ANALYSIS: Jonas Vingegaard’s golden chance to turn a lost season into historic triumph

The 2025 Tour de France is now history. This past Sunday, the race drew to a close with the always-spectacular final stage into Paris. It marked the end of a Tour that, in truth, was somewhat underwhelming in terms of the battle for the general classification. At no point did it feel as though Jonas Vingegaard was clearly superior to Tadej Pogacar. Ever since the individual time trial in Caen on Stage 5, where the Dane fell over a minute behind, he was never able to claw back time from his great rival — even in the most gruelling mountain stages, including the decisive ascent to Hautacam.

The defeat is stark. The outcome of this year's Grande Boucle was effectively sealed as early as Stage 12, right at the midpoint of the race. Those two minutes Vingegaard conceded to UAE Team Emirates XRG’s leading man ultimately paved the way for Pogačar to claim a fourth Tour de France title. For Vingegaard, meanwhile, his tally remains at the two Tours he won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023.

Yet not all is bleak for Jonas Vingegaard. It’s no secret that the Tour de France is both his and Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s primary objective each season. But that does not mean 2025 is destined to be a write-off — especially with the Vuelta a España looming large on the horizon.

With Pogačar opting to sit out the Vuelta after an intensely demanding first half of the season (UAE Tour, a punishing spring classics campaign featuring all four Monuments—including his debut at Paris–Roubaix—followed by the Critérium du Dauphiné and the Tour de France), Vingegaard suddenly finds himself the clear favourite to take victory in Spain’s grand tour.

To date, Vingegaard has never won the Vuelta a España. He’s raced it twice:
2020 Vuelta a España – 46th overall, as a young talent in only his second WorldTour season.
2023 Vuelta a España – 2nd overall, after ‘gifting’ the title to teammate Sepp Kuss, finishing just 17 seconds back as a gesture of gratitude for Kuss’s tireless support during his two Tour de France wins.

Had Vingegaard truly wanted it, he could already have the Vuelta on his palmarès. But that wasn’t the case—and now, he finds himself with a golden opportunity to finally open his account in the third of cycling’s Grand Tours.

Inside Team Visma–Lease a Bike, there’s a clear understanding that the 2025 season needn’t be written off as a failure simply because of what transpired at the Tour. Let’s not forget that Visma is a Grand Tour team through and through. Their entire season revolves around the sport’s three marquee stage races. And they’ve already ticked off one of them.

With Simon Yates’s surprise triumph at the Giro d’Italia—sealed with a breathtaking solo ride on the Colle delle Finestre—Visma took the Corsa Rosa from under the noses of UAE Team Emirates XRG (with rising star Isaac del Toro) and EF Education–EasyPost (led by Richard Carapaz). Should Vingegaard live up to his billing and win the Vuelta, Visma will have claimed two of the three Grand Tours in 2025. That alone would mark the season a resounding success—worthy of, at the very least, an 8 out of 10.

All things considered, a Vuelta victory in 2025 feels almost essential for Vingegaard. While he may also have his eye on the World Championships in Rwanda—where he could capture his first rainbow jersey—the reality is that his 2025 campaign thus far has been rather subdued.

To be fair, the Dane was sidelined from racing for three months—following his withdrawal from Paris–Nice—due to a controversial decision by Visma. Since returning at the Critérium du Dauphiné, he’s yet to win a single stage there or at the Tour de France. His only victories this season?

The final individual time trial of the 2025 Volta ao Algarve
Overall classification win at the Volta ao Algarve 2025
Team time trial victory at Paris–Nice 2025

A strong showing at the Vuelta, especially given the mountain-heavy route right from the opening week, could see Vingegaard not only take the red jersey but also secure a handful of stage wins—five or six wouldn’t be out of the question in the right conditions.

And if he were to pair that with a triumph at the World Championships in Rwanda—where he’s set to make his debut—then any talk of 2025 being a failure would be silenced. In fact, it could go down as a season for the history books.

Will he do it? Time will tell.