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PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 7 - Can Wout van Aert win on the same finale where Peter Sagan won his first ever Grand Tour stage?
CyclingFriday, 23 August 2024 at 12:32
Stage 7 of the Vuelta a España is another hilly day, but with quite a different profile to today's. Most of the stage is rather flat but there is a complicated climb before the finale in Córdoba, the same finale where in 2011 Peter Sagan won the first time in a Grand Tour.
Stage 7 is another tricky hilly day. Almost completely flat with the exception of the appropriately named Alto del 14%. Not a brutal climb but it provides an opportunity for attacks whilst the descent has seen spectacular attacks in the past as well before the flat finale in Córdoba.
Stage 7: Archidona - Córdoba, 181.2 kilometers
Most of the stage truly has very little to analyze. A few tiny climbs but nothing meaningful, just a dull run-in to the city that will host the finish. Action should kick off in the climb that was made quite famous in 2011. Perhaps the descent was more memorable as Liquigas then attacked as a team with Peter Sagan winning the stage and Vincenzo Nibali winning time on the GC.
The climb is 7.4 kilometers at 6.5%. Most of the climb relatively gentle but it has a kilometer at 10% close to the summit. GC riders can make moves, but other climbers and puncheurs will have the same opportunity... The ascent summits with 25 kilometers to go and there is a plateau section that only ends a few kilometers later.
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Alto del 14%: 7.4Km; 5.65; 25.3Km to go
Only the final 11 kilometers are flat, there is time to put on a chase but not too much. But they will not be technical, instead just outside the city. The finale will have a slight right-hand bend but it's a very wide avenue and it will be hard to stay in front of a fast-moving peloton.
The Weather
Map Vuelta a España 2024 stage 7
38 degrees at the finish... Back to the oven for the poor Vuelta peloton that just has no break. It will be a tough day in the office for the riders with a strong southern breeze at the start which may briefly create echelons danger, but then throughout most of the day the riders will face no wind and the temperature will be the main obstacle to tackle.
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The Favourites
Wout van Aert - On paper, a stage well suited to him. If he can fight for a top result is not a question. A breakaway should be easy to control, Visma's main obstacle is controlling the final kilometers. Cian Uijtdebroeks won't want to burn off legs to work on the final flat kilometers... Attila Valter may have a key role on this day. If it does come down to a sprint he should be the main favourite because although Kaden Groves can climb well, he hasn't showed that yet here.
I would very much see Israel - Premier Tech pushing a strong pace in the final climb and kilometers because Corbin Strong is legitimately a good contender for the day, and the team now has several good climbers in form who can do this job and drop rival sprinters. Kaden Groves, Pavel Bittner and Bryan Coquard are all cards for a sprint but they will hope for a conservative climb, otherwise they have little chances of surviving it. Ide Schelling, Pau Miquel and Arjen Livyns are also riders to consider whilst Lennert van Eetvelt himself has shown vey explosive legs and could well aim for bonus seconds at the finish.
On the steep climb you can expect attacks on the steep section, riders such as Dylan Teuns or even GC riders like Aleksandr Vlasov can definitely try to create a group in terrain well suited to them. Jhonatan Narváez and Andreas Kron can certainly also do this and they also pack a very strong sprint that can be worthy in any size of group.
More riders can do this, the final descent is very fast and the final kilometers are unlikely to see sprinter teams with many riders. However equally, they may try to be in the breakaway of the day as Visma may not have help to control the stage. Victor Campenaerts, Stefan Küng, Mathias Vacek, Oier Lazkano, Mauro Schmid and Felix Engelhardt are examples of very dangerous riders.
Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 7:
*** Wout van Aert
** Corbin Strong, Jhonatan Narváez
* Kaden Groves, Pavel Bittner, Lennert van Eetvelt, Andreas Kron, Victor Campenaerts
Pick: Wout van Aert
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