PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 10 - Will the GC turn on it's head again on hilly day?

The Vuelta a España changes face completely on stage 10. The riders fly north to Galicia with much lower temperatures for the first day of racing in the second week. We preview a day where the riders will still climb a lot and the pressure will be on.

The first day of the second week sees the riders in Galicia for a day in the mountains. They won't be too difficult, but there will be a sequence of climbs that make it very likely for a breakaway to succeed. GC action is also possible on the rugged finale into Baiona. 3000 meters of climbing starting in Ponteareas and right from the first kilometers there is a tough ascent.

This will be over 15 kilometers long at 4.3%. It will be enough to form a strong group up the road surely and one with strong climbers that can resist in the finale. The riders head towards the coast then, right by the northern border of Portugal, and then reach the final sequence of climbs where the stage should be decided.

The first is 6.3 kilometers at 5.6%, finishing with 55 kilometers to go. Quickly the riders find the second ascent which is 6 kilometers long at 5.7% but the first 2 are at 9% and can see serious attacks. This climb summits with 40 kilometers to go and afterwards the descent is both steep and technical into the coast. There will only be a few kilometers until the Alto de Mougas (or otherwise known as Monte da Groba).

This climb is 10 kilometers long at 6%. Not brutal, but hard, and ending with only 20 kilometers to the finish line. The descent will be fast and with 6 kilometers to go there is still a slight hilltop where an attack for the stage win may succeed... But by the coast it will be hard for anyone to make a successful chase in what are very twisty roads.

The Weather

A completely different weather status. Near the Atlantic and the northwest of Spain and Portugal the weather is completely different. 20 degrees, and some northwestern breeze... Cross and headwind in the finale of the stage both in the climbs and downhills.

The Favourites

GC Fight - The Vuelta is on fire, and we have no idea who will win it. It is an incredibly different Grand Tour to what we've grown used to because of the absence of the best climbers in the peloton. Ordinarily on a stage like this we would not really have attacks from the GC riders, but there is a good chance that this Tuesday it will happen.

Ben O'Connor continues in the lead of the race and with 3:53 minutes over Primoz Roglic. Today, the Australian showed that his form is indeed good and he can certainly hold his own on the long climbs if he doesn't have bad days - and the heat is now out of the equation, which favours him. Primoz Roglic has attacked in stages 7 and 8 where he had the legs, he will want to do it again, the climbs are more explosive and he should have the upper hand again. Enric Mas, Mikel Landa, Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov... There can be plenty allies if O'Connor does not have his best legs. Neither of them are explosive riders who should be able to drop the competition.

These may not only come on the climb (where there are also bonus seconds, if the breakaway isn't ahead) but downhill. Roglic descends well and the final kilometers still provide some space; this is a very open race. BORA can certainly use Florian Lipowitz and Aleksandr Vlasov as GC cards early in the day, to send to the breakaway and put pressure on their rivals. Stages 6 and 9 changed the GC completely with breakaways and with O'Connor still leading the race, I don't see any team going all-out to prevent some outsiders to go up the road. That is why Yates and David Gaudu climbed to the Top10 today. Richard Carapaz is an absolute wildcard, he can win or lose two minutes and neither is surprising. Carlos Rodríguez, Mattias Skjelmose, Lennert van Eetvelt and Sepp Kuss are also to note for a possible stage win.

Obviously, these last men and several others may again try to go on a breakaway to climb up the standings. This is the exact kind of profile where this can happen specially with the first climb. And there is a weird psychological situation happening where a rider 6 minutes away from the red jersey will not worry the "main favourites" such as Roglic and Mas because it sounds like they are distant from them; but in reality the gap is only of 2/3 minutes. Yates and Gaudu getting the freedom they did into Granada was very unusual and shows this.

To this possible equation we can add George Bennett, Lorenzo Fortunato, Guillaume Martin, Jack Haig, Harold Tejada, Eddie Dunbar... It's men that have a lot to gain if the break makes it they can jump into the Top10; but if it goes poorly they are all sacrificing a spot outside the Top10 which doesn't mean much (and they can always try a different day again). So yes, many attacks should come early in the day. Tactical ones too, not just riders with the sole purpose of stage win or GC, teammates of leaders can be quite key later on.

Purely for a stage win up front we can also consider the likes of Michael Woods, Max Poole, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Isaac Del Toro, Matthew Riccitello, Attila Valter, Ion Izagirre, Mattia Cattaneo, Laurens de Plus, Mauri Vansevenant, Giulio Ciccone, Jay Vine, Marc Soler, Oier Lazkano, Luca Vergallito and who knows... Wout van Aert could even do it as the climbs are not as steep. This is a day for climbers however, tactical moves won't make too much difference.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 10:

*** Primoz Roglic, Ben O'Connor
** Lennert van Eetvelt, Harold Tejada, Eddie Dunbar, Marc Soler
* Enric Mas, Mikel Landa, Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, George Bennett, Guillaume Martin, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Jay Vine, Giulio Ciccone, Oier Lazkano, Luca Vergallito

Pick: Marc Soler