ANALYSIS | Juan Ayuso replaces Pogacar, but can he win the Vuelta a Espana?

UAE Team Emirates XRG has confirmed its lineup for the 2025 Vuelta a España, and the biggest news is who’s not going. Tadej Pogacar, fresh off his fourth Tour de France win, is skipping the Spanish Grand Tour to recover and reset for his remaining season goals, namely the world championships. “His body was asking him to rest,” the team explained, closing the door on what would have been his attempt to win all three Grand Tours. With Pogacar out, leadership duties fall to Juan Ayuso and João Almeida, two riders aiming to seize the opportunity, and maybe even win it all.

“We arrive at the Vuelta a España with a clear plan, focused on João and Juan,” said Matxín, one of UAE’s top directors. “Both are contenders for the overall and complement each other perfectly. The team around them brings depth and experience, key in the mountains and time trials.”

He confirmed Pogacar’s absence was a mutual decision. “This year, the idea was for Tadej to return to the Vuelta, but the season has been long for him. We talked and agreed that the best thing for him now is to rest well and prepare for his final season goals."

Ayuso, who wasn’t originally on the Vuelta list, now has a clear shot at leading the team. His performance in this race has always been strong, third overall in 2022 and fourth in 2023. This year, with Almeida recovering from injury and Pogacar resting, the path is open for him to challenge for the red jersey. Here's a look at the three biggest factors that could shape Ayuso’s bid to win the Vuelta a España.

Crashing out of the Giro d’Italia earlier this year was a hard lesson for Ayuso. He had been riding well, positioned among the GC favorites, before a series of falls ended his campaign. If there’s one thing that can kill a Grand Tour before it starts, it’s bad positioning and misfortune in the chaotic opening stages. And that’s where Ayuso will need to improve.

It’s obvious advice for any contender: stay upright. But many GC hopes have vanished in week one carnage, just ask Primoz Roglic. Ayuso must read the race well, stay alert, and avoid repeating the kind of Giro mistakes that cost him a legitimate shot at the pink jersey. Knowing where to be, and where not to be, can be the difference between riding into Madrid in red or going home early again.

João Almeida has proven himself to be one of the most dependable Grand Tour riders in the peloton, but almost always in a supporting role. He’s built his reputation as a super-domestique, and now, for the first time in a long time, he enters a Grand Tour as a designated leader. The problem? He’s coming off a heavy crash in the Tour de France and hasn’t raced since.

“João Almeida will be the leader of UAE Team Emirates - XRG in the Vuelta a España 2025 alongside Juan Ayuso,” the team confirmed, but if Almeida isn’t in peak condition, leadership may naturally shift to Ayuso. The Portuguese rider is expected to lose time in the early mountain stages, especially with no tune-up races before the Vuelta. Ayuso, on the other hand, has a more calculated buildup, racing the Clásica de San Sebastián and the Tour of Poland to sharpen form.

If Almeida falters early, UAE won’t hesitate to back the stronger option. That could be Ayuso.

Without Pogacar in the Vuelta, Jonas Vingegaard becomes the overwhelming favourite for the victory. The Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader finished second in this year’s Tour de France and pushed Pogacar to the absolute limit in the Alps. But even for a rider of Vingegaard’s pedigree, two peak performances in a single season come with risk. After a draining Tour, how much will he have left?

In the final week of the Tour, Vingegaard looked stronger than ever, but he also cracked slightly on Hautacam and lost key seconds in the time trial. There’s no question he’ll arrive in Spain with top billing, but that spotlight also brings pressure. If fatigue catches up, or if he simply can’t hit the same level without a rival like Pogacar pushing him, the door is wide open.

Ayuso has raced sparingly since the Giro and will be fresher. He knows the Vuelta. He’s been on the podium, and he’s overdue for a big win. If he can avoid early crashes, handle internal team dynamics, and take advantage of any slip from Vingegaard, the red jersey might not be completely out of reach.