes Pedersen’s aggressive start hinted at a race-winning ride, and it’s a shame the cycling world didn’t get to see how he would have fared against the sport’s top two if fate hadn’t intervened.

“If that hadn't happened, and he'd been there with Pogačar and Van der Poel, maybe Pedersen would have attacked and they'd look at each other, but unfortunately we didn't get the chance to see that in real life and how he might have performed.”

Wout van Aert’s spring has been filled with setbacks. After crashing out of Dwars door Vlaanderen and skipping both Flanders and Roubaix due to injury, he watched from the sidelines as his rivals claimed the spotlight.

Kelly, however, focused more on Van Aert’s recent performances, particularly his diminished edge in the biggest moments.

“Wout van Aert was apparently caught behind a crash, and then he had a flat, so he got into difficult situations and had to make a lot of efforts to get back into it. He finished strong, but he seems to lack the real high end intensity, so when the race is really on, he's just not at the level.”

“This can happen later in your career, where you still have that stamina but just not the explosiveness in the key moments, so he's still got good shape, but just not what you need to compete for the win in the Spring Classics.”