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"Are you sure we wouldn't have seen van der Poel pop Pogacar?" - Bruyneel, Hincapie and Martin on Paris-Roubaix's epic duel

Cycling
by Rúben Silva
Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 09:44
tadejpogacar mathieuvanderpoel
The 2025 edition of Paris-Roubaix was not as close as some have been in the past, but it has nevertheless delivered dramatic action. Before entering the final 90 kilometers, the main favourites had gone to the limit, and then it was a matter of riders cracking and suffering mishaps all the way to the line which would decide the race.
"They're just so dominant these days the big three riders," George Hincapie said in The Move podcast. "Well, we have essentially the same podium in Flanders and Roubaix, just a little bit different with Pogacar on the top step and the two other guys in there". The American is thoroughly impressed with the World Champions' level, even if a strong Pogacar was always going to be expected on the day.
"Just the way he rides, I know we're going to break it down, but attacking with over 100 kilometers to go, I don't think we've ever seen anything like that with the big guns. Pogacar, van der Poel and Mads Pedersen started so early, I don't know if they wanted to not deal with the rest of the peloton and be away on their own... Really really just hard racing, full gas from the start, different type of cycling that we've seen".

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In the final two hours of racing it was very much a race of survival, but from 110 to 90 kilometers to go is where the differences were really made. Johan Bruyneel provides a theory as to why the riders are so eager to make differences so early on.
"I've been thinking about this, why do they go so early especially in a race like Roubaix. 104 kilometers [to go]} we see Pedersen attacking, Pogacar and then van der Poel - the three of them basically in one kilometer time [...] That's basically the first selection and none of the others come back. Since they're such big favourites, it's also a way to make sure that in the last 60/70k that they have their cars behind them?"
It can also be argued that doing so is a strategy to avoid then being surprised later by teams with depth. In Pogacar's case, UAE Team Emirates - XRG looked much stronger, but just like Flanders there wasn't one occasion where the Emirati team actually managed to put their rivals under pressure due to their high numbers. Even in a race as chaotic as Roubaix, there were barely any tactics deployed, and it was all about the legs. This strategy always benefits Pogacar who is a rider that handles the long distances and attacks like very few.

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But after crashing, his chances of taking a win in the velodrome where dramatically cut. "Remember E3 two years ago where van Aert crashes, and he holds it at like 15 seconds, and the chaser thinks they're getting a chance but it burns them out. You saw Pogacar go so deep he's probably thinking 'I can get to the car' and it fries him out," Spencer Martin argued. "And van der Poel, he's so even keel when he's off the front like that. Obviously you have to be really good to be in that position".
However Martin believes that the cash only speeded up the inevitable, which at that point of the race would likely be a van der Poel victory - for the third time in a row. "Two questions for you guys: Are you sure we wouldn't have seen van der Poel pop Pogacar? I think he would've dropped him in those final cobbled sectors, just judging how labored he looked. It just felt like the race finally caught up to him".

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"If I were a child, Mathieu would be my idol" - Tadej Pogacar on rival van der Poel"If I were a child, Mathieu would be my idol" - Tadej Pogacar on rival van der Poel
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Previous article

"I have to admit I had quite a bit too much to drink" - Mathieu van der Poel's Paris-Roubaix bidon thrower apologises in first public comments

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Sean Kelly believes Pogacar would have won Paris-Roubaix without the crash: “The world champion would have dug deep and got into time trial mode”

4 Comments
JBlake 16 April 2025 at 10:07+ 9

If we're playing the "what if" game - I'd go further back to Mads getting a puncture and possibly being a favourite to win the race. He would have likely beat Tadej and MVDP in a sprint at the Velodrome. He appeared to be one of the stronger riders who faced some bad luck. But, that's just cycling. Wout could have very well won Paris-Roubaix in 2023 if he hadn't punctured in the last 10km. I wish Tadej hadn't crashed or would've caught up so all these stories of how Tadej should have won wouldn't exist, I think MVDP was the stronger rider in this particular race.

Mistermaumau 16 April 2025 at 17:50+ 3546

Exactly, and with Mads in the running, a quartet would have been formed, TP and MVDP would have had to exhaust themselves more to shake off both Mads and Jasper although MVDP could have played his lead-out role for Jasper again (remember, it was he who broke Jasper, not Tadej and I don’t think Tadej would have risked countless attacks noticing an unbudging MVDP (who’d constantly pull Jasper with him without Jasper having to go into the red)). Any of the possible scenarios would NOT have favoured Tadej and in a 4-way sprint at the end his most likely place would then have been 4th. In the end he can count himself quite fortunate with his 2nd. Don’t think there’s a market for games for budding cycling team managers managers, so let’s just stop the ifs and buts, if MVDP hadn’t been ill at Flanders, if Jonas hadn’t crashed before the last Tour, if Primoz hadn’t underestimated Tadej on the Planche des Belles Filles, if, if if works both ways.

FredMan 15 April 2025 at 23:43+ 115

A MVDP victory certainly did not seem "inevitable" before the crash, with TP, MVDP and Philipsen leaving the peloton behind.. Pogi attacked to drop Philipsen, with Mathieu understandably unwilling to help, and he was surely attempting to put MVDP on the limit later by attacking again, until the crash derailed his efforts. Still the gap was manageable, and he was slowly trimming it down, but then a mechanical forced him to change bikes and that was the final straw. Kudos to TP for making it exciting, rather than just a walk in the park for MVDP.

mobk 16 April 2025 at 10:06+ 1616

MVDP also had a late bike change, so in theory a chance for Pogi to reel some time back. But by that point MvdP was stronger

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