PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 20 - Can Primoz Roglic seal red jersey in the queen stage?

Primoz Roglic has taken control of the overall classification of the Vuelta a España. He has finally taken on the red jersey but has a colossal mountain day ahead where the victory is anything but assured. We preview stage 20.

The queen stage is the final one in the mountains. Vuelta organizers went crazy with this one, packing in 5000 meters of climbing in only 172 kilometers. It will be in Burgos that the race will be decided. Seven categorized climbs after an uphill start and the summit finish at the very hard Picón Blanco. The stage was designed to have this amount of climbing in as least distance as possible.

We will see the following climbs:

Alto de Bocos - 2.7Km; 6.6%; 5 kilometers of racing

Las Estacas de Trueba - 9.2Km; 3%; 134Km to go

Puerto de la Braguia - 5.8Km; 5.3%; 117Km to go

Alto del Caracol - 10.7Km; 5.4%; 98Km to go

Portillo de Lunada - 14.1Km; 6.1%; 79Km to go

Portillo de la Sia - 7.2Km; 5.8%; 61Km to go

Puerto de los Tornos - 11.2Km; 5.8%

This will all be preparation however, likely. The final climb is hard enough to create serious damage and so most riders will look to not hit the wind until then. But many will struggle a lot, that is certain, regardless of their climbing quality. The final climb to Picón Blanco is 8 kilometers long at 9% but it's in my opinion even harder than what it suggests. It's a climb comparable to the early part of Mont Ventoux - very steep, constant and without any turns to break the monotony. It's just a pure climbing effort with nowhere to hide.

The Weather

The rain will fall and this will make the stage more treacherous, and more difficult too. Crashes are a possibility and it will make a few GC riders more conservative for certain. There will be some northern wind, on paper a headwind in the final climb however it will be very steep and perhaps it won't be too meaningful.

The Favourites

GC Fight - Primoz Roglic is finally in the race lead. It took a while, but BORA's plan did pay off at the end. The victory is what they care about and now the Slovenian has dropped O'Connor whilst having a healthy gap over Enric Mas. This day will be his final obstacle, and it is a hard one. The main favourite to win the race, but this is a stage with lots of climbs, which is not good for him. Mas has shown to be able to make the difference earlier in the race in such days however he needs to take at least three minutes in order to be the main favourite to win the GC and that's very hard. The climbs before the final one are not too hard and although they are many, it's unlikely that Mas will risk it all there.

On the final climb you can make big differences still and a stage win could be up for grabs. Meanwhile you do have riders such as Richard Carapaz who won't care much about a fourth place and seeing how he's been racing, he can certainly make a move earlier on to try and put O'Connor under difficulty in the fight for the podium. The rain and aggressive racing also favours him. David Gaudu is in a not too different position; the Frenchman wants to save his quality Top5 but in reality he has very good form and honestly I think he would have reason to still dream of the podium and try to surprise if the chance presents himself - perhaps with Stefan Küng in the breakaway.

You do have Carlos Rodríguez and Mattias Skjelmose in an extremely tight battle for the white jersey, they will just look at each other. Ben O'Connor will also want the easiest day possible, finishing second is still very much possible and the podium is likely. Towards the 9th spot you have Mikel Landa, strong today after a bad stage 18, he has nothing to lose and this is a suiting day for him which honestly means we could have him attacking early or trying to be part of the breakaway. Sepp Kuss and Eddie Dunbar also have a lot to gain and little to lose if they do this. Cristian Rodríguez and Lorenzo Fortunato will want a good GC but a stage at this point is much more important and worth the risk.

Breakaway? - A few GC riders will try to get there, have no doubt. BORA have a very strong team who can control, if they desire. Likely no-one dangerous for the red jersey will be there. Meanwhile a few riders want to be in the breakaway quite a lot such as UAE who have Marc Soler and Jay Vine fighting for the KOM classification and perhaps Adam Yates who has faded out of GC. Steven Kruijswijk, Attila Valter, Mattia Cattaneo, Sam Oomen, Matthew Riccitello, Mauro Schmid, Filippo Zana, Max Poole, Guillaume Martin and Pablo Castrillo are all riders who have chances of being up there and fight for a win.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 20:

*** Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas
** David Gaudu, Mattias Skjelmose, Mikel Landa, Eddie Dunbar
* Richard Carapaz, Carlos Rodríguez, Matthew Riccitello, Sepp Kuss, Lorenzo Fortunato, Mattia Cattaneo, Steven Kruijswijk, Filippo Zana, Max Poole, Pablo Castrillo

Pick: Eddie Dunbar