PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 18 - Breakaway bingo on tricky hilly day

Stage 18 precedes two mountain days and a time-trial. For most riders in the race this is the final opportunity and all kinds of riders - Sprinters, classics riders and rouleurs - should try to make a move to try and win for the final time this race. We preview the stage ahead.

A day in the hills but it's quite difficult to predict a winner. The breakaway have terrain to thrive here, the whole day is hilly and the final half features several climbs of different lengths where we can expect explosive racing. The start of the day features two small climbs, the second of which 2.9 kilometers at 6.5%... The 179 kilometers feature a lot of climbing and most of it is in the final third.

The main climb of the day is a first category and also has bonus seconds at the top. The Puerto de Herrera is 5.6 kilometers at 8.3% and summits with 44 kilometers to go. The climb is steep and hard enough for the pure climbers to really make a difference. Closely after 2.9 kilometers at 4.6% that end with 33 kilometers to go.

The road flattens out after and in the final 15 kilometers rise again. Most notably, the final 3 kilometers are downhill after tackling a 2.3 kilometers at 5.1% where the gradients go up to 9%.

The Weather

Another cold and likely wet day; with some northern wind. A cross-headwind in the main climb of the day and a headwind in the final kilometers. A breakaway win remains rather certain but it makes it more complicated to succeed with long-range or small-group attacks.

The Favourites

The stage will go towards a breakaway. This is the final opportunity for most riders in the racing as the final three days are two mountain stages and a time-trial. Several types of riders actually stand a chance on this day and it can be very tactical. No GC team will want to control this day, Kaden Groves' Alpecin has won enough and stands little chance as is the case with Pavel Bittner's DSM. Israel have Corbin Strong but let's be honest, they stand much better chances of winning if he is in a breakaway.

The start of the stage is rather hard, and without anyone truly controlling I expect a few dozens riders in the head of the race for sure. We can split these in a few groups:

Climbers: Marc Soler, Brandon McNulty, Isaac Del Toro, William Lecerf Junior, Mattia Cattaneo, Filippo Zana, Ion Izagirre, Harold Tejada and Pablo Castrillo. The 5-kilometer climb will be a priority for these men. Now, it has to be said that several are great rouleurs and can be dangerous elsewhere, but mainly they can do some damage uphill - regardless if this earns them the victory or not. If they are in groups, then others will have to anticipate the climb.

Rouleurs: The most dangerous, I'd say. On the climb several riders will match each other. On smaller ascents or flat roads there won't be the same all-out commitment to close gaps. Victor Campenaerts, Stefan Küng, Mathias Vacek and Marco Frigo are extremely dangerous and can win as part of a small group or by themselves.

A sprint?: Well, a sprint is not impossible. Of course, not a big group one, but a sprint amongst a few riders. Above, the likes of Lecerf, Campenaerts, Vacek and Küng can do this well. But specially dangerous are the likes of Corbin Strong and Quinten Hermans for example. Jhonatan Narváez too, although he fits best in the final category.

Puncheurs: Specialists on the small climbs... They climb well enough to survive the big one, but have the explosiveness to attack the final one or pack a mean sprint. Some of the riders above fit well here but there are riders who can't rely solely on a sprint or long climb; but instead focus on the smaller sharper efforts. Attila Valter, Mauri Vansevenant, Dylan Teuns, Mauro Schmid and Felix Engelhardt are perfect examples for this.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 18:

*** Jhonatan Narváez, Marco Frigo
** Stefan Küng, Victor Campenaerts, Mauro Schmid, Mathias Vacek
* Attila Valter, Marc Soler, Brandon McNulty, Mattia Cattaneo, Isaac Del Toro, Quinten Hermans, Corbin Strong, Max Poole, Ion Izagirre, Pablo Castrillo

Pick: Marco Frigo