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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 2 - Will Tadej Pogacar attack Jonas Vingegaard in San Luca? Romain Bardet on a mission to keep yellow jersey
CyclingSunday, 30 June 2024 at 10:54
The Tour de France has started off in the most brilliant fashion with a first day that has seen a lot of drama, action among the GC riders and a fan-favourite victory for Romain Bardet who has won and taken the yellow jersey on his final Tour de France. It will be hard to forget such performance, but tomorrow on stage 2 we already have an important GC day where differences can be made. We preview another hilly and difficult day.
Stage 2 may be the first day of the race where the overall classification can explode. The first day certainly has potential for it, but on the second day of racing the riders climb up the Madona di San Luca on two occasions. The climb - which is raced every year at the Giro dell'Emilia is short but very steep and explosive, and can create differences before descending back into town for the finale.
Stage 2: Cesenatico - Bologna, 201 kilometers
201 kilometers on the menu, it's another long day on the bike and it features an easy start, and rough finale. We focus on the final 70 kilometers. The peloton tackles two hilltops of 1.9Km at 6.3% and 2.8Km at 7.7%. The latter comes with 50 kilometers to go, and then comes the double ascent of the Madona di San Luca - the first very steep climb of the race, which can lead to meaningful GC differences.
If the climb is attacked on the first lap and weaknesses are exposed, it can lead to a very bad start for some GC riders. But likely the main favourites will save their bullets for the final time up the climb. The climb is 1.9 kilometers long at 10.4% and has the maximum gradient of 16%. It's a grueling small ring climb, long enough for it to fit the climbers better than the classics specialists. The ascents finish with 31 and 12.5 kilometers to go.
The stage does not finish atop the ascent however, unlike the Italian classic which it headlines. A short descent comes right before another small hilltop of 5% throughout a whole kilometer. A technical descent then leads the riders down to Bologna. The final 6 kilometers then are completely flat and non-technical. Gaps can be opened or closed, but this will definitely be a day only to be contested by those that can climb well whilst you can definitely expect a fight for the yellow jersey.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 2
No wind to take note of but the heat will be there. Over 30 degrees, another very hard day to be on the bike, but without early climbs there won't be riders off the back all day long.
The Favourites
Can Romain Bardet keep the yellow jersey? Good form is there with no doubt and motivation will be there too after such an iconic victory and this special jersey on his shoulders for the first time in his career. Definitely DSM will go all-out to save it and even if Bardet can't keep up with the big favourites, Frank van den Broek has definitely shown to have the legs to do it as well.
This is a day for the GC riders, at least the climb is. What happens in the following kilometers depends on the situation at the summit. Two names should have clear goal of taking seconds on rivals here: Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic. First and second at the Giro dell'Emilia last year, UAE want to test Jonas Vingegaard, but did not today as Juan Ayuso clearly struggled and they didn't want to lose a GC weapon already. Tomorrow I don't expect them then to make moves early on, but in the final ascent on such gradients there is no excuse for Pogacar to not try and take advantage of the current situation. In BORA - hansgrohe I don't think there is the particular desire to attack but this is a climb where Primoz Roglic thrives, it's ideal for him and he should try to take advantage of it.
This isn't the ideal ascent for Jonas Vingegaard and he may not have the best legs, so it's a day to ride conservative. Matteo Jorgenson and Tiesj Benoot could do quite well in this terrain and provide support after the climb if necessary, whilst Wout van Aert could in theory win in a sprint if it comes back together after - although, despite today's good signs, I think that is a hard situation to see happening.
UAE have Adam Yates and João Almeida who can attack if the climb doesn't actually destroy the peloton - as happened on the first day last year. Could we expect an attack from Remco Evenepoel? I don't think so, he said he will race smart, and although an early move could be dangerous from him I don't think he'll risk.
On the climb we could see Simon Yates, Carlos Rodríguez, Giulio Ciccone, Richard Carapaz and Enric Mas be near the front or even hit the front. Santiago Buitrago too, on his best day, but that's not what we saw today. A few classics riders can do better today and seriously fight for the win: I reckon Stephen Williams can do very well on such a climb and his teammate Derek Gee is a total wildcard; whilst EF duo Alberto Bettiol and Ben Healy may anticipate (or try to resist and then strike with a late attack, that can work as they do not carry GC responsibilities and won't be covered much).
It's unlikely that it comes down to a meaningful group sprint but you can definitely consider someone like Tom Pidcock or Maxim van Gils to fight for victory and maybe even take it if it's just down to the riders who climb the best. The likes of Pello Bilbao and Alex Aranburu are definitely options as well. Riders like Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen and Romain Grégoire can also be considered but only in the scenario of a very conservative race.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 2:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel, Maxim van Gils, Tom Pidcock
* Jonas Vingegaard, Adam Yates, João Almeida, Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson, Simon Yates, Giulio Ciccone, Stephen Williams, Alberto Bettiol, Pello Bilbao, Derek Gee, Richard Carapaz
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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