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PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2023 Stage 2 - Bettiol sees first GC test on dangerous hilly day
CyclingWednesday, 18 January 2023 at 23:10
Stage 2 of the Tour Down Under, into Victor Harbor won't be too different from the previous day, open for both classics riders, rouleurs and sprinters to succeed depending on what race scenario develops. The overall classification can explode if the race is attacked and Alberto Bettiol's lead will be put to the test.
It is a bit more difficult day to predict, immediately starting with an uphill ramp which may see some riders form a strong breakaway. It's a hilly day with some unpredictability as the riders head back into the sea. With 68 kilometers to go they will find a 3 kilometer climb at 6.8% however the legs will be saved towards the end of the stage.
Stage 2: Birhton - Victor Harbor, 154.8 kilometers
Nettle Hill: 2Km; 7.7%; 22Km to go
It will be in Nettle Hill that the outcome of the stage can be played out. Not a brutal climb, it's 2 kilometers at 7.7% and summits with 22 kilometers to go. What will happen here is unknown but as the race lacks a queen stage attacks are very viable here, both on the ascent and right after. The toughest ramps come towards the end, and what follows is a rolling plateau before a finale that has very little of flat.
A fast descent will follow, then 3 kilometers at 2.9% that provide further springboard for attacks which finishes with 10 kilometers to go only. The road into Victor Harbor is then simple with no meaningful technical features. The finale is flat, but you can't expect any serious leadout if it does come to a sprint.
Tour Down Under stage 2 finale
The Weather
Tour Down Under stage 2 map
A block headwind from the southeast. An overall cross-headwind throughout the day will make things slower and calmer. Nettle Hill won't see any meaningful difference however the run-up to the line will again see headwind which is not favourable for attackers. If a sprint is to decide the stage, it will be a crosswind, nevertheless beneficial to those in the wheel.
The Favourites
It's a tricky day to predict, but I think the weather conditions vastly favour a sprint. The stage's design towards the end is not bad for attackers, Nettle Hill is a sharp climb and with the absence of a true queen stage and the small notion of everyone's form, tomorrow could see a decisive attack towards the GC. The climb will with no doubt see many riders dropped, and the rolling terrain would not be perfect for a chase. However the headwind in the final kilometers means that riding in a group will be very favourable, and even if it's a small group, attacks will struggle to keep their advantage.
Hence the stage can be put into two different scenarios:
Sprint - Now, the most likely in my opinion. Some will struggle in the climb, but there is enough quality and willpower to keep the race controlled. The likes of Michael Matthews and Ethan Hayter will thrive in this type of climb and can even be there if it's a small GC group. They are both GC contenders and their teams would surely want to control the race if the group was small enough, as a victory could be very likely in the case of a sprint. Bryan Coquard and Hugo Hofstetter can not be discounted aswell in such a finale, and Kaden Groves definitely has the room to surprise.
Caleb Ewan is a big question. Sometimes he can climb superbly, others at the very bottom of the peloton. He looks to be on good form however so I would say he can do alright, but the Australian team won't have real support for him if it's necessary. Alessandro Covi also sprinted to a fourth place today which was impressive and has rightfully placed himself as a big contender for tomorrow's stage.
The likes of today's stage winner Phil Bauhaus, Gerben Thijssen, Emils Liepins, Marius Mayrhofer and Paul Penhoët will likely struggle more, and will need the support of their teams to be able to contest the stage. Marco Haller and Corbin Strong would be very decent shots for a small bunch sprint.
Attacks - I think that attacks will nevertheless happen, but their effect remains to be seen. I think on the climb itself no-one will truly be able to get away as there will be a lot of marking, but right after the summit is where the danger lies, specially if strong rouleurs make it over and distance themselves. In the climb however I expect the likes of Jay Vine and Luke Plapp to be sharp, aswell as Simon Yates and Pello Bilbao.
A mix of these with riders such as Ben O'Connor, Robert Stannard, Magnus Sheffield, Marc Hirschi or Max Schachmann can be very very dangeorus. It will be a great test of form aswell to have a good idea of who will likely be in the fight for the race's win. Alberto Bettiol himself is a very well suited rider for this type of day, he and Mikkel Honoré can be contenders for the win if they don't race defensively.
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Prediction Time
*** Matthews, Hayter
** Covi, Coquard, Groves
* Ewan, Hofstetter, Plapp, Bilbao, Sheffield, Bettiol, Haller
Pick: Michael Matthews
Poll
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