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PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 3 - Wout Van Aert and Kaden Groves face off again but in 40-degree heat hilly stage
CyclingMonday, 19 August 2024 at 09:25
Stage 3 of the Vuelta a España will be quite a brutal day. On paper one for the sprinters but in reality one that not only features quite a lot of climbing but also extreme heat as the riders tackle another full day in Portuguese territory. We preview what should be quite a difficult day.
The third day of racing won't be too different. On paper a day designed for the sprinters but with a hilly start and a few climbs during the day that, together with the heat, will throw in quite a lot of obstacles for those who struggle outside of the flat roads. The stage immediately starts off with a 5.6-kilometer long ascent at 3.7%... The first 25 kilometers are a roller-coaster, but it doesn't really get easier from there on.
Stage 3: Lousã - Castelo Branco, 189.3 kilometers
There will still be over 100 kilometers to go but the riders will tackle a 17-kilometer long ascent which will put some fatigue in the legs of the riders. With 43 kilometers to go comes the end of the last true climb of the day which is 6.3 kilometers at 3.3%. There is, again, 2600 meters of climbing on the day and a little bit of it still comes in the final kilometers.
The sprint finish in Castelo Branco is also not flat. It won't be anything dramatic, but the slight uphill gradients in the final 2 kilometers will make it just that bit harder and will drain the legs of a few sprinters. There is not technical aspect to it at all - only a slight roundabout with 1 kilometer to go.
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The Weather
Map Vuelta a España 2024 stage 3
Insane heat is coming in the direction of the riders. No less than 37 degrees are expected at the finish. This can lead to some riders truly suffering, and it can also lead to some having problems that will affect them in the coming days. Regarding the stage, it shouldn't prevent it from being a sprint but it will certainly make it tougher and more difficult to control. The wind will blow from the northwest at first in the day but this will fade as the riders go on, not much is expected in the finale.
The Favourites
Wout van Aert - Visma have done exactly what they do best. They did not have a leadout, but the sole presence of Edoardo Affini gave the team enough firepower to get van Aert to the sprint perfectly. Hence, you can expect the Italian to do the same, specially as no other team had any bit of leadout in the final kilometer. This will be another slightly uphill sprint but it won't favour him enough still. But I am sure that beating Groves is a matter of putting just a little more watts and is a fully realistic scenario.
Kaden Groves - The Australian was expected to take the first one, and showed today that he is in great form because the finale was hard and not just a pure bunch sprint. There weren't good signs from his leadout which means he will have to likely start his moves again from behind but he is the strongest sprinter in the race on paper. Two-for-two remains the most likely scenario for the day.
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A few more men will be fighting for top places but I think will remain quite below. Corbin Strong put up quite a strong sprint today quite honestly, he will not have a leadout but can certainly contest for the victory if he starts his sprint right in the wheel of van Aert or Groves this time around. Bryan Coquard, Pavel Bittner, Ide Schelling, Pau Miquel, Jon Aberasturi and today's unlucky rider Mathias Vacek should also be among the fast men.
What about attacks. I thought they would come today but that certainly did not turn out to be the case. I believe that with such weather conditions it is more and more hard to control the stage for a sprint. But at the same time, knowing it's the first days of the race and seeing how it went today, I get the feeling most will not want to take the chance and instead try to do that later in the race.
Still this is no reason to discard very talented riders like KOM classification leader Stefan Küng, Oier Lazkano, Kasper Asgreen and Bruno Armirail. A few more can certainly take the chance it's not a very selective day, but also the crashes today affected a few riders that could take the opportunity.
Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 3:
*** Wout van Aert, Kaden Groves
** Corbin Strong
* Bryan Coquard, Mathias Vacek, Pau Miquel, Ide Schelling, Pavel Bittner
Pick: Kaden Groves
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