PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 5 - Jonas Vingegaard to tackle Juan Ayuso on important mountain stage

Jonas Vingegaard and Juan Ayuso headline an important day at Tirreno-Adriatico. Stage 5 is the first big climbing challenge. Although it is not the queen stage, the climbs in the route can make important differences.

Four rolling climbs before reaching the main climb of the day. None are too hard and none are right at the start of the stage, they may not influence the outcome of the day much, but will get some fatigue in. A short day however, this may not be too much.

The main feature of the day is San Giacomo. On the eve of the queen stage, the climb may not see too much action however. It ends with 23 kilometers to go, the climb is very windy and has a technical descent which may influence attacks.

On the opposite side, the climb is rather consistent. Most of it is in 6% gradients, with some slight kilometers at 7/8% and the final 3 kilometers at 4/5%. An opportunity to attack, sure, but a climb where slipstreaming will be possible.

Teams may instead opt to play with their numbers and race for time in the slight ascent to the line. Valle Castellana hosts the finale. 2.1 kilometers at 5% summits with 8 kilometers to go. We then have a flat section.

The rise to the line then will be interesting. Both a solo or sprint finish can be interesting, the final few hundred meters see the gradients once again rise (to the maximum of 8%) and a few hairpins into a scenic town. A nice end to a day of racing.

The Weather

No real wind and no rain to take into consideration. Actually not a bad weather day in the mountains, unlike most of what we've had so far.

The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - This is not a perfect day for him, it's not too difficult and the final ascent is not too hard. However this is Vingegaard we're talking about and at Gran Camiño he showed that he doesn't really have problem in attacking from far. I didn't think he would do so, but that changed when he lost 22 seconds to Juan Ayuso on the time-trial. There is no certainty that he can actually take this time on Monte Petrano. Depending on one stage to take that time back is risky, so I do expect Visma to push throughout the whole day and try to make the difference on the climb. Despite not being the best positioned GC rider, he will still be the main covered one however, and the finale is not ideal for solo riders, so it won't be an easy day. Cian Uijtdebroeks will also be a rider to keep under eye.

Juan Ayuso - Ayuso is now not the race leader, but that is good for him in this case. Lidl-Trek take over the lead with Jonathan Milan so UAE do not have responsibility to lead the peloton throughout the day. They can take it more conservative. I believe in a good day from Isaac Del Toro however it is up to Ayuso himself to match Vingegaard or any other that attacks in San Giacomo. If he keeps everything as it is into stage 6 however, it is very viable that he can win this race overall.

Daniel Martínez - BORA have a dangerous team. Jai Hindey is a rider for the pure mountains so this day is not ideal for him, he does not have the explosivity but he looks to have the form and I think that he can definitely launch some attacks. BORA's advantage is in the numbers, in the final kilometers if we've got a short group they can do something. Martínez looked brilliant at the Volta ao Algarve and if they're both there they can fight for the win. Martínez also has a very strong sprint, if it comes down to that in the final hilltop.

It's a day to figure out where everyone is. Don't expect any other team to be working much or even attacking I'd say on the main climb. Everyone waits for Vingegaard. Most riders will gauge their form. Some riders we can have higher expectations than others. Climbers such as Tao Geoghegan Hart and Enric Mas surely will enjoy this terrain; others in good form can surprise and be in the fight for the podium such as Kévin Vauquelin and Antonio Tiberi.

Overall however it's a very equal field, not too many riders are at peak form too. Bahrain have Damiano Caruso and Wout Poels, INEOS have Tom Pidcock and Thymen Arensman, DSM have Romain Bardet and Max Poole... Even Q36.5 have David de la Cruz and Damien Howson who can certainly perform on a day like this. All these teams have the advantage of having two cards to play; however this should only work for having more certainties of having riders among the best. Tactically, they can only take advantage of it if we have a very conservative San Giacomo climb.

Do not discard other riders like Richard Carapaz although he is not in his best form. Filippo Zana, Cristián Rodríguez, Lorenzo Fortunato, Guillaume Martin and Davide Piganzoli will all be outsiders to take into consideration for a minor result.

Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 5:

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Juan Ayuso
** Daniel Martínez, Jai Hindley, Tao Geoghegan Hart
* Enric Mas, Kévin Vauquelin, Antonio Tiberi, Damiano Caruso, Tom Pidcock, Max Poole, Romain Bardet, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Isaac Del Toro

Pick: Daniel Martínez